tires for you case assignment

“Tires For You” Case Study

Refer to your reading for this unit in the Coyle text for this assignment. Read the “Tires for You, Inc. (TFY) Case Study,” on page 251. In a 2–4 page paper, answer the four forecasting activity case questions.

As you answer the questions, relate the TFY story to any similar experiences you have had in an organization. (You may choose any organization about which you have sufficient knowledge to compare, including the organization with which you are currently employed, a former employer, or the organization you have chosen to study for your project.)

Please complete Q1, Q2 & Q6. Submit a “One Page” Word written analysis accompanied by the completed Excel Template I’ve attached, or you can write-over my template to produce your results. Please fill-in the missing cells using appropriate Excel formula and detail to support your answers   Note that the Excel Template I am providing was produced using different data, so you need to over-write these numbers and use the data information provided for Case 7-1 on pages 251-252.

There are “Four Types” of forecasting techniques;

• Simple Moving Average,
• Weighted Moving Average (3-Month Moving Avg),
• Exponential Smoothing,
• Trend Adjusted Exponential Smoothing
• Seasonal Influenced Forecast.

Giants farm director Kyle Haines on Bishop, Bednar, Eldridge, McCray, Martin, and more

When the San Francisco Giants lost seven position players to the injured list over an eight-day span earlier this month, their front office and coaching staff had to scramble to replace half of the team’s non-pitching roster.

That’s not all. They also had to replace the replacements at Triple-A Sacramento. And replace those replacements, too. Which meant nobody’s phone was buzzing and chirping more than the one that belonged to Giants farm director Kyle Haines. The Giants needed coverage at the major-league level. But they also had to make sure that there was someone to catch that night’s game at Double-A Richmond. It’s never easy to put together the puzzle of organizational assignments, especially after reserve lists were whittled down from 180 to 165 players. It’s even tougher to complete the puzzle when the dominoes continue to fall around you.

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The payoff for all that scrambling comes from watching homegrown players not only get opportunities in the major leagues but make the most of them while helping to win games. So it’s been invigorating for Haines and the Giants’ player development staff over the past couple weeks as players like Heliot Ramos , Luis Matos , Randy Rodríguez , and Marco Luciano have helped the Giants not only step in for injured players but help fuel the Giants to four consecutive series victories while surging over .500 for the season.

It was a rough beginning across the organization as some of the Giants’ better hitting and pitching prospects got off to slow starts or dealt with injuries. But the late-May resurgence at the big-league level has been mirrored in the minor leagues, where players like Double-A outfielder Grant McCray and Low-A first baseman Bryce Eldridge have gone on tears while another premier prospect, teenage shortstop Walker Martin , got his pro career off to a roaring start in the Arizona Complex League. Former first-round picks Hunter Bishop and Will Bednar , who had become after-thoughts on prospect lists, are finally on the field and moving up the ladder after missing nearly all of the last two seasons with injuries, too.

There’s certainly a lot more to talk about on the Giants PD front than there would’ve been a few weeks ago. Haines made time this week to talk about some of that progress while also detailing some of the challenges that his department faces when confronted with slow starts or massive major-league needs.

We all see the moves that are made on the major-league level in response to a wave of injuries. But how do you experience a week like the one the Giants had earlier this month? What goes into the inner workings of promoting players and making sure you have coverage at every level?

Kyle Haines: The first thought is supporting the major-league team because that’s always the main goal. But there are so many people focused on either calling players up or finding players from other organizations such as getting (catcher) Curt Casali (from the Cubs system). A lot of the evaluation is just figuring how long these (injured) guys are going to be out. When you’re rushing someone to Triple A, is it a short-term need or a long-term need? And also, who do you want to give those opportunities to? You have to be concerned with potential disruption of development but you’re also looking at who deserves to be pushed to a new challenge, who is there to back up, who could use those reps on a short term. And then, obviously, you’re backfilling for those players you move up as well. So it really is a cascading effect for the entire organization. And you’re always trying to make sure the players are taken care of and their families as well.

Outfielder Hunter Bishop is an interesting case study. He was off to a nice start at Double-A Richmond (.242/.314/.358 in 26 games) after missing so much time following the back injuries and Tommy John surgery. But he wasn’t exactly dominating his level, either. Clearly, Sacramento needed outfielders. How did you arrive at the decision to promote him and how much of it was based on need?

Hunter just needed to get on the field somewhere, honestly, whether it was Richmond, Sacramento, even (High-A) Eugene. It almost didn’t matter. After all his battles to get healthy, he just needed to see professional pitching and be on the field. And really, he played pretty well at Richmond when you compare him to league average in the Eastern League, which has been really tough on hitters. You have to look beyond whether a player has a 1.000 OPS or has gaudy numbers on the surface. How did they perform compared to league average? And Hunter checked a lot of boxes. He’s played outfield really well. He’s had a lot of good at-bats. Some of his numbers were a little inconsistent from game to game or series to series. But he earned that promotion to Sacramento based on what he’d shown.

Was he rushed a little because of the injuries (to others)? That’s fair to say. But in some regards, he’s shown he was ready for another challenge and he’s handled it really well. Sometimes the under-the-hood observations from people who are there day to day can mean more than the stat line. And good for him. He’s made us look pretty smart by going there and playing well. He’s so naturally gifted. If you’re a fan, he’s the type of guy who pops out for doing special things on the field. We know there are going to be hot weeks and cold weeks because he doesn’t have nearly as much experience as your average Triple-A player. But he’s a dynamic player. We’ve played him mostly in center and he’ll get experience at all three. But center field makes sense depending on who else is on the roster. He’s done a nice job out there.

BISHOP BOMB pic.twitter.com/ZyoWcCoqI1 — Sacramento River Cats (@RiverCats) May 17, 2024

Is it possible that Bishop could make his big-league debut this year?

I don’t think anything should be dismissed but it would feel aggressive. Seems like Sacramento all year would make a lot of sense, but who knows? He’s got the talent to make things happen. We’ll see how it unfolds and how consistent he can be. Typically I think most minor-league players need 1,500 at-bats. When I was playing, that’s what the coaches would say. He’s significantly below that (727 plate appearances) and he probably needs a whole season in the minor leagues before he’s ready for a major-league opportunity. But you never do yourself any favors as an organization when you close a door like that.

There are a lot of positives over the past couple weeks but before we delve into some of those players, I’m curious about how you and your staff react when guys get off to rough starts. Do you second guess where you started them? How much time do you give players to settle in before you start to think about moving them down a level?

Well, a lot of the guys in our top prospect group, so to speak, who might have been seen as slow starters were dealing with injuries. Bryce Eldridge swung the bat well in spring training and early on, then had the hamstring grab at him. Wade Meckler had the wrist and is just getting going in the Arizona Complex League now. Grant McCray was healthy, and I don’t know to explain it, but he was not good in April last year, either. It seems he just needed a little time to get adjusted to a new league, and we’re seeing more of that. The jumps are huge between levels now — bigger than it’s ever been in the past. Some players and especially prospects, who tend to be young for their level, need runway to get adjusted to new challenges.

But I think we’ve had some really good stories here as well. We’ve been one of the more winning teams across minor-league baseball (all levels are a combined 20 games over .500) and that’s included contributions from all kinds of players. Slow starts aren’t fun but they happen and that’s why you don’t hit the panic button over an April performance.

McCray hit .132 in April. He’s hitting over .300 in May and just won Eastern League Player of the Week honors after collecting 15 hits in a nine-game span, including three doubles, three triples and two homers. How rapidly could he rise this season?

He’s still 23 years old, you know? There will be guys picked in this year’s draft that will be younger than him. We know when he’s going good how dynamic he can be. When we signed him out of high school, we knew we were getting a talented player who needed a lot of experience and would be a slow developer. That’s what we’ve seen. But he can take a game over really fast. He’s shown that in the last month. Next steps for him will be consistency. We’re looking for the lows to be more OK than low.

Grant McCray was 3 for 5 with a double in Friday’s victory over Bowie. pic.twitter.com/fN8X9rKk9O — SFGProspects (@SFGProspects) May 25, 2024

Matos, Ramos and Luciano aren’t just players who came up through the farm system. They’re players whom you’ve known for some time. What was it like for you to watch them not only have personal success in the big leagues, but in some ways, rescue the season for the Giants?

I’m always biased but you’ve heard me for years talk about some of our players being a lot better than they get credit for in the prospect-type rankings. Camilo Doval or Randy Rodríguez, for example. Ryan Walker . Even Pat Bailey. We want homegrown players so badly in our organization that there’s this push that they have to dominate from their first day and there’s not a lot of patience for their development. Randy is a great example of a guy who had to go through ups and downs. You have to stay with the process of getting him there. Or you look at a Pat Bailey who’s almost like a Brandon Crawford -type where the defense was way more major-league ready than the bat was. So their development timeline gets pushed up and the bat has to develop in the big leagues. That’s what you’re seeing now.

From a morale standpoint, we know our job is not to carry the major-league team. There’s going to be trades, free-agent additions. We just want to do our part and when we see guys go up and put new life into the team and the fan base, we know our processes are resulting in good things. That really motivates the people working really hard behind the scenes.

With Ramos and Luciano especially, we’re seeing a huge improvement in at-bat quality. Who did the most to help bring them along?

The Triple-A staff deserves a lot of credit. It always takes a village, including strength and conditioning, mental skills, the manager. All these people play a factor. But that Triple-A staff has to keep players motivated who might be disappointed — keeping them focused on growing and not sulking after they’ve been sent down. That staff, Dave Brundage, Damon Minor, does a fantastic job. It’s almost the same group that helped us integrate players like Mike Yastrzemski and LaMonte Wade Jr. when they first came here in trades. It could be players from other organizations who need a good platform to grow from, too. They’ve done a great job with everybody.

There’s no short-season league anymore. Now this year, the Giants along with every other organization who had two Complex League teams had to reduce to one. How has that impacted assignments and development decisions?

Some other teams maybe have pushed guys into Low A a little faster. We’ve been careful not to rush guys into Low A. It seems like the industry is trying to figure out whether the complex league or Low A is going to be better for development. Honestly, some nights, the complex league can look better than Low A from a quality of baseball standpoint just because there’s more rehab players in the league. The one thing that’s apparent is that rushing players can ruin them really fast. We want to make sure guys can get up to game speed first because that complex league tends to be very young. You can set players back if you’re not careful.

A lot of folks have been eagerly awaiting Walker Martin’s pro debut after he signed for $3 million as a second-round pick out of a Colorado high school last year. Hitting two homers in his fifth game is certainly one way to attract attention. Were you in attendance when he had his big day last Monday?

I was. He hit one to left field, one to left center. Both fastballs away. He looks good at shortstop, too. Hopefully it’s something good to build off because he’s had some weird and frustrating injuries — the hamstring that seemed to hang around forever, and last summer, an oblique strain. You end up not being able to swing, throw or run for a while. We’ll see if a game like that helps him breathe a little bit and helps him take off.

Is Martin’s ceiling as high as anyone you have in your system?

I think he can be right up there with anybody in the game. He was a high school quarterback, he’s close to 6-foot-4, maybe 215 (pounds). He’s a bigger shortstop. He’s strong, left-handed bat, athletic, high character, high makeup. He’s a great ball of athleticism to work with. There’s big upside. It’s an interesting profile. He just didn’t get as much exposure against top talent, which wasn’t any fault of his. He didn’t face the kind of competition that someone like Bryce Eldridge did playing for Team USA.

Walker Martin hit his first two professional home runs today 🚀 pic.twitter.com/G1L8hfZDpw — Milb Central (@milb_central) May 27, 2024

Clearly the organization wasn’t shy about sending out Eldridge to a full-season affiliate this season. He seems to have found his stride quickly at Low-A San Jose after missing time with the hamstring injury. He just put together a 15-game hitting streak in which he batted .358 with three home runs. Could the 19-year-old be ready to move up the ladder to Eugene anytime soon?

I don’t think so. Rushing him up another level isn’t on our radar. He’s doing great where he’s at. He’s working every day with (hitting coach) Travis Ishikawa, who was a high school draftee himself, so he’s getting a lot of knowledge about hitting and first base play. He’s still missed some time. There’s no reason to rush him up through the system. It’s been exciting, but he’ll go through ups and downs as 19-year-olds do. Low A is a big jump for high school kids and he’s handled it really well. There’s a lot to be excited about with him.

Rayner Arias is another low-level hitting prospect who gets a lot of buzz and has a lot of potential upside after such a tremendous debut in the Dominican Summer League last year. But the 18-year-old fractured his wrist for the second time. What’s his outlook now?

Yeah, both times it happened diving in the outfield. This last one happened in extended spring. It’s a smaller fracture. Last year’s was a pretty bad injury. We’ll get that healed up and do a rehab progression to get him ready to play and see where it goes. There’s a magnifying glass on younger and younger players every year. These are the guys who deserve to be recognized for their potential but it’s still so far away. We’re talking about 16-year-olds, 17-year-olds. You just want them to focus on developing.

While we are updating injuries, what is the status of Will Kempner, Spencer Miles and Liam Simon? They were your picks in the third, fourth and fifth round of the pitching-heavy 2022 draft but none of them have thrown a pitch yet this season.

Kempner had a foot injury that ended up requiring surgery in the offseason. He’ll be out a while longer. Liam Simon is doing well from Tommy John last year. We’re hoping there’s a rehab stint in the near future. He’s throwing full-intent bullpens. Same with Spencer Miles. He had back surgery last year and is rehabbing a forearm flexor strain now. Those guys are around (rehabbing big leaguers) Robbie Ray and Austin Warren every day in Arizona. They’re forming a good group down there and motivating each other. Hopefully in the near future, they can get going.

What’s been your evaluation of Will Bednar, your top pick in the 2021 draft? Is he finally getting past the lower back injury that’s kept him out of action for the past year and a half?

He’s been fantastic. He’s looking strong and healthy. He’s finally in a good space. He’s been frustrated, so it’s improved his morale to be healthy again. He just needed time to heal the stress (back) reaction. It’s been a lot of rehab and core work. His next appearance will be in Eugene. He’s pitched fantastic at San Jose. The stuff’s ticked up, touching 95 mph, the slider’s been good. He’s the pitcher we saw in college (when he was the Most Outstanding Player in the College World Series for Mississippi State). He’s confident again and that’s been awesome to see. We’ll see how that translates.

Perhaps nobody’s development path has been as unique as your top pick from the 2022 draft. A lot of folks were surprised to see left-hander and former two-way player Reggie Crawford get promoted to Triple A recently. President of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi made it sound like there’s an excellent chance that Crawford will make his major-league debut later this season even though he’s thrown a total of just 34 professional innings. What have the conversations been like around Crawford’s development?

Any time frame (for a debut) will be dictated by major-league need but we talk about it all the time: the main goal of development is to get them on the field and keep them on the field. Reggie has been able to do that. He’s shown the electric stuff. He’s used his three-pitch mix really well. He’s not just overpowering minor leaguers with the fastball. He’s regained feel for the slider and the changeup has been a nice story because he didn’t have that until he started rehabbing with us. The hitters have to think about more than just a hard thrower when they face him now. Triple A is tough on pitchers for a lot of reasons. It’s the small, automatic strike zone combined with facing better and more experienced hitters in tough pitcher’s parks. So he’s done a really nice job adjusting to all of that.

Reggie Crawford makes his first AAA strikeout pic.twitter.com/yOQ2a3pB1w — Sacramento River Cats (@RiverCats) May 19, 2024

As Zaidi indicated, a rotation role remains in play for Crawford in the future but multiple-inning relief stints make the most sense for ramping up his workload this season so soon after completing his rehab from Tommy John surgery. How do you forecast his workload moving forward?

It’s two innings. It might be every two to three days. He’s not going to pitch back-to-back anytime soon. It’s every three or four days for now. But we’ll increase the workload whether it’s fewer days off in between or more pitches per outing.

Zaidi has explained the reasons behind the Giants’ conservative ramp-up process for pitching prospects in the first half. What challenges does that present as you seek to develop pitchers who will eventually be able to compete deep into major-league games?

The pitch count has been on people’s minds, obviously. In April, it’s generally not a good decision to throw massive workloads at your pitchers. The sound approach, just as you’d build for a marathon, you start at one mile and build up to 15. We’re seeing players enter from the amateur ranks and they’re as damaged as I’ve ever seen. There’s not a good progression or buildup. We’re going to go where common sense takes us and I hope the pitchers appreciate that we’re looking out for their careers in the longer term.

Any pitchers this season who are demonstrating an especially promising uptick in stuff?

The one guy who jumps out is Jack Choate in Eugene. He’s a small-school kid (Assumption College), didn’t have a lot of resources, had not faced this kind of competition before. But he had a great year last year and has taken it to another level with his strike throwing without losing strikeout ability. He’s a lefty, good stuff, more low-90s but he’s taking a step forward. Dylan Cumming (an undrafted free agent from Liberty University) has put himself on the radar. He doesn’t have the overpowering fastball but the velo is up a little bit. Really good breaking ball, really good pitchability. He’s popped out as a guy who’s made progress this year and he’ll be tested at Richmond.

Carson Whisenhunt is getting better in Triple A. It’s maybe not raw-stuff development but his consistent strike throwing, learning how to pitch to advanced hitters, has been a positive story. And Joe Whitman ’s fastball is up. He’s touching 97. He was more of a pitchability lefty coming out of the draft but he’s throwing harder and he’s starting to settle in (nine shutout innings, two hits allowed over his last two starts combined for San Jose) and throw more strikes with that velocity.

(Photo of McCray: Chris Coduto / Getty Images)

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Andrew Baggarly is a senior writer for The Athletic and covers the San Francisco Giants. He has covered Major League Baseball for more than two decades, including the Giants since 2004 for the Oakland Tribune, San Jose Mercury News and Comcast SportsNet Bay Area. He is the author of two books that document the most successful era in franchise history: “A Band of Misfits: Tales of the 2010 San Francisco Giants” and “Giant Splash: Bondsian Blasts, World Series Parades and Other Thrilling Moments By the Bay.” Follow Andrew on Twitter @ extrabaggs