equity research report on hdfc bank

• HDFC BANK LTD.
• SECTOR : BANKING AND FINANCE
• INDUSTRY : BANKS

HDFC Bank Ltd.

NSE: HDFCBANK | BSE: 500180

1450.80 12.90 ( 0.90 %)

52W Low on Feb 14, 2024

6.5M NSE+BSE Volume

NSE 13 May, 2024 12:24 PM (IST)

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Broker average target upside potential%

Broker 1Year buys

10 active buys

Broker 1Year sells

0 active sells

Broker 1Year neutral

1 active holds

Broker 1M Reco upgrade

1 Broker 1M Reco upgrade

HDFC Bank Ltd. share price target

Hdfc bank ltd. has an average target of 1870.18. the consensus estimate represents an upside of 28.91% from the last price of 1450.80. view 48 reports from 14 analysts offering long-term price targets for hdfc bank ltd...

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• HDFC Bank Ltd

HDFC Bank Ltd Banks | NSE : HDFCBANK

• Target : 1,970.0 (16.98%)
• Target Period : 12-18 Month

17 Apr 2023

In line q4; investment in infrastructure to drive growth.

HDFC Bank is a leading private sector bank with consistent growth and operational performance over various cycles. The bank has maintained superior return ratios compared to its peers resulting in premium valuations.

• Largest private sector bank with loan book of ₹ 16 lakh crore
• Consistent performance with +4% NIM and +15% RoE in past many years

In line operational performance; lower credit cost aided PAT.

• Healthy loan growth at 16.9% YoY to ₹ 16 lakh crore; deposits up 20.8%
• NII up 23.7% YoY, NIMs steady at 4.1%, C/I up at 42% led by elevated opex
• Credit cost declined to 0.67%, PAT up 19.8% YoY at ₹ 12047 crore
• GNPA & NNPA improved to 1.12% and 0.27% QoQ, respectively

HDFC Bank’s share price has grown by ~2x in the past three years. Focus on building distribution capabilities (branch, human resource and technology) is expected to help withstand competition and drive future business growth though merger with HDFC Ltd to remain in the highlight in the near term.

• We remain positive and retain our BUY rating on the stock

HDFC Bank is expected to deliver higher than industry growth with RoA of ~2% in FY25E. We value HDFC Bank at ~2.9x FY25E ABV & ₹ 50 for subsidiaries and revise target price from ₹ 1920 to ₹ 1970/share.

• Repricing of liabilities to get partially offset by new fixed rate book at higher rates leading to marginal pressure on NIMs in the near term. Structural change in asset mix to keep margins in the stated band of 3.9-4.4%
• Focus on strengthening distribution infrastructure to keep opex elevated, accrual of benefit over medium term to result in reduction of CI ratio
• Focus on liabilities accretion (through branch expansion, customer additions & relationship building with existing customer), steady asset quality and healthy provision buffer to aid growth and RoA

Apart from HDFC Bank, we also like Axis Bank.

• Strong liabilities franchise, adequate capitalisation and healthy provision buffer to aid business growth as well as earnings trajectory
• BUY with a target price of ₹ 1100

Particulars

Shareholding pattern, price chart, recent events & key highlights.

• Total provisions at 176% of reported GNPA level; credit cost at 0.67%

Research Analyst

Kajal Gandhi [email protected]

Pravin Mule

Vishal Narnolia [email protected]

Key Financial Summary

Variance table.

Q4FY23 Earnings Conference Call highlights

• Global market volatility, risks from slowdown and geopolitical tensions may impact growth
• Focus will be on granular deposit base continuing. The bank is on track to keep building distribution capabilities. LCR was ~116% during the quarter
• Retail segment growth of 20% YoY was driven by home and personal loans. Growth in wholesale segment was driven by NBFCs, telecom, PSUs and retail sector. Higher share of retail assets to keep credit cost lower and result in steady RoAs
• Esop expenses during the quarter was | 300 crore. Opex was higher mainly on account of branch addition (~638 branches added in Q4FY23)
• Slippage ratio was at 28 bps (| 4900 crore). Recoveries and upgrades were | 3300 crore (22 bps), write-offs were | 2400 crore (17 bps). No sale of NPA during the quarter. Total restructured book was at 37 bps (Covid restructured book was 31 bps vs. 50 bps in Q3FY23)
• Provisions during the quarter include contingent provision of | 300 crore (PCR at 76%). Outstanding provisions buffer includes | 9700 crore contingent provisions and floating provision of | 1450 crore
• Overall deposit accretion at | 1.5 lakh crore in Q4FY23. Retail deposit growth higher at 23.5% YoY in Q4FY23 with absolute accretion at ~| 1,07,000 crore
• Repricing of liabilities to get partially offset by new fixed rate asset book at higher rates leading to marginal pressure on NIMs in near term. Structural change in asset mix to keep margins in stated band of 3.9-4.4%
• Total 45% book is at fixed rate (that runs for two to three years), MCLR linked loans were 6% of total book with very low volume at shorter end of tenure. Thus, recent reduction in MCLR rates do not seem to have a substantial impact
• The bank added 638 branches during Q4FY23 and 1479 in FY23. The pace of branch expansion will continue in FY24
• Gold loans offered in 4182 branches (3x increase over FY22). Wealth management business offered in 923 branches via hub and spoke model
• With respect to merger, the bank is on track and expects the merger to get completed by June-July 2023

Financial Summary

Profit and loss statement ₹ crore, key ratios ₹ crore, balance sheet ₹ crore, cash flow statement ₹ crore, previous reports pdf:, analyst certification.

I/We, Kajal Gandhi, CA, Vishal Narnolia, MBA and Pravin Mule, MBA, M.com Research Analysts Research Analysts, authors and the names subscribed to this report, hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also certify that no part of our compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s) in this report. It is also confirmed that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not received any compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer, director or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.     

Terms & conditions and other disclosures:

ICICI Securities Limited (ICICI Securities) is a full-service, integrated investment banking and is, inter alia, engaged in the business of stock brokering and distribution of financial products.

ICICI Securities is Sebi registered stock broker, merchant banker, investment adviser, portfolio manager and Research Analyst. ICICI Securities is registered with Insurance Regulatory Development Authority of India Limited (IRDAI) as a composite corporate agent and with PFRDA as a Point of Presence. ICICI Securities Limited Research Analyst SEBI Registration Number – INH000000990. ICICI Securities Limited SEBI Registration is INZ000183631 for stock broker. ICICI Securities is a subsidiary of ICICI Bank which is India’s largest private sector bank and has its various subsidiaries engaged in businesses of housing finance, asset management, life insurance, general insurance, venture capital fund management, etc. (“associates”), the details in respect of which are available on www.icicibank.com.

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Our proprietary trading and investment businesses may make investment decisions that are inconsistent with the recommendations expressed herein.

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The information and opinions in this report have been prepared by ICICI Securities and are subject to change without any notice. The report and information contained herein is strictly confidential and meant solely for the selected recipient and may not be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed, in part or in whole, to any other person or to the media or reproduced in any form, without prior written consent of ICICI Securities. While we would endeavour to update the information herein on a reasonable basis, ICICI Securities is under no obligation to update or keep the information current. Also, there may be regulatory, compliance or other reasons that may prevent ICICI Securities from doing so. Non-rated securities indicate that rating on a particular security has been suspended temporarily and such suspension is in compliance with applicable regulations and/or ICICI Securities policies, in circumstances where ICICI Securities might be acting in an advisory capacity to this company, or in certain other circumstances.

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Stock Movers | Tata Motors, HDFC Bank among top 10 Nifty 50 stocks that swung 3-9% in first 7 sessions of May

Domestic equity benchmarks logged their worst week since mid-march, dropping about 1.8 per cent each and snapping two straight weeks of gains..

India's financial markets have witnessed extreme volatility since the onset of May 2024 - the month that marks the crucial final phases of polling for the high stakes' Lok Sabha elections, followed by the counting of votes and results on June 4, 2024. A lower voter turnout so far in poll phases has raised concerns whether Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies can achieve the landslide victory predicted by opinion polls last month.

Investors had already priced market stability over BJP returning to power, however, the current volatility has raised concerns of uncertainty. This has subsequently led to a significant change in the market's fear gauge index — ‘India VIX’—which gained 386 percentage points during last week to touch 18.47, a 19-month high.

Also Read: FPIs turn aggressive sellers on market crash; offload ₹ 17,083 crore in Indian equities: When will buying resume?

In the week ended May 10, the frontline indices logged their worst since mid-March , dropping about 1.8 per cent each and also snapped two straight weeks of gains. On a weekly basis, the BSE benchmark tanked 1,213.68 points or 1.64 per cent, and the Nifty 50 declined 420.65 points or 1.87 per cent. So far in May, Sensex and Nifty 50 have swung 2.67 per cent and 2.68 per cent respectively.

D-Street movers in 7 sessions of May

In terms of changes in stock prices, Dalal Street's top five best-performing stocks in the first sessions of May include Tata Group's largecaps such as Tata Motors and information technology (IT) giant TCS. However, fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) major HUL has merged as the top Nifty 50 gainer in the first seven market sessions this month. FMCG and auto stocks have witnessed the biggest gains in their respective prices so far in May 2024.

On the other hand, index heavyweights including banking majors ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank and Axis Bank have been among the top Nifty 50 losers so far this moth. The banking index has emerged as the top drag over weak March quarter results and volatility due to the Reserve Bank of India's orders against bank majors.

Nifty 50's top 5 best-performing stocks in 7 sessions of May:

Hero MotoCorp Ltd: The auto giant has emerged as Nifty 50's best-performing stock and clocked gains of 7.36 per cent in its stock price over the last seven sessions, according to Bloomberg data. The two-wheeler manufacturer's net profit rose 18 per cent to ₹ 1,016 crore in the January-March quarter.

Hindustan Unilever Ltd (HUL): The FMCG giant has emerged as Nifty 50's second best-performing stock and clocked gains of 5.92 per cent in its stock price over the last seven sessions. HUL posted a six per cent decline in its standalone net profit to ₹ 2,406 crore in the March quarter of FY24.

Also Read: Nifty FMCG shines on D-Street over upbeat earnings, settles higher despite all-round selloff; HUL, Marico top gainers

Tata Motors Ltd: India's third-largest carmaker by sales has emerged as Nifty 50's third best-performing stock and witnessed a gain of 3.82 per cent in its stock price over the last seven sessions. The auto giant's net profit surged over three folds to ₹ 17,407 crore in the fourth quarter of FY24.

Tata Consultancy Services (TCS): India's biggest IT services provider as emerged as Nifty 50's fourth-best performing stock and clocked a rise of 1.92 per cent in its stock price in the last seven sessions. The IT major registered a net profit of ₹ 12,240 crore in the March quarter and declared a dividend.

Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) Ltd: The auto major has emerged as Nifty 50's fifth best-performing stock clocking a gain of 1.70 per cent in its stock price over the last seven market sessions so far in May, according to Bloomberg data.

Nifty 50's 5 worst-performing stocks in 7 sessions of May:

Larsen & Toubro Ltd (L&T): The infrastructure giant has emerged as Nifty 50's worst-performing stock and witnessed a decline of 8.98 per cent in its stock price over the last seven sessions, according to Bloomberg data. L&T's net profit rose four per cent to ₹ 1,393 crore in the March quarter of FY24.

HDFC Bank Ltd: The country's largest private lender has emerged as Nifty 50's second worst-performing stock and witnessed a decline of 4.12 per cent in its stock price in the last seven sessions. HDFC Bank's net profit in the March quarter stood at ₹ 16,512 crore and was not comparable to the year-ago period.

Also Read: Gold rebounds over Fed rate cut bets: 5 key reasons behind yellow metal's appeal in 2024; Time to buy?

Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL): India's most valuable company has emerged as Nifty 50's third worst-performing stock and witnessed a decline of 4.06 per cent in its stock price in the last seven sessions. RIL's consolidated net profit declined around two per cent to ₹ 18,951 crore in the fourth quarter of FY24.

Axis Bank Ltd: India's fourth-largest lender as emerged as Nifty 50's fourth worst-performing stock and witnessed a decline of 3.93 per cent in its stock price in the last seven sessions, according to the data. The private sector bank reported a net profit of ₹ 7,130 crore in the January-March quarter of FY24.

ICICI Bank Ltd: India's second-largest lender as emerged as Nifty 50's fifth worst-performing stock and witnessed a decline of 2.90 per cent in its stock price in the last seven sessions. The private sector bank's net profit rose 17 per cent to ₹ 10,707 crore in the March quarter of FY24. 

FII outflows to India VIX- key reasons behind the current stock market crash

India VIX index: Over the lingering uncertainty of the election results, volatility has seeped in the market sentiment and is likely to remain the same in the absence of any major positive triggers. The market's fear gauge volatility index gained 386 percentage points during last week to touch 18.47, a 19-month high.

Outperformance of Chinese markets: The recent strong performance of Chinese indices is also a trigger, prompting a shift of foreign inflows from Indian to Chinese markets . Chinese markets are far more cheaper for foreign investors compared to Indian markets. The price to earnings (PE) ratio of India is double that of China's. This has lately triggered massive outflows from Indian equities and debt markets.

Subdued Q4 Results: The ongoing January-March quarter results for FY24 (Q4FY24) season have gone without any surprise, according to market experts. This also failed to trigger extra buying on Dalal Street. "As the market had already discounted the Q4 results 2024 ahead of the quarterly results season, investors are booking profit now as the season is about to end next week," said Saurabh Jain of SMC Global Securities .

Where are markets headed?

D-Street analysts expect the current trend in the domestic markets to continue in the short term due to election-led uncertainties. They added that investors would be watchful of their equity exposure over the next few weeks as any adverse news on the election front could trigger massive sell-off going ahead.  

‘’It is advised to maintain a negative bias until the Nifty convincingly surpasses the 22,400 level. However, there are indications of resilience in certain areas, allowing participants to selectively explore buying opportunities. Looking ahead, the 21,800 level in Nifty is seen as critical, potentially influencing market direction,'' said Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd.

Disclaimer: The views and recommendations provided in this analysis are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not Mint. We strongly advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and individual circumstances may vary.

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HDFC Balanced Advantage Fund

NAV : ₹ 459.751 as of 09 May, 2024

₹ 79,875.08 Cr

20 july 2000.

Launch date

Scheme type

Return Calculator

Over the past

Total Investment of ₹3,00,000

Would have become ₹3,67,425 ( +18.35% ), top holdings, holding(s) distribution, other scheme info, expense ratio.

Inclusive of GST

For units in excess of 15% of the investment, 1% will be charged for redemption within 1 year.

Fund Managers

Anil Bamboli

Apr 2021 - Present

Gopal Agrawal

Jul 2022 - Present

Dhruv Muchhal

Sep 2023 - Present

Nirman S. Morakhia

Feb 2023 - Present

Srinivasan Ramamurthy

Jan 2022 - Present

Arun Agarwal

Feb 2022 - Present

Total AUM: 79875.08Cr

HDFC Mutual Fund, managed by HDFC Asset Management Company Limited, was founded in 1999 through a collaboration between HDFC Limited and abrdn Investment Management Limited. Positioned as one of the largest mutual fund houses in India, it currently manages assets worth Rs. 5.56 lakh crore as of December 2023. The fund house transitioned to a publicly listed entity in August 2018.... View HDFC Balanced Advantage Fund AMC

Still have questions?

What is the nav of hdfc balanced advantage fund.

NAV stands for net asset value, where the performance of a mutual fund is derived by its NAV per unit. NAV per unit is the market value of securities in a scheme, divided by the total number of units in the scheme on a given date.

The Net Asset Value of HDFC Balanced Advantage Fund is ₹459.75

What is the AUM of HDFC Balanced Advantage Fund?

AUM means ‘asset under management,’ which implies the cumulative sum of the market value of total securities held in a mutual fund scheme. MFs invest in Equities, Bonds & other such instruments. If you add the market value of all the investments made by the mutual fund along with any idle cash that it holds, the final tally is called AUM. It tells you how large or small a mutual fund is.

The AUM of HDFC Balanced Advantage Fund is Cr. ₹79,875.08.

What is the minimum SIP amount for HDFC Balanced Advantage Fund?

Every mutual fund scheme has a minimum SIP amount, which one may start with.

The minimum SIP amount of HDFC Balanced Advantage Fund is ₹100

What is the Expense Ratio of HDFC Balanced Advantage Fund?

As per SEBI Regulations, mutual funds are permitted to charge certain operating expenses for managing a mutual fund scheme. The total expense ratio is calculated as a percentage of the scheme’s NAV. It's deducted from the total revenue generated by a mutual fund before disbursing it to the investors.

The Expense Ratio of HDFC Balanced Advantage Fund is ₹1.39

What is the Exit load of HDFC Balanced Advantage Fund?

It’s a fee charged by the mutual fund house if an investor fully or partially exits from an invested scheme within a stated period from the date of investment. The time period for which it applies varies with the type of fund. It's calculated from the date of investment, whether in SIP or lump sum form.

The Exit load of HDFC Balanced Advantage Fund is For units in excess of 15% of the investment, 1% will be charged for redemption within 1 year..

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