case study on landslide in india

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Published: 13 July 2022

The tale of three landslides in the Western Ghats, India: lessons to be learnt

R. S. Ajin 1 ,
D. Nandakumar 2 ,
A. Rajaneesh 3 ,
T. Oommen 4 ,
Yunus P. Ali 5 &
K. S. Sajinkumar 3

Geoenvironmental Disasters volume 9 , Article number: 16 ( 2022 ) Cite this article

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In recent years, landslides have become a typical monsoon calamity in the Western Ghats region of Kerala, India. In addition to property damage, heavy rainfall (36% above normal) and multiple landslides (4728) killed 48 people in 2018. This tendency continued throughout the monsoon seasons of 2019, 2020, and 2021, resulting in the deaths of over 100 people. Anomalous precipitation is ascribed to the frequent development of low-pressure in the surrounding oceans. Using ground real data and satellite imagery, we evaluated the features of three large landslides in the state of Kerala, which occurred during the monsoon season of 2021. Our investigation found that the Kokkayar landslide was triggered by anthropogenic-related agricultural activities, the Plappally landslide by geomorphic and tectonic processes as well as human involvement, and the Kavali landslide by forest fragmentation with dense vegetation on thin soil. The triggering mechanism for all three of these landslides, however, is the intense rainfall of 266 mm in less than 24 h. Thus, an accurate and precise forecast of rainfall can be used to define a threshold for an early warning, which will be vital for saving lives.

Introduction

Catastrophic landslides have become a common monsoonal phenomenon in India’s southwest state of Kerala, which is located in the foothills of the prominent mountain chain, the Western Ghats. The anomalous rainfall of 2018, which was about 36% more than the normal rainfall (Vishnu et al. 2019 ), triggered 4728 landslides (Hao et al. 2020 ) and killed 48 people. These landslides occurred in a single storm-event i.e., 16th August 2018. The following years saw further landslides, with the monsoon season of 2019 witnessing disastrous landslides such as the one at Puthumala, which killed 17 people, and the Kavalappara, which killed another 59 people (Sajinkumar and Oommen 2020 ; Wadhawan et al. 2020 ). Both these landslides occurred on 8th August 2019. The Pettimudi landslide of 6th August 2020 was the most tragic one that killed 70 people and devastated several hutments in a tea plantation region (Achu et al. 2021 ; Sajinkumar and Oommen 2021 ). Year 2021 also experienced cataclysmic landslides on 16th October with the most disastrous ones being at Kokkayar in Idukki district and Plappally and Kavali, near Koottickal in Kottayam district. All these devastating landslides that occurred since 2018 showed an uneven geographic distribution (Fig. 1 a, b), pointing to the possibility that many parts of the Western Ghats are susceptible to landslides, though these landslides are located along the same valley (Fig. 1 c). In this study, we narrate the ground real data and interpretation of high-resolution remotely sensed images of the three landslides- Kokkayar, Plappally and Kavali (Fig. 2 , a, b, c) that occurred in 2021. We also employed ethnographic techniques, such as in-depth interviews with elderly impacted individuals, to learn about their shared experiences. These three landslides are amongst the tens of landslides in the vicinity of the study area (Fig. 3 ). The reason for selecting these three landslides is because of their catastrophic nature resulting in many human casualties. We believe that the narrative of these three landslides applies to other landslides that occurred in the immediate vicinity of this area.

(Source: Google Earth) ( b ) Study area with elevation map draped over hill shade map showing major landslides since 2018 (Elevation data is ALOS PALSAR) ( c ) Google Earth image showing the spatial distribution of these three landslides along a valley

Location map ( a ) South India

Field photos of ( a ) Kokkayar landslide ( b ) Plappally landslide ( c ) Kavali landslide

A distant view of the hills in the study area showing several landslides

Site and situation of the landslides

Kokkayar landslide.

Kokkayar landslide (9°34′21''N; 76°53′13''E) of Peermade taluk in the Idukki district of Kerala has killed seven people and completely destroyed seven houses. The dimension of this landslide is 500 m (length) × 40 m (avg. width) × 1 m (avg. thickness). Rubber plantations predominantly occupy the area with intermittent clusters of mixed vegetation. The area is utilized for agriculture through terrace cultivation with the cut slope protected by rubble masonry wall. Rain pits were constructed on this slope. Houses are constructed by the cut and fill method but without any support in the cut slope. Most of the houses have dug wells and the depth to water level is shallow (< 2 m) whereas during the landslide these were found overflowing (as per local witness), pointing to the fully saturated column of soil. Numerous springs spout from this area (Fig. 4 a). This spouting phenomenon existed before landslides because dwellings have drains to flush away storm water (Fig. 4 b). These observations indicate that a seasonal first and/or second-order stream flows through this area, which might have been modified during the course of agriculture and/or habitation. A few fresh gullies have been formed, to which water is now confined.

a Spouting of spring at Kokkayar landslide ( b ) A demolished house having provisions for draining storm water ( c ) A highly-weathered joint in the country hornblende biotite gneiss ( d ) Soil profile showing dislodged material, lateritic soil, saprock and weathered bedrock

The in-depth interviews with the local people revealed that the vegetation, mainly rubber trees were clear-felled after slaughter tapping a few years prior to the event. Contour bunding and rain-pits were made prior to replanting the rubber saplings. These interventions seem to have taken place ignoring the natural hydrological requirement of letting the first/second order streams to have its free flow channels. Such interventions may have contributed to destabilizing of soil on the slopes.

The area is characterized by outcrops of hornblende biotite gneiss. The general trend of this foliated rock is 173°/35 W. The preponderance of feldspar in this rock and its subsequent alteration through weathering has resulted in the formation of clay. The rock is highly jointed, and weathering is found to be extensive along these joints (Fig. 4 c). The crown of the landslide is occupied by bouldery outcrops of this rock with no soil cover. Hence, during monsoon, all the water in the crown part has surcharged the immediately downslope column of lateritic soil causing an increase in pore-water pressure. Near the flanks of the landslide, the soil profile shows dislodged soil followed by lateritic soil of 1 m thickness and another 1 m thick saprolite (Fig. 4 d). This is further followed by bedrock. The dislodged material was finally dumped into the Pullakayar, a tributary of Manimala River.

Plappally landslide

Plappally landslide (9°37′3''N; 76°52′21''E) in Kanjirapally taluk of Kottayam district has killed four people and demolished two buildings. This landslide of 500 m (length) × 20 (avg. width) × 1 m (avg. thickness) was initiated in a rubber plantation whereas its runout stretches through areas of different land use types. In the Google Earth image (before landslide), the upslope in which the landslide occurred is confined is a truncated spur and its right boundary is marked by a straight lower-order river course, indicating a lineament (Fig. 5 a). Due to the broader surface area of this spur, the run-off zone is more extensive. The storm water when crossing the barren rock outcrop, situated downslope, facilitates sudden surcharge to the thin veneer of soil lying immediately downslope. It is in this zone the recent landslide was initiated. The surcharge zone can be well seen in the high-resolution (3 m) False Colour Composite (FCC) of Planet Lab (Fig. 5 b). The truncated spur together with the bulged foothill suggests this as a paleo-landslide, within which the recent landslide occurred.

a Google Earth image showing a distant view of Plappally landslide showing a suspected lineament, remnants of paleolandslide and its associated truncated spur ( b ) 3 m resolution FCC of Planet Lab image showing the landslide runout and its surcharge area ( c ) Storm water gushing through the uprooted house location ( d ) The ruins of the devastated house, which was constructed along the course of a lower-order stream ( e ) Seepage along the joints of hornblende biotite gneiss

This landslide is also confined to a lower-order stream course. The two buildings, which were destroyed, were constructed precisely on the river course. Water gushes through this during the monsoon (Fig. 5 c), whereas it is dry during the non-monsoon season (Fig. 5 d) showing its seasonal nature. But seepage can be seen along the joints of the country rock, hornblende biotite gneiss (Fig. 5 e). Here again, in the upper slope, where the houses stood before the landslide, plantation with young rubber trees existed, which indicates a similar influencing factor like at Kokkayar.

Kavali landslide

Six people died and one house was demolished by the Kavali landslide, which is 250 m (length) × 15 (avg. width) × 2 m (avg. thickness) in dimension. Hornblende biotite gneiss is the country rock, which is highly weathered and jointed. The attitude of this highly foliated rock is 315°/80NE. Here too, spring water is tapped for domestic purposes. The destroyed house was constructed in a cut-slope, but the cut-slope is still retained after the landslide. The cut-slope profile exhibits lateritic soil, saprolite, and weathered bedrock. The area is characterized by thick vegetation when compared to the sparse vegetation in the adjacent area. This thick mixed vegetation with rubber plantation is the major crop, followed by nutmeg, arecanut, and teak. Google Earth image (Fig. 6 a) also revealed thick vegetation. A Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) map was created using the high-resolution Planet Lab image to understand the area’s land use. NDVI revealed that the landslide occurred in a densely vegetated area when compared to other areas consisting of a wide variety of land uses like moderate vegetation, grassland, barren outcrop, and built-up. Usually, landslides are less reported in densely vegetated areas (cf. Alcantara-Ayala et al. 2006 ; Reichenbach et al. 2014 ). In contrast to this, a recent study by Lan et al. ( 2020 ) suggests that a densely vegetated slope decreases its stability. This study has been concurred with by the recent findings of Hao et al. ( 2022 ) wherein most of the landslides that occurred in Kerala during 2018 are spatially associated with forest land. However, a closer look at Fig. 6 a, b reveals forest fragmentation and breaking-off of the contiguity of the forest canopy, creating scattered and fragmented forest islands. Studies reveal that such a process could compromise landscape integrity (Ramachandra and Kumar 2011 ; Batar et al. 2021 ).

a Google Earth image showing a distant view of Kavali landslide and forest fragmentation ( b ) NDVI of Kavali area depicting dense vegetation in landslide occurred area

The Western Ghats, especially its southern part encompassing the entire state of Kerala, witness landslides often during monsoon season. Since 2018, the noteworthy feature of the monsoon has been that it triggers landslides during the sporadic high-intensity rainfall (cf. Vishnu et al. 2019 , 2020 ; Yunus et al. 2021 ; Sajinkumar et al. 2022 ). Though several studies have been conducted in this region, and measures suggested were not adopted, we present here specific omnipresent reasons that facilitate landslides in this region.

Introspection of land use policy

The recent landslide susceptibility map of Kerala (cf. Sajinkumar and Oommen 2021 ; Escobar-Wolf et al. 2021 ) shows an area of 3300 and 2886 km 2 as highly and moderately susceptible to landslides, respectively. It will be an arduous task to implement stringent measures such as habitation- and construction-free zones in these areas. However, some of the landslide-facilitating practices that are common, may be inadvertently so, can be averted. Kerala is predominantly an agrarian state, and the general agricultural land use seen are cash crops, with rubber plantations occupying the midlands and tea, coffee and cardamom in the highlands. All the three landslides occurred in the midlands, especially where rubber plantation dominates the land use. The construction of rain pits is a common practice in almost all rubber estates. Major disturbance to the slope stability occurs when fully matured rubber trees are slaughtered after their life span of ~ 20 years, and fresh saplings are planted in a broad pit of 1 m 3 size. Rain pits are also dug here. The method of stubble mulching is not practiced here and large area of land will be disturbed when the trees are uprooted using machinery. Hence, avoiding rain pits, planting pits, and promoting stubble mulching practice will help reduce the probability of landslide occurrences. Avoiding rain pits and planting pits in susceptible landslide areas will help increase run-off rather than infiltration. In addition, all agricultural techniques on the hilly slope affects the lower-order drainage, by obstructing it with rubble-masonry walls, redirecting it to a more hazardous slope, or by constructing houses. These lower-order courses, except in thickly vegetated forest areas, are usually seasonal, and during monsoon season, the normal flow of water is thus disturbed by these practices. Hence, a stringent land use policy to avoid such practices in agricultural fields is a pressing requirement.

Rainfall- the sole triggering factor

As mentioned, these three landslides were also triggered by a sporadic-high intensity rainfall of > 266 mm in a single day (Fig. 7 ) but with a 5-day antecedent rainfall of only 109.9 mm. The comparatively higher rainfall of 48.8 (2nd October), 45.4 (8th October and 69.6 mm (11th October) might have saturated the soil column and the 16th October anomalous event was sufficient enough to trigger landslides. In order to limit the risk of rainfall-induced landslides, an accurate and exact rainfall forecast that allows for the issuance of early warnings based on the rainfall threshold of the area is essential (Weidner et al. 2018 ). The sparse density of rain gauges and manual operation methods make things difficult. For e.g., the rain gauge station nearest to these three landslides is Kanjirapally, approximately 10 km away from this landslide, which is grossly inadequate to capture the micro-climatic conditions of the susceptible areas. Moreover, this rain gauge station is a manual one with daily rainfall recording on the succeeding day at 8.30 am ( www.imd.gov.in ). Having automated rain gauges that report rain information near real-time will be critical for developing early warning systems.

Hyetograph of Kanjirappally rain gauge, which is the nearest to the landslide affected area. Note the prominent 266 mm rainfall on the landslide day

Soil thickness and soil-rock interface plane

The hilly area of the entire state of Kerala is characterized by a thin veneer of unconsolidated soil, resting above the massive Precambrian crystalline rock except for plateau regions like Munnar and Nelliyampathy (Sajinkumar and Anbazhagan 2015 ). Usually, the glide plane of the landslides will be the contact plane of these two litho-units (cf. Istiyanti et al. 2021 ). Thus, wherever the landslide occurs, the bedrock will be exposed, which can be seen in all these three landslides. Hence, along with the understanding of landslide susceptibility, the soil thickness of the area and the saturation capacity of that soil column have to be investigated. The contact between these two litho-units is stable in a plain or gentler slope (Fig. 8 a) whereas it will be in a meta-stable position when in a steep slope (cf. Getachew and Meten 2021 ; Puente-Sotomayor et al. 2021 ) (Fig. 8 b). This equilibrium will be lost when the soil column is saturated by water during the monsoon season (Fig. 8 c).

Sketch depicting the contact between unconsolidated soil and massive crystalline Precambrian rocks along the Western Ghats part of Kerala. ( a–c ) shows the different stages of stability of these two lithounits

The three landslides that occurred on 16th October 2021 are located in the same valley, and were triggered by a high-intensity rainfall of 266 mm in one day. These similarities are never the same when conditioning factors are analyzed. The steep slopes of the hilly regions where all three landslides occurred originally contained natural contiguous forests that may have held the thin soil and regolith layer together. The modern landscape, however, is dominated by human interventions such as the replacement of natural vegetation with plantations, highways, and human settlements. These measures facilitated the triggering of the landslides by a sudden storm of intense rainfall (cf. Lahai et al. 2021 ). However, a closer check using ground reality and satellite photographs revealed that the Kokkayar landslide was completely caused by humans, whereas the Plappally landslide was also affected by geomorphic and tectonic causes. The third site, the Kavali landslide, was caused by forest fragmentation on the forest island. Consequently, regardless of the contributing components, the common and vital feature to be researched is the rainfall dynamics, which can be converted into early warning systems, thereby saving countless lives.

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Acknowledgements

The authors thank Kerala State Disaster Management Authority (KSDMA) for facilitating fieldwork in these areas. Jobin Sebastian, a freelance photographer and paraglide trainer, is highly thanked for providing photos (Figs. 1 d and 2 ). The lab work was carried out at the Laboratory for Earth Resources Information System (LERIS) housed at the Department of Geology, University of Kerala. LERIS is a collaborative initiative of Indian Space Research Organization and University of Kerala.

The author declare that there is no funding in the manuscript.

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Ajin, R.S., Nandakumar, D., Rajaneesh, A. et al. The tale of three landslides in the Western Ghats, India: lessons to be learnt. Geoenviron Disasters 9 , 16 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1186/s40677-022-00218-1

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Landslide in India Buries Dozens, Killing at Least 25

Days of heavy rain had loosened the soil. India and neighboring Bangladesh have had record rainfall and severe flooding in the past two months.

By Karan Deep Singh

Published July 1, 2022 Updated July 2, 2022

At least 25 people were killed and more feared dead, after days of heavy rainfall set off a landslide in India’s remote and mountainous northeastern state of Manipur.

It is the latest tragedy in a country that has been plagued by catastrophic rainfall and flooding in recent months. The extreme weather has destroyed communities, forced evacuations and threatened lives.

On Saturday, rescue workers in Manipur were still looking for dozens of people, who were instantly buried under layers of mud and rocks overnight Wednesday, when the landslide occurred in the Noney District. Indian television stations showed rescue personnel carrying mud-covered bodies on stretchers.

More rainfall has made rescue efforts even more challenging, Nongthombam Biren Singh, the chief minister of Manipur State, said on Twitter . He said 25 bodies had been recovered and 18 injured people had been rescued. “38 persons are still missing,” he added.

Many of the people who died and those still trapped under the rubble had been in the area to work on the construction of a railroad station deep in the mountains. Some were soldiers in the Indian Army. Others were railway workers, local villagers and laborers.

“The entire country is deeply saddened by loss of lives,” Mr. Singh said on Friday.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi said on Twitter that he had reviewed the situation in Manipur and had assured Mr. Singh of “all possible support” from the central government. “I pray for the safety of all those affected,” he said. “My thoughts are with the bereaved families.”

Weeks of heavy rainfall from the monsoons have already killed more than 100 people and left millions homeless in India’s northeast and in neighboring Bangladesh. More than 60 people were killed in May during days of flooding, landslides and thunderstorms that left many people without food and drinking water and isolated them by cutting off the internet.

Tying climate change to an extreme weather event requires extensive scientific analysis. But climate change is often a contributing factor.

Scientists have said that India and Bangladesh are particularly vulnerable to climate change because of their proximity to the warm tropical waters of the Indian Ocean and the Bay of Bengal, which are increasingly experiencing heat waves . The rising sea temperatures have led to dry conditions in some parts of the Indian subcontinent and a significant increase in rainfall in other areas, according to a study published in January by the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology in Pune.

In India’s northeastern state of Assam, one of the worst affected areas during the pre-monsoon and monsoon season, a paramilitary camp was inundated by floodwaters on Friday after persistent rain over the last three days.

Mr. Singh, the chief minister, said the authorities were expecting bad weather to persist in Manipur. “The situation in the landslide affected area,” he said, “is still serious.”

The India Meteorological Department forecast heavy rainfall on Sunday in at least 14 states, including Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Tripura and Nagaland, all in the northeast. The heavy rains delayed flights and submerged roads in India’s capital, New Delhi, on Thursday.

Karan Deep Singh is a reporter and visual journalist based in New Delhi, India. He previously worked for The Wall Street Journal, where he was part of a team that was named a finalist for the 2020 Pulitzer Prize in Investigative Reporting and nominated for a national Emmy Award. More about Karan Deep Singh

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A Detailed study on Landslides in India

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Published 21st Aug, 2021

Introduction

Landslides have caused massive damage of life and property during extremely heavy rain across India. The Kedarnath landslide in Uttarakhand in June 2013, caused by flash floods that resulted in over 5,000 deaths, was identified as the most tragic such disaster. Recently a landslide hit Kinnaur district in Himachal Pradesh, which happened for the second time in 15 days, killing at least 14 people and burying many others. The tragedy was exacerbated by heavy rain, hailstones, and debris on vehicles, including a state-of-the-art transport bus on National Highway 5.

15% of India's landmass is prone to landslides, however, its vulnerability will increase in the future due to climate change and human pressure. This improved size can be considered by adopting a multidisciplinary approach that integrates all aspects of disaster risk management namely mitigation, preparedness, response, and rehabilitation.

What is landslide?

Landslides are the rapid movement of rock, soil, and vegetation under a slope under the influence of gravity. It can be caused by natural factors, e.g. Heavy rain, earthquakes, or can be caused by extreme human disturbance of the slope - stability. Landslides are rarely at the same level as earthquakes or volcanic events. The magnitude and magnitude of landslides, however, depends on the geological structure, the slope angle of the slope, the nature of the mountain rocks, and the interaction of people with the slope. As per Geological Survey of India, the window of economic loss due to landslides may reach between 1-2% of the gross national product in many developing countries.

Causes of Landslides

The main causes of landslides are

Rain and snow
Excessive or continuous rainfall can lead to massive landslides in the high slopes where National Highways and roads are built.
The Nashri region between BatoteRamban-Ramsu, and Banihal (Jammu and Kashmir) is prone to landslides. Landslides in this area are especially difficult during the rainy season and winter when car traffic is disrupted for a few days.
Earthquakes and volcanic eruptions
Earthquakes are a major cause of landslides in mountainous areas. In India, Landslides are more common in the rolling hills of the Tertiary Period, such as the Himalayas.
In the Kashmir region, the 1905 earthquake caused a landslide in the small Himalayas and the Greater Himalayas in which several thousand people lost their lives.
Volcanoes also cause landslides in mountainous areas.
Mining, Mining and Cutting Road
The continued extraction of coal, minerals, and minerals from the mines and quarries and the construction of roads by cutting slopes on the rolling hills create the ideal conditions for the availability of soil extraction.
Such landslides can be seen throughout the Himalayas and in the Eastern and Western Ghats.
Loading about housing
The unplanned growth of cities and towns in hilly areas without exploring soil and rock is also an important cause of landslides.
The eastern slope of Nanital (Uttarakhand) is sinking due to the heavy load of hotels and residential buildings.
Deforestation
Deforestation and other human activities also cause landslides. Most landslides are minor involving some blocks up to a few meters across. But some are big enough to cause disaster. They can bury roads, buildings, and other structures.
The negative effects of erosion can be reduced by observing deforestation on mountain slopes, by following the building codes of these areas, and by avoiding the construction of buildings on steep slopes.

India among the countries most affected by landslides due to human activities:

Earthquakes caused by human activities are increasing worldwide and India is among the worst-affected countries, accounting for at least 28% of such incidents over the past 12 years, according to a published study.
Investigators have collected data on more than 4,800 deadly earthquakes that occurred from 2004 to 2016, leaving behind those caused by earthquakes.
More than 56,000 people have been killed by landslides worldwide during this time, most of them affected by one slope, according to a study based on the Global Fatal Landslide Database (GFLD).
At least 700 of these deadly landslides were caused by construction work, illegal mining, and uncontrolled rolling of hills.
While the trend is global, Asia has been found to be the most affected continent where 75% of landslides occurred, with the highest number reported near the Himalayan Arc.
All 10 countries in the world of deadly humanitarian catastrophes are located in Asia. India accounts for 20% of these cases.
The study states that fatal soil erosion is on the rise in India, where landslides caused by construction occur during this period, followed by China (9%), Pakistan (6%), the Philippines (5%), Nepal (5%) and Malaysia (5%).).
We knew that people were putting increasing pressure on the local community, but it was surprising to find the obvious trend in the database that deadly landslides caused by construction, illegal mountain cutting and illegal mines were increasing worldwide during this time.

Vulnerability profile of India

In India, the hazard affects at least 15% of the world's land area (approximately 0.49 million square km.) It is most common in geodynamical operating areas in the Himalayan and Arakan-Yoma areas in the north-eastern part of the country and as in the more stable areas of Meghalaya Plateau, Western Ghats and Nilgiri Hills. The Nilgiri Mountains, located at the confluence of the Eastern and Western Ghats, bear countless scars from landslides.

Consequences of landslides

Loss of Life: The most devastating effect of landslides is the loss of precious human and animal life. In the latest Kinnaur Landslide, 14 deaths have already been reported.
Restrictions on Travel: Mud, rocks, and sloping debris create a barrier to critical transport routes such as highways, railways, etc. This prevents the movement of goods and people.
Infrastructure Damage: Several houses, buildings, roads, and other infrastructure are damaged whenever an earthquake occurs.
Economic Loss: The amount of money spent restores lost infrastructure, mass rehabilitation, and the provision of relief services to affected people.
Risk of Water Availability: When soil erosion occurs on slopes of a river valley, the size of the sliding can reach the bottom of the valley and cause partial or complete closure of the river channel. This pile of debris leading to the river closure is often called the Landslide dam. It can affect the availability of water to nearby people.

Measures taken for land management in India

National Disaster Risk Management Strategy (2019): Addresses all aspects of disaster risk reduction and management, including risk mapping, monitoring and early warning systems, awareness programs, skills development, training, regulations and policies, stabilization and landslide reduction, etc.
Hazard zones have to be identified and specific slides to be stabilized and managed in addition to monitoring and early warning systems to be placed at selected sites.
Hazard mapping should be done to locate areas commonly prone to landslides. It is always advisable to adopt area-specific measures to deal with landslides.
Restriction on the construction and other developmental activities such as roads and dams, limiting agriculture to valleys and areas with a moderate slope, and control on the development of large settlements in high vulnerability zones, should be enforced.
Landslide Hazard, vulnerability and Risk Assessment
Multi – Hazard Conceptualisation
Landslide Remediation practice
Research and Development, monitoring, and early warning
Knowledge network and management
Capacity building and Training
Public awareness and Education
Emergency preparedness and response
Regulation and Enforcement

Suggestive Measures

Firstly, provinces such as Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand in high-risk areas should be especially vigilant in pursuing disruptive projects. There should be a proper implementation of the environmental impact assessment procedures prior to the start of mining or dam construction.
Second, there should be the adoption of small-scale zoning processes for mountains and other high-risk regions.
Third, more funding should be made to planning and demolition agencies and reducing structures to improve disaster management.
Fourthly, there should be the involvement of trained staff in the area to strengthen the reduction of public awareness programs and programs.
Fifth, mitigation strategies such as limiting agriculture in the valleys and areas with moderate slopes, promoting large-scale deforestation programs, and building masses to reduce water flow, etc.

The conclusion

Increased human encroachment on the environment has led to an increase in the number of natural disasters.
However, the National Disaster Response Force under The Disaster Management Act, 2005 has carried out many rescue operations by providing assistance and assistance to the affected country, including deployment, at the request of Government, Armed Forces, Central Military, and similar communications, air and other supplies. They have also worked to increase public awareness to reduce the impact of these natural disasters by organizing preparedness campaigns.

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Indian judge says billion-dollar ayurvedic company has taken the public 'for a ride'

Omkar Khandekar

Yoga guru Baba Ramdev, the brand ambassador for the billion dollar company Patanjali Ayurved, addresses the media during a launch of "premium products" in New Delhi. Rahul Singh/ANI via Reuters Connect hide caption

Yoga guru Baba Ramdev, the brand ambassador for the billion dollar company Patanjali Ayurved, addresses the media during a launch of "premium products" in New Delhi.

MUMBAI – Imagine if there were a magic pill to ward off COVID-19. Or if you could cure diabetes with vegetable juices and herbal pills instead of controlling it with insulin medication. Or if yoga and breathing exercises were all you need to do to get rid of asthma.

These are all claims made by Patanjali Ayurved, one of India's biggest manufacturers of traditional ayurvedic products – reflecting the beliefs of a 3,000-year-old tradition of Hindu healing practices. The word "ayurveda" comes from the Sanskrit terms "ayur" (life) and "veda" (science or knowledge.) Its practitioners use herbs, animal extracts and minerals, processed according to centuries-old texts.

Many scientists have expressed concerns over the lack of research into the safety and efficacy of ayurvedic products. The United States, for example, categorizes these products as dietary supplements and not as medicinal drugs that can cure or prevent illness.

Nonetheless, Ayurveda enjoys widespread acceptance among Indians. And under India's Hindu-nationalist government that took power in 2014, ayurveda and other alternative systems of medicine have received unprecedented government support. India's ministry of alternative medicine gets nearly $500 million a year. The government also promotes ayurveda through its international trade and diplomatic channels. All this set Patanjali's fortunes soaring.

Supreme Court weighs in

But now the Supreme Court of India has temporarily banned Patanjali – named after a Hindu mystic best known for his writings on yoga – from advertising some of its products. This is an interim order, which means Patanjali can challenge it – but so far they have not.

In fact, neither Patanjali nor the government have commented on the case .

"The entire country has been taken for a ride," Ahsanuddin Amanullah, one of the two judges conducting the court hearing, told the lawyer representing the government, according to an article in livelaw.com, a news website that covers courts in India. "You shut your eyes!"

The Indian Medical Association had brought the case to court in August 2022, claiming that Patanjali and its brand ambassador Baba Ramdev made a series of false claims against evidence-backed modern medicine and its practitioners, and spread misinformation about COVID-19 vaccines. Their petition also referred to instances where Ramdev lambasted modern medicine as a "stupid and bankrupt science" at a yoga session.

The trigger was a series of Patanjali advertisements in Indian newspapers in July 2022 claiming that ayurvedic products could cure chronic conditions like diabetes, high blood pressure, heart diseases and autoimmune conditions. The Indian Medical Association's petition alleged that such claims were in violation of India's Drugs and Magic Remedies (Objectionable Advertisements) Act.

Politics of medicine

There's a political angle to this story as well. The company's public face – yoga guru Baba Ramdev – is a vocal supporter of India's ruling party, the BJP, and Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Modi even inaugurated Patanjali's ayurvedic research facility in 2017.

The supreme court's order, although temporary, is a blow to advocates of ayurvedic medicines, including the prime minister and his Hindu nationalist party. Some scientists have accused their government of promoting these alternative medicines at the expense of modern medicine, partly as a way to glorify India's culture and history.

"One of the political ideas of this government is to glorify the Hindu tradition," says Dhrubajyoti Mukherjee, president of the Breakthrough Science Society , an organization that promotes scientific thinking. "But in the name of our glorious past, the government is propagating obscure, unscientific ideas."

Consider the Modi government's own relationship to Patanjali.

A 2017 investigation by the news agency Reuters found the company has received more than an estimated $46 million in discounts for land acquisitions in states controlled by the BJP.

Millions in sales, a billion in income

A few months after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, India's health minister at the time, Harsh Vardhan participated in the company's launch of pills, where Ramdev, the yoga guru, claimed the pills showed "100 percent favorable results" during clinical trials on patients.

Despite experts flagging the lack of evidence, the company said it sold 2.5 million kits in six months, consisting of the tablets to ward off COVID-19 and bottled oils that would allegedly boost immunity.

And the company is making an enormous amount of money: Its income was over $1.3 billion in the financial year 2021-22, with profits of $74 million before taxes.

A previous court order in November 2023 forbade the company from issuing advertisements with misleading claims. The very next day, Ramdev held a press conference about remedies for high blood pressure and referred to "lies spread by allopathy," a reference to science-based medicine, according to the lawyer for the Indian Medical Association.

Critics have long alleged that the company's defiance of court orders is likely because of its proximity with India's ruling party, the BJP. The company has received multiple notices and warnings from regulatory agencies and advertising watchdogs in the past.

A spokesperson for Patanjali did not respond to an interview request from NPR.

Addressing the overall impact of misinformation about ayurvedic treatments, Dr . Jayesh Lele , vice president of the Indian Medical Association, says "Our worry is people are being misguided. We have got people who've left our treatment saying their kidneys will be able to function properly [using ayurvedic medicines] and ended up with renal failure. The same happened with patients suffering from hepatitis, who've got the wrong medicine and ended up with further problems. And if you say every day that modern medicine is bad, that is not acceptable."

Government cash promotes traditional treatments

The action against Patanjali comes at a time there's been a culture shift in the government's approach toward health care. India has a dire shortage of qualified health-care personnel and infrastructure gaps. Yet, it spends less than 3% of its GDP (gross domestic product) on health care.

After Modi was sworn in as prime minister in 2014, he ordered the creation of a separate ministry for traditional medicines. Despite continuing doubts over such systems' efficacy, the ministry's budgetary allocation has increased three-fold: from nearly $160 million to around $500 million. In 2020, the Modi government also allowed ayurvedic practitioners to perform some surgeries in public hospitals. The Indian medical association called for a nationwide strike soon after, protesting what it said was a "retrograde step of mixing the systems."

Kishor Patwardhan, professor of ayurveda at the Banaras Hindu University in the city of Varanasi, disagrees with this form of state support. "Ayurveda can only be promoted using good evidence," he says.

The Modi government has also been accused of diluting scientific education, cutting back on research and teaching mythology as history. One ruling party politician, former minister for higher education Satyapal Singh, dismissed Darwin's theory of evolution; one Hindu nationalist academic claimed test-tube babies originated in ancient India. In 2015, the prime minister pointed to Hindu scriptures as proof that plastic surgery existed in ancient India.

"These ideas are coming from important political people, sometimes even the PM," says Mukherjee of the Breakthrough Science Society . "People have faith in leaders. If something comes from them, it damages the society."

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Telangana: Former state intel chief named prime accused in phone tapping case

Earlier, Three additional SPs were arrested in connection with the case

Telangana Intelligence Chief Prabhakar Rao with KCR

The Hyderabad police has named former state intelligence bureau chief T. Prabhakar Rao as the prime accused in the illegal phone tapping case. A lookout notice has been issued in the name of Rao, who is believed to have absconded to the United States.

Rao, who was the Special Intelligence Bureau chief during K. Chandrashekar Rao's regime, has reportedly absconded to the United States. The former intelligence chief allegedly ordered the illegal tapping of phones during previous regime. Besides Rao, police have also issued notice against then deputy commissioner of police of Commissioner's Task Force (a wing of Hyderabad Police) P. Radhakrishna and a senior executive of a Telugu TV channel.

Two additional superintendents of police were arrested by Hyderabad Police in connection with the case and for destroying certain computer systems and official data on Saturday. The police officials--Additional Deputy Commissioner of Police Thirupathanna and Additional Superintendent of Police N. Bhujanga Rao--who had earlier worked as additional superintendents of police in the Special Intelligence Bureau (SIB) and Intelligence Department respectively, were on Sunday remanded to judicial custody.

The two additional superintendents of police were accused of colluding with suspended DSP of the SIB, D. Praneeth Rao, who was earlier arrested by Hyderabad police for allegedly erasing the intelligence information from various electronic gadgets as well as for alleged phone tapping during the previous BRS government. "During questioning, the two police officials confessed to their involvement in the reported crimes, including conspiracy to monitor private persons illegally by developing their profiles, abusing their official positions; to cause disappearance of evidence by destroying public property to conceal their involvement in collusion with the already arrested D. Praneeth Kumar alias Praneeth Rao, DSP (under suspension), and some other persons," the release said. Further investigation is under progress, they said.

On March 13, Praneeth Rao, who is accused of developing profiles of unknown persons and monitoring them clandestinely, without authorisation and illegally, besides destroying certain computer systems and official data, was arrested, police earlier said. Praneeth Rao was recently suspended by the Telangana government. He was a DSP during the previous BRS dispensation and was subsequently working in the office of the Director General of Police (DGP). He was earlier accused of tapping the phones of opposition party leaders.

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New Delhi: India’s total fertility rate saw a significant decline from 6.18 in 1950 to 1.91 in 2021, and may further drop to 1.3 by 2050 and 1.04 by 2100, says a new study published in The Lancet . The total fertility rate (TFR) is the average number of children born to a woman over her lifetime.

For a population to remain stable, a TFR of 2.1 children per woman is required, known as the replacement level. When the fertility rate falls below the replacement level, populations begin to shrink . In India, the replacement level is 2.1.

The study, published in The Lancet journal Wednesday, reveals that India recorded more than 1.6 crore live births in 1950, which rose to 2.24 crore in 2021. However, the number of live births is expected to plummet to 1.3 crore by 2050, and further to 0.3 crore in 2100.

This is in line with the global fertility rate, which has gone down from 4.84 in 1950 to 2.23 in 2021 and will further drop to 1.59 by 2100, states the study, which was based on the Global Burden of Diseases (GBD), Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2021 — a research effort led by the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington.

The GBD report says that by 2050, fertility rates in three-quarters of all countries will not be high enough to support population growth.

In 2021, the GBD researchers predicted a demographically split world in the 21st century due to high birth rates in low-income countries, particularly in western and eastern sub-Saharan Africa.

The figures, the GBD researchers highlighted, pose a threat to sustainable growth as 155 of the world’s 204 countries and territories included in the research will have fertility rates below population replacement by 2050, which the researchers believe will increase to 198 countries by 2100.

Also Read: Educated women are having fewer children. It’s not good for India’s demographic dividend

Demographic divide

The fertility study further brings to light a demographic divide across the globe when it comes to live births. In 1950, one-third of the global live births occurred in Southeast Asia, East Asia, and Oceania.

However, currently, this concentration has shifted to the sub-Saharan African region, which, after 2011, accounted for the largest share of live births — increasing from 8 percent in 1950 to nearly 30 percent by 2021. This region’s TFR declined less sharply — from 6.94 in 1950 to 4.29 in 2021 — compared to other regions.

According to the study , the proportion of live births in low-income areas worldwide would almost quadruple from 18 percent in 2021 to 35 percent in 2100. By 2100, one out of every two children born will be born in sub-Saharan Africa alone, it added.

According to the analysis presented in The Lancet , this change in the distribution of live births will result in a “demographically divided world” where high-income nations will have to deal with the effects of an ageing population and a shrinking workforce, while low-income areas will struggle with high birth rates and resource constraints.

The research further predicts that except for four regions — South Korea, Andorra, The Bahamas, and Kuwait — every country and region will see a decline in TFR between 2021 and 2100.

The two nations projected to have the lowest predicted fertility rates in 2050 are Puerto Rico (0.84) and South Korea (0.82). South Korea won’t be affected because the TFR for the country is predicted to remain unchanged from 0.82 in 2021 till 2100.

Bhutan (0.69) and Maldives (0.77) are predicted to have the lowest TFR in 2100.

Reasons for the decline

The study attributes the fall in fertility rates to increased access to education for women and modern contraceptives, which could accelerate fertility reductions and lower birth rates, especially in high-fertility countries.

These two reasons, the study further says, can also be an effective way to control the population in low-income countries, which are predicted to have higher TFR in the future.

While the declining fertility rates might appear as a green signal for the environment, the uneven concentration of live births can lead to tense situations across the globe, says the study.

The plummeting fertility rate in developed or high-income countries may result in an ageing population, burdening national health insurance, social security programmes, and healthcare infrastructure. They will also face labour shortages, according to the study. On the other hand, more live births in low-income nations may jeopardise the security of food, water, and other resources — making reduction in child mortality even more challenging. The study indicates that political instability and security difficulties would occur in these sensitive areas.

(Edited by Richa Mishra)

Also Read: India’s problem of plenty: Why the country needs to make use of its demographic dividend, and quickly

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“According to the study, the proportion of live births in low-income areas worldwide would almost quadruple from 18 percent in 2021 to 35 percent in 2100. By 2100, one out of every two children born will be born in sub-Saharan Africa alone, it added.”

I think it should be”almost double” and not “almost quadruple”. 35 per cent is almost the DOUBLE of 18 per cent. Thank you.

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Critical assessment of landslide failure forecasting methods with case histories: a comparative study of INV, MINV, SLO, and VOA

Technical Note
Published: 16 March 2024

Cite this article

Sohrab Sharifi ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-7958-5405 1 ,
Renato Macciotta 1 &
Michael T. Hendry 1

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Forecasting landslide failure time is important for understanding the kinematics of landslides. In addition to the famous inverse velocity method (INV), other methods such as the minimum inverse velocity method (MINV), slope gradient (SLO), and velocity over acceleration (VOA) have been proposed. Despite the importance of adopting a forecasting technique, very limited insights regarding the mentioned methods have been published. This study aims to address this gap by conducting a comparative examination of INV, MINV, SLO, and VOA on a comprehensive database of 75 historical landslides. This access to a large volume of historical data enabled us to assess the advantages and limitations of each method. Results show that MINV is the only method with better performance than INV, by 23% on average and, in 32% of cases, by at least 100%. On the other hand, the accuracy of SLO forecasts is on average 87% worse than INV forecasts. VOA results have a 6.84 to 11.68 times higher error compared to INV. VOA is highly sensitive, even more so than INV, to scatter in measurements, but the positive effect of filtration is offset by data artifacts caused by the data filtration technique. SLO, owing to its mathematical configuration, is rather insensitive to measurement scatter. Finally, the failure velocities, as calibrated by MINV, are presented for each failure mode; this can enhance the detection of the onset of acceleration and be used toward more adaptive warning thresholds in monitoring systems depending on the site setting.

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This research was completed through the (Canadian) Railway Ground Hazard Research Program, which is funded by the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada (NSERC; ALLRP 549684-19), Canadian National Railway, Canadian Pacific Railway, and Transport Canada. Additionally, synthetic-aperture radar interferometry data for sets 69 and 70 were kindly provided by TRE Altamira.

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Sharifi, S., Macciotta, R. & Hendry, M.T. Critical assessment of landslide failure forecasting methods with case histories: a comparative study of INV, MINV, SLO, and VOA. Landslides (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-024-02237-5

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The tale of three landslides in the Western Ghats, India: lessons to be learnt

Introduction

Site and situation of the landslides

Plappally landslide

Kavali landslide

Introspection of land use policy

Rainfall- the sole triggering factor

Soil thickness and soil-rock interface plane

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Critical assessment of landslide failure forecasting methods with case histories: a comparative study of INV, MINV, SLO, and VOA

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