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Volcanic Eruptions and Their Repose, Unrest, Precursors, and Timing (2017)

Chapter: 1 introduction, 1 introduction.

Volcanoes are a key part of the Earth system. Most of Earth’s atmosphere, water, and crust were delivered by volcanoes, and volcanoes continue to recycle earth materials. Volcanic eruptions are common. More than a dozen are usually erupting at any time somewhere on Earth, and close to 100 erupt in any year ( Loughlin et al., 2015 ).

Volcano landforms and eruptive behavior are diverse, reflecting the large number and complexity of interacting processes that govern the generation, storage, ascent, and eruption of magmas. Eruptions are influenced by the tectonic setting, the properties of Earth’s crust, and the history of the volcano. Yet, despite the great variability in the ways volcanoes erupt, eruptions are all governed by a common set of physical and chemical processes. Understanding how volcanoes form, how they erupt, and their consequences requires an understanding of the processes that cause rocks to melt and change composition, how magma is stored in the crust and then rises to the surface, and the interaction of magma with its surroundings. Our understanding of how volcanoes work and their consequences is also shared with the millions of people who visit U.S. volcano national parks each year.

Volcanoes have enormous destructive power. Eruptions can change weather patterns, disrupt climate, and cause widespread human suffering and, in the past, mass extinctions. Globally, volcanic eruptions caused about 80,000 deaths during the 20th century ( Sigurdsson et al., 2015 ). Even modest eruptions, such as the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption in Iceland, have multibillion-dollar global impacts through disruption of air traffic. The 2014 steam explosion at Mount Ontake, Japan, killed 57 people without any magma reaching the surface. Many volcanoes in the United States have the potential for much larger eruptions, such as the 1912 eruption of Katmai, Alaska, the largest volcanic eruption of the 20th century ( Hildreth and Fierstein, 2012 ). The 2008 eruption of the unmonitored Kasatochi volcano, Alaska, distributed volcanic gases over most of the continental United States within a week ( Figure 1.1 ).

Finally, volcanoes are important economically. Volcanic heat provides low-carbon geothermal energy. U.S. generation of geothermal energy accounts for nearly one-quarter of the global capacity ( Bertani, 2015 ). In addition, volcanoes act as magmatic and hydrothermal distilleries that create ore deposits, including gold and copper ores.

Moderate to large volcanic eruptions are infrequent yet high-consequence events. The impact of the largest possible eruption, similar to the super-eruptions at Yellowstone, Wyoming; Long Valley, California; or Valles Caldera, New Mexico, would exceed that of any other terrestrial natural event. Volcanoes pose the greatest natural hazard over time scales of several decades and longer, and at longer time scales they have the potential for global catastrophe ( Figure 1.2 ). While

the continental United States has not suffered a fatal eruption since 1980 at Mount St. Helens, the threat has only increased as more people move into volcanic areas.

Volcanic eruptions evolve over very different temporal and spatial scales than most other natural hazards ( Figure 1.3 ). In particular, many eruptions are preceded by signs of unrest that can serve as warnings, and an eruption itself often persists for an extended period of time. For example, the eruption of Kilauea Volcano in Hawaii has continued since 1983. We also know the locations of many volcanoes and, hence, where most eruptions will occur. For these reasons, the impacts of at least some types of volcanic eruptions should be easier to mitigate than other natural hazards.

Anticipating the largest volcanic eruptions is possible. Magma must rise to Earth’s surface and this movement is usually accompanied by precursors—changes in seismic, deformation, and geochemical signals that can be recorded by ground-based and space-borne instruments. However, depending on the monitoring infrastructure, precursors may present themselves over time scales that range from a few hours (e.g., 2002 Reventador, Ecuador, and 2015 Calbuco, Chile) to decades before eruption (e.g., 1994 Rabaul, Papua New Guinea). Moreover, not all signals of volcanic unrest are immediate precursors to surface eruptions (e.g., currently Long Valley, California, and Campi Flegrei, Italy).

Probabilistic forecasts account for this uncertainty using all potential eruption scenarios and all relevant data. An important consideration is that the historical record is short and biased. The instrumented record is even shorter and, for most volcanoes, spans only the last few decades—a miniscule fraction of their lifetime. Knowledge can be extended qualitatively using field studies of volcanic deposits, historical accounts, and proxy data, such as ice and marine sediment cores and speleothem (cave) records. Yet, these too are biased because they commonly do not record small to moderate eruptions.

Understanding volcanic eruptions requires contributions from a wide range of disciplines and approaches. Geologic studies play a critical role in reconstructing the past eruption history of volcanoes,

especially of the largest events, and in regions with no historical or directly observed eruptions. Geochemical and geophysical techniques are used to study volcano processes at scales ranging from crystals to plumes of volcanic ash. Models reveal essential processes that control volcanic eruptions, and guide data collection. Monitoring provides a wealth of information about the life cycle of volcanoes and vital clues about what kind of eruption is likely and when it may occur.

1.1 OVERVIEW OF THIS REPORT

At the request of managers at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), the National Science Foundation, and the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine established a committee to undertake the following tasks:

• Summarize current understanding of how magma is stored, ascends, and erupts.
• Discuss new disciplinary and interdisciplinary research on volcanic processes and precursors that could lead to forecasts of the type, size, and timing of volcanic eruptions.
• Describe new observations or instrument deployment strategies that could improve quantification of volcanic eruption processes and precursors.
• Identify priority research and observations needed to improve understanding of volcanic eruptions and to inform monitoring and early warning efforts.

The roles of the three agencies in advancing volcano science are summarized in Box 1.1 .

The committee held four meetings, including an international workshop, to gather information, deliberate, and prepare its report. The report is not intended to be a comprehensive review, but rather to provide a broad overview of the topics listed above. Chapter 2 addresses the opportunities for better understanding the storage, ascent, and eruption of magmas. Chapter 3 summarizes the challenges and prospects for forecasting eruptions and their consequences. Chapter 4 highlights repercussions of volcanic eruptions on a host of other Earth systems. Although not explicitly called out in the four tasks, the interactions between volcanoes and other Earth systems affect the consequences of eruptions, and offer opportunities to improve forecasting and obtain new insights into volcanic processes. Chapter 5 summarizes opportunities to strengthen

research in volcano science. Chapter 6 provides overarching conclusions. Supporting material appears in appendixes, including a list of volcano databases (see Appendix A ), a list of workshop participants (see Appendix B ), biographical sketches of the committee members (see Appendix C ), and a list of acronyms and abbreviations (see Appendix D ).

Background information on these topics is summarized in the rest of this chapter.

1.2 VOLCANOES IN THE UNITED STATES

The USGS has identified 169 potentially active volcanoes in the United States and its territories (e.g., Marianas), 55 of which pose a high threat or very high threat ( Ewert et al., 2005 ). Of the total, 84 are monitored by at least one seismometer, and only 3 have gas sensors (as of November 2016). 1 Volcanoes are found in the Cascade mountains, Aleutian arc, Hawaii, and the western interior of the continental United States ( Figure 1.4 ). The geographical extent and eruption hazards of these volcanoes are summarized below.

The Cascade volcanoes extend from Lassen Peak in northern California to Mount Meager in British Columbia. The historical record contains only small- to moderate-sized eruptions, but the geologic record reveals much larger eruptions ( Carey et al., 1995 ; Hildreth, 2007 ). Activity tends to be sporadic ( Figure 1.5 ). For example, nine Cascade eruptions occurred in the 1850s, but none occurred between 1915 and 1980, when Mount St. Helens erupted. Consequently, forecasting eruptions in the Cascades is subject to considerable uncertainty. Over the coming decades, there may be multiple eruptions from several volcanoes or no eruptions at all.

The Aleutian arc extends 2,500 km across the North Pacific and comprises more than 130 active and potentially active volcanoes. Although remote, these volcanoes pose a high risk to overflying aircraft that carry more than 30,000 passengers a day, and are monitored by a combination of ground- and space-based sensors. One or two small to moderate explosive eruptions occur in the Aleutians every year, and very large eruptions occur less frequently. For example, the world’s largest eruption of the 20th century occurred approximately 300 miles from Anchorage, in 1912.

In Hawaii, Kilauea has been erupting largely effusively since 1983, but the location and nature of eruptions can vary dramatically, presenting challenges for disaster preparation. The population at risk from large-volume, rapidly moving lava flows on the flanks of the Mauna Loa volcano has grown tremendously in the past few decades ( Dietterich and Cashman, 2014 ), and few island residents are prepared for the even larger magnitude explosive eruptions that are documented in the last 500 years ( Swanson et al., 2014 ).

All western states have potentially active volcanoes, from New Mexico, where lava flows have reached within a few kilometers of the Texas and Oklahoma borders ( Fitton et al., 1991 ), to Montana, which borders the Yellowstone caldera ( Christiansen, 1984 ). These volcanoes range from immense calderas that formed from super-eruptions ( Mastin et al., 2014 ) to small-volume basaltic volcanic fields that erupt lava flows and tephra for a few months to a few decades. Some of these eruptions are monogenic (erupt just once) and pose a special challenge for forecasting. Rates of activity in these distributed volcanic fields are low, with many eruptions during the past few thousand years (e.g., Dunbar, 1999 ; Fenton, 2012 ; Laughlin et al., 1994 ), but none during the past hundred years.

1.3 THE STRUCTURE OF A VOLCANO

Volcanoes often form prominent landforms, with imposing peaks that tower above the surrounding landscape, large depressions (calderas), or volcanic fields with numerous dispersed cinder cones, shield volcanoes, domes, and lava flows. These various landforms reflect the plate tectonic setting, the ways in which those volcanoes erupt, and the number of eruptions. Volcanic landforms change continuously through the interplay between constructive processes such as eruption and intrusion, and modification by tectonics, climate, and erosion. The stratigraphic and structural architecture of volcanoes yields critical information on eruption history and processes that operate within the volcano.

Beneath the volcano lies a magmatic system that in most cases extends through the crust, except during eruption. Depending on the setting, magmas may rise

___________________

1 Personal communication from Charles Mandeville, Program Coordinator, Volcano Hazards Program, U.S. Geological Survey, on November 26, 2016.

directly from the mantle or be staged in one or more storage regions within the crust before erupting. The uppermost part (within 2–3 km of Earth’s surface) often hosts an active hydrothermal system where meteoric groundwater mingles with magmatic volatiles and is heated by deeper magma. Identifying the extent and vigor of hydrothermal activity is important for three reasons: (1) much of the unrest at volcanoes occurs in hydrothermal systems, and understanding the interaction of hydrothermal and magmatic systems is important for forecasting; (2) pressure buildup can cause sudden and potentially deadly phreatic explosions from the hydrothermal system itself (such as on Ontake, Japan, in 2014), which, in turn, can influence the deeper magmatic system; and (3) hydrothermal systems are energy resources and create ore deposits.

Below the hydrothermal system lies a magma reservoir where magma accumulates and evolves prior to eruption. Although traditionally modeled as a fluid-filled cavity, there is growing evidence that magma reservoirs may comprise an interconnected complex of vertical and/or horizontal magma-filled cracks, or a partially molten mush zone, or interleaved lenses of magma and solid material ( Cashman and Giordano, 2014 ). In arc volcanoes, magma chambers are typically located 3–6 km below the surface. The magma chamber is usually connected to the surface via a fluid-filled conduit only during eruptions. In some settings, magma may ascend directly from the mantle without being stored in the crust.

In the broadest sense, long-lived magma reservoirs comprise both eruptible magma (often assumed to contain less than about 50 percent crystals) and an accumulation of crystals that grow along the margins or settle to the bottom of the magma chamber. Physical segregation of dense crystals and metals can cause the floor of the magma chamber to sag, a process balanced by upward migration of more buoyant melt. A long-lived magma chamber can thus become increasingly stratified in composition and density.

The deepest structure beneath volcanoes is less well constrained. Swarms of low-frequency earthquakes at mid- to lower-crustal depths (10–40 km) beneath volcanoes suggest that fluid is periodically transferred into the base of the crust ( Power et al., 2004 ). Tomographic studies reveal that active volcanic systems have deep crustal roots that contain, on average, a small fraction of melt, typically less than 10 percent. The spatial distribution of that melt fraction, particularly how much is concentrated in lenses or in larger magma bodies, is unknown. Erupted samples preserve petrologic and geochemical evidence of deep crystallization, which requires some degree of melt accumulation. Seismic imaging and sparse outcrops suggest that the proportion of unerupted solidified magma relative to the surrounding country rock increases with depth and that the deep roots of volcanoes are much more extensive than their surface expression.

1.4 MONITORING VOLCANOES

Volcano monitoring is critical for hazard forecasts, eruption forecasts, and risk mitigation. However, many volcanoes are not monitored at all, and others are monitored using only a few types of instruments. Some parameters, such as the mass, extent, and trajectory of a volcanic ash cloud, are more effectively measured by satellites. Other parameters, notably low-magnitude earthquakes and volcanic gas emissions that may signal an impending eruption, require ground-based monitoring on or close to the volcanic edifice. This section summarizes existing and emerging technologies for monitoring volcanoes from the ground and from space.

Monitoring Volcanoes on or Near the Ground

Ground-based monitoring provides data on the location and movement of magma. To adequately capture what is happening inside a volcano, it is necessary to obtain a long-term and continuous record, with periods spanning both volcanic quiescence and periods of unrest. High-frequency data sampling and efficient near-real-time relay of information are important, especially when processes within the volcano–magmatic–hydrothermal system are changing rapidly. Many ground-based field campaigns are time intensive and can be hazardous when volcanoes are active. In these situations, telemetry systems permit the safe and continuous collection of data, although the conditions can be harsh and the lifetime of instruments can be limited in these conditions.

Ground-based volcano monitoring falls into four broad categories: seismic, deformation, gas, and thermal monitoring ( Table 1.1 ). Seismic monitoring tools,

TABLE 1.1 Ground-Based Instrumentation for Monitoring Volcanoes

including seismometers and infrasound sensors, are used to detect vibrations caused by breakage of rock and movement of fluids and to assess the evolution of eruptive activity. Ambient seismic noise monitoring can image subsurface reservoirs and document changes in wave speed that may reflect stress. changes. Deformation monitoring tools, including tiltmeters, borehole strainmeters, the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS, which includes the Global Positioning System [GPS]), lidar, radar, and gravimeters, are used to detect the motion of magma and other fluids in the subsurface. Some of these tools, such as GNSS and lidar, are also used to detect erupted products, including ash clouds, pyroclastic density currents, and volcanic bombs. Gas monitoring tools, including a range of sensors ( Table 1.1 ), and direct sampling of gases and fluids are used to detect magma intrusions and changes in magma–hydrothermal interactions. Thermal monitoring tools, such as infrared cameras, are used to detect dome growth and lava breakouts. Continuous video or photographic observations are also commonly used and, despite their simplicity, most directly document volcanic activity. Less commonly used monitoring technologies, such as self-potential, electromagnetic techniques, and lightning detection are used to constrain fluid movement and to detect

ash clouds. In addition, unmanned aerial vehicles (e.g., aircraft and drones) are increasingly being used to collect data. Rapid sample collection and analysis is also becoming more common as a monitoring tool at volcano observatories. A schematic of ground-based monitoring techniques is shown in Figure 1.6 .

Monitoring Volcanoes from Space

Satellite-borne sensors and instruments provide synoptic observations during volcanic eruptions when collecting data from the ground is too hazardous or where volcanoes are too remote for regular observation. Repeat-pass data collected over years or decades provide a powerful means for detecting surface changes on active volcanoes. Improvements in instrument sensitivity, data availability, and the computational capacity required to process large volumes of data have led to a dramatic increase in “satellite volcano science.”

Although no satellite-borne sensor currently in orbit has been specifically designed for volcano monitoring, a number of sensors measure volcano-relevant

TABLE 1.2 Satellite-Borne Sensor Suite for Volcano Monitoring

NOTE: AIRS, Atmospheric Infrared Sounder; ALOS, Advanced Land Observing Satellite; ASTER, Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer; AVHRR, Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer; CALIPSO, Cloud-Aerosol Lidar and Infrared Pathfinder Satellite Observation; COSMO-SkyMed, Constellation of Small Satellites for Mediterranean Basin Observation; GOES, Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite; IASI, Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer; MISR, Multi-angle Imaging SpectroRadiometer; MLS, Microwave Limb Sounder; MODIS, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer; OMI, Ozone Monitoring Instrument; OMPS, Ozone Mapping and Profiler Suite; SAGE, Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment.

parameters, including heat flux, gas and ash emissions, and deformation ( Table 1.2 ). Thermal infrared data are used to detect eruption onset and cessation, calculate lava effusion rates, map lava flows, and estimate ash column heights during explosive eruptions. In some cases, satellites may capture thermal precursors to eruptions, although low-temperature phenomena are challenging to detect. Both high-temporal/low-spatial-resolution (geostationary orbit) and high-spatial/low-temporal-resolution (polar orbit) thermal infrared observations are needed for global volcano monitoring.

Satellite-borne sensors are particularly effective for observing the emission and dispersion of volcanic gas and ash plumes in the atmosphere. Although several volcanic gas species can be detected from space (including SO 2 , BrO, OClO, H 2 S, HCl, and CO; Carn et al., 2016 ), SO 2 is the most readily measured, and it is also responsible for much of the impact of eruptions on climate. Satellite measurements of SO 2 are valuable for detecting eruptions, estimating global volcanic fluxes and recycling of other volatile species, and tracking volcanic clouds that may be hazardous to aviation in near real time. Volcanic ash cloud altitude is most accurately determined by spaceborne lidar, although spatial coverage is limited. Techniques for measuring volcanic CO 2 from space are under development and could lead to earlier detection of preeruptive volcanic degassing.

Interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) enables global-scale background monitoring of volcano deformation ( Figure 1.7 ). InSAR provides much higher spatial resolution than GPS, but lower accuracy and temporal resolution. However, orbit repeat times will diminish as more InSAR missions are launched, such as the European Space Agency’s recently deployed Sentinel-1 satellite and the NASA–Indian Space Research Organisation synthetic aperture radar mission planned for launch in 2020.

1.5 ERUPTION BEHAVIOR

Eruptions range from violently explosive to gently effusive, from short lived (hours to days) to persistent over decades or centuries, from sustained to intermittent, and from steady to unsteady ( Siebert et al., 2015 ). Eruptions may initiate from processes within the magmatic system ( Section 1.3 ) or be triggered by processes and properties external to the volcano, such as precipitation, landslides, and earthquakes. The eruption behavior of a volcano may change over time. No classification scheme captures this full diversity of behaviors (see Bonadonna et al., 2016 ), but some common schemes to describe the style, magnitude, and intensity of eruptions are summarized below.

Eruption Magnitude and Intensity

The size of eruptions is usually described in terms of total erupted mass (or volume), often referred to as magnitude, and mass eruption rate, often referred to as intensity. Pyle (2015) quantified magnitude and eruption intensity as follows:

magnitude = log 10 (mass, in kg) – 7, and

intensity = log 10 (mass eruption rate, in kg/s) + 3.

The Volcano Explosivity Index (VEI) introduced by Newhall and Self (1982) assigns eruptions to a VEI class based primarily on measures of either magnitude (erupted mass or volume) or intensity (mass eruption rate and/or eruption plume height), with more weight given to magnitude. The VEI classes are summarized in Figure 1.8 . The VEI classification is still in use, despite its many limitations, such as its reliance on only a few types of measurements and its poor fit for small to moderate eruptions (see Bonadonna et al., 2016 ).

Smaller VEI events are relatively common, whereas larger VEI events are exponentially less frequent ( Siebert et al., 2015 ). For example, on average about three VEI 3 eruptions occur each year, whereas there is a 5 percent chance of a VEI 5 eruption and a 0.2 percent chance of a VEI 7 (e.g., Crater Lake, Oregon) event in any year.

Eruption Style

The style of an eruption encompasses factors such as eruption duration and steadiness, magnitude, gas flux, fountain or column height, and involvement of magma and/or external source of water (phreatic and phreatomagmatic eruptions). Eruptions are first divided into effusive (lava producing) and explosive (pyroclast producing) styles, although individual eruptions can be simultaneously effusive and weakly explosive, and can pass rapidly and repeatedly between eruption styles. Explosive eruptions are further subdivided into styles that are sustained on time scales of hours to days and styles that are short lived ( Table 1.3 ).

Classification of eruption style is often qualitative and based on historical accounts of characteristic eruptions from type-volcanoes. However, many type-volcanoes exhibit a range of eruption styles over time (e.g., progressing between Strombolian, Vulcanian, and Plinian behavior; see Fee et al., 2010 ), which has given rise to terms such as subplinian or violent Strombolian.

1.6 ERUPTION HAZARDS

Eruption hazards are diverse ( Figure 1.9 ) and may extend more than thousands of kilometers from an active volcano. From the perspective of risk and impact, it is useful to distinguish between near-source and distal hazards. Near-source hazards are far more unpredictable than distal hazards.

Near-source hazards include those that are airborne, such as tephra fallout, volcanic gases, and volcanic projectiles, and those that are transported laterally on or near the ground surface, such as pyroclastic density currents, lava flows, and lahars. Pyroclastic density currents are hot volcanic flows containing mixtures of gas and micron- to meter-sized volcanic particles. They can travel at velocities exceeding 100 km per hour. The heat combined with the high density of material within these flows obliterates objects in their path, making them the most destructive of volcanic hazards. Lava flows also destroy everything in their path, but usually move slowly enough to allow people to get out of the way. Lahars are mixtures of volcanic debris, sediment, and water that can travel many tens of kilometers along valleys and river channels. They may be triggered during an eruption by interaction between volcanic prod-

TABLE 1.3 Characteristics of Different Eruption Styles

ucts and snow, ice, rain, or groundwater. Lahars can be more devastating than the eruption itself. Ballistic blocks are large projectiles that typically fall within 1–5 km from vents.

The largest eruptions create distal hazards. Explosive eruptions produce plumes that are capable of dispersing ash hundreds to thousands of kilometers from the volcano. The thickness of ash deposited depends on the intensity and duration of the eruption and the wind direction. Airborne ash and ash fall are the most severe distal hazards and are likely to affect many more people than near-source hazards. They cause respiratory problems and roof collapse, and also affect transport networks and infrastructure needed to support emergency response. Volcanic ash is a serious risk to air traffic. Several jets fully loaded with passengers have temporarily lost power on all engines after encountering dilute ash clouds (e.g., Guffanti et al., 2010 ). Large lava flows, such as the 1783 Laki eruption in Iceland, emit volcanic gases that create respiratory problems and acidic rain more than 1,000 km from the eruption. Observed impacts of basaltic eruptions in Hawaii and Iceland include regional volcanic haze (“vog”) and acid rain that affect both agriculture and human health (e.g., Thordarson and Self, 2003 ) and fluorine can contaminate grazing land and water supplies (e.g., Cronin et al., 2003 ). Diffuse degassing of CO 2 can lead to deadly concentrations with fatal consequences such as occurred at Mammoth Lakes, California, or cause lakes to erupt, leading to massive CO 2 releases that suffocate people (e.g., Lake Nyos, Cameroon).

Secondary hazards can be more devastating than the initial eruption. Examples include lahars initiated by storms, earthquakes, landslides, and tsunamis from eruptions or flank collapse; volcanic ash remobilized by wind to affect human health and aviation for extended periods of time; and flooding because rain can no longer infiltrate the ground.

1.7 MODELING VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS

Volcanic processes are governed by the laws of mass, momentum, and energy conservation. It is possible to develop models for magmatic and volcanic phenomena based on these laws, given sufficient information on mechanical and thermodynamic properties of the different components and how they interact with each other. Models are being developed for all processes in volcanic systems, including melt transport in the mantle, the evolution of magma bodies within the crust, the ascent of magmas to the surface, and the fate of magma that erupts effusively or explosively.

A central challenge for developing models is that volcanic eruptions are complex multiphase and multicomponent systems that involve interacting processes over a wide range of length and time scales. For example, during storage and ascent, the composition, temperature, and physical properties of magma and host rocks evolve. Bubbles and crystals nucleate and grow in this magma and, in turn, greatly influence the properties of the magmas and lavas. In explosive eruptions, magma fragmentation creates a hot mixture of gas and particles with a wide range of sizes and densities. Magma also interacts with its surroundings: the deformable rocks that surround the magma chamber and conduit, the potentially volatile groundwater and surface water, a changing landscape over which pyroclastic density currents and lava flows travel, and the atmosphere through which eruption columns rise.

Models for volcanic phenomena that involve a small number of processes and that are relatively amenable to direct observation, such as volcanic plumes, are relatively straightforward to develop and test. In contrast, phenomena that occur underground are more difficult to model because there are more interacting processes. In those cases, direct validation is much more challenging and in many cases impossible. Forecasting ash dispersal using plume models is more straightforward and testable than forecasting the onset, duration, and style of eruption using models that seek to explain geophysical and geochemical precursors. In all cases, however, the use of even imperfect models helps improve the understanding of volcanic systems.

Modeling approaches can be divided into three categories:

• Reduced models make simplifying assumptions about dynamics, heat transfer, and geometry to develop first-order explanations for key properties and processes, such as the velocity of lava flows and pyroclastic density currents, the height of eruption columns, the magma chamber size and depth, the dispersal of tephra, and the ascent of magma in conduits. Well-calibrated or tested reduced models offer a straightforward ap-

proach for combining observations and models in real time in an operational setting (e.g., ash dispersal forecasting for aviation safety). Models may not need to be complex if they capture the most important processes, although simplifications require testing against more comprehensive models and observations.

• Multiphase and multiphysics models improve scientific understanding of complex processes by invoking fewer assumptions and idealizations than reduced models ( Figure 1.10 ), but at the expense of increased complexity and computational demands. They also require additional components, such as a model for how magma in magma chambers and conduits deforms when stressed; a model for turbulence in pyroclastic density currents and plumes; terms that describe the thermal and mechanical exchange among gases, crystals, and particles; and a description of ash aggregation in eruption columns. A central challenge for multiphysics models is integrating small-scale processes with large-scale dynamics. Many of the models used in volcano science build on understanding developed in other science and engineering fields and for other ap-

plications. Multiphysics and multiscale models benefit from rapidly expanding computational capabilities.

• Laboratory experiments simulate processes for which the geometry and physical and thermal processes and properties can be scaled ( Mader et al., 2004 ). Such experiments provide insights on fundamental processes, such as crystal dynamics in flowing magmas, entrainment in eruption columns, propagation of dikes, and sedimentation from pyroclastic density currents ( Figure 1.11 ). Experiments have also been used successfully to develop the subsystem models used in numerical simulations, and to validate computer simulations for known inputs and properties.

The great diversity of existing models reflects to a large extent the many interacting processes that operate in volcanic eruptions and the corresponding simplifying assumptions currently required to construct such models. The challenge in developing models is often highlighted in discrepancies between models and observations of natural systems. Nevertheless, eruption models reveal essential processes governing volcanic eruptions, and they provide a basis for interpreting measurements from prehistoric and active eruptions and for closing observational gaps. Mathematical models offer a guide for what observations will be most useful. They may also be used to make quantitative and testable predictions, supporting forecasting and hazard assessment.

Volcanic eruptions are common, with more than 50 volcanic eruptions in the United States alone in the past 31 years. These eruptions can have devastating economic and social consequences, even at great distances from the volcano. Fortunately many eruptions are preceded by unrest that can be detected using ground, airborne, and spaceborne instruments. Data from these instruments, combined with basic understanding of how volcanoes work, form the basis for forecasting eruptions—where, when, how big, how long, and the consequences.

Accurate forecasts of the likelihood and magnitude of an eruption in a specified timeframe are rooted in a scientific understanding of the processes that govern the storage, ascent, and eruption of magma. Yet our understanding of volcanic systems is incomplete and biased by the limited number of volcanoes and eruption styles observed with advanced instrumentation. Volcanic Eruptions and Their Repose, Unrest, Precursors, and Timing identifies key science questions, research and observation priorities, and approaches for building a volcano science community capable of tackling them. This report presents goals for making major advances in volcano science.

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Big volcano science: needs and perspectives

• Perspectives
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• Published: 12 February 2022
• Volume 84 , article number  20 , ( 2022 )

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• Paolo Papale   ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-5207-2124 1 &
• Deepak Garg 1  

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Volcano science has been deeply developing during last decades, from a branch of descriptive natural sciences to a highly multi-disciplinary, technologically advanced, quantitative sector of the geosciences. While the progress has been continuous and substantial, the volcanological community still lacks big scientific endeavors comparable in size and objectives to many that characterize other scientific fields. Examples include large infrastructures such as the LHC in Geneva for sub-atomic particle physics or the Hubble telescope for astrophysics, as well as deeply coordinated, highly funded, decadal projects such as the Human Genome Project for life sciences. Here we argue that a similar big science approach will increasingly concern volcano science, and briefly describe three examples of developments in volcanology requiring such an approach, and that we believe will characterize the current decade (2020–2030): the Krafla Magma Testbed initiative; the development of a Global Volcano Simulator; and the emerging relevance of big data in volcano science.

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Introduction

Volcano science has deeply evolved during last decades. One of us (PP) presented perspectives for next decade developments at the American Geophysical Union (AGU) Fall Meetings 2010 and 2020, which are summarized in Table 1 . As from that easy forecast, approaches based on statistics and probabilities have become progressively more widespread in volcanology: a search in the Web of Science shows that the number of entries responding to “volcano” and “probability” more than doubles from the first to the second decade of this century. Similarly, sharing resources, as well as sharing experience, is continuing to increase in relevance. Examples include the large investments from the European Commission in infrastructural developments such as EPOS, the European Plate Observing System ( www.epos-eu.org ), representing the platform for EU-level data accessibility and sharing in solid Earth, and the frame within which European geoscientists discuss and implement common development strategies; and other EU-level investments, facilitated through EPOS, aimed at transverse, transnational access to resources such as advanced laboratories, observatories, data collections, and computational centers, and of which Eurovolc ( www.eurovolc.eu ) represents a valuable example. Other successful sharing initiatives include the VOBP (Volcano Observatory Best Practices) workshop series aimed at sharing best practices for volcano observatories, and including sharing of resources to sustain the inclusion of observatories from developing countries (Pallister et al. 2019 ).

The talk at AGU 2020 focused on the expected major developments in the current decade 2020–2030. Identifying the many sectors of volcanology that may benefit from significant advance is beyond the scope. The aim there, and here with this short paper, was that of identifying some major elements that may contribute significantly to shape volcanology in the next years. Together with the contributions from many other colleagues in this volume, the objective is to present a picture of what volcano science may look like in 10 years from now. The perspective that we present here largely (but not exclusively) refers to examples from Europe, that we believe can be representative of developments at international scale.

Big science and volcano science

The key word describing major upcoming developments in volcanology is big science. Big science usually refers to large scientific endeavors involving big budgets, big staff, big machines, and big laboratories. Other communities have engaged in big science since long, with enormous impacts such as those brought by the Large Hadron Collider in particle physics, the Hubble telescope in astronomy and astrophysics, or the large-scale initiative represented by the Human Genome Project ( https://www.genome.gov/human-genome-project ) in life sciences. ODP (Oceanic Drilling Program) activities carrying out exploration of the ocean floor are an example of large-scale projects in the Earth sciences, which have also largely benefited volcanology especially when the research involved volcanic ridges and arcs. One may wonder whether volcano science needs similar large-scale, international cooperative efforts. As a matter of fact, we are deeply convinced of the unique importance of science developed by individual or small groups of researchers. Examples of deep scientific innovation following from modest funding are countless, and, fortunately, science still flourishes on great ideas. It is a fact, however, that some extraordinary achievements strictly require similar extraordinary investments. The standard model of quantum mechanics constituting our current vision of the world would not be the same, without extreme technological implementations at a few large particle accelerators. Similarly, we would not have machines on Mars sending back pictures and data and possibly preparing a next human mission, without the huge investments that such an endeavor requires.

What about volcanoes? Of all the extremes that we have reached so far, none is as close to us yet as hidden and mysterious as real magma below volcanoes. We send probes to directly observe, sample, and analyze the surface of Mars at a distance of order 10 8  km, but have never done the same for magma at just 10 0  km below our feet. If curiosity and pure scientific interest are not enough, then it can be noticed that at least 800,000 people in the world live close enough to active volcanoes to directly suffer from a volcanic eruption (UNISDR 2015 ), and anticipating the occurrence of an eruption strictly requires understanding the nature of magma and its underground dynamics. If one would rank relevance on economic value, then it is useful to recall the immense heat associated with volcanic intrusions, of which the proportion converted into energy at geothermal power plants is nothing but a vanishing fraction (e.g., Friðleifsson and Elders 2005 ; Tester et al. 2006 ; Reinsch et al. 2017 ), as well as the potential of underground brines related to magmatic intrusions to be sources of strategic metals (Blundy et al. 2021 ). Summed up with renewable and clean characteristics of geothermal energy may make the search for real magma a highly remunerative effort in the near future.

In the talk at AGU 2020, the focus was on three themes that we expect are going to represent big developments in volcanology: directly reaching underground magma; collecting and processing volcanic data at unprecedented level; and developing a global volcano model. Ultimately, those themes can be reduced to measuring, analyzing, and modeling, making up the fundamental components of scientific investigation. Current and foreseen developments are described mostly with reference to ongoing or next initiatives in the European research landscape, of size and breath such as to likely represent big directions for developments also at the global scale.

Krafla Magma Testbed (KMT)

If one had to fix a date for the initiation of KMT, that would almost certainly be September 2014, when the first dedicated workshop took place within the Krafla caldera. That resulted from John Eichelberger’s vision and determination, as well as from the openness of Landsvirkjun, the Icelandic energy company owning the Krafla geothermal power plant and hosting the workshop. The story began, however, 5 years earlier, when the drill rig at the IDDP-1 well, aiming at supercritical fluids at 4-km depth, got stuck for days at only 2.1 km before it was realized that rhyolitic melt had been unexpectedly hit (Elders et al. 2014 ; Rooyakkers et al. 2021 ). Retrospectively, it was then realized that buried magma had been encountered a few other times at the same depth while drilling at various locations inside the caldera (Eichelberger 2019 ). Seismic imaging (Schuler et al. 2015 ) suggests that the rhyolitic melt may have a minimum volume around 0.5 km 3 . Flow testing at IDDP-1, before the well casing collapsed, produced an amazing 15–40 MW e (Axelsson et al. 2013 ), suggesting that two such wells would be enough to replace the entire Krafla power plant including a few tens conventional geothermal wells.

The serendipitous encounter with magma at Krafla demonstrates that (i) shallow magma bodies can escape even the most sophisticated geophysical prospections, a fact that is alarming for many high risk volcanoes; and (ii) drilling to magma can be safe, as any known accidental case, including those at Puna, Hawaii, and Menengai caldera, Kenya, did not lead to uncontrolled events (Eichelberger 2020 ; Rooyakkers et al. 2021 ).

Today, a large scientific consortium is engaging with country governments and industrial partners to define a long-term program named Krafla Magma Testbed, or KMT ( www.kmt.is ). KMT is foreseen to be the first underground magma observatory in the world, in the form of a series of long-standing wells for scientific and industrial exploration, directly opening inside and around the shallow magmatic body and equipped with advanced monitoring instrumentation (Fig.  1 ). Scientific fields opening to next level investigation include the origin of rhyolitic magmas in basaltic environments (and ultimately, the origin of continents), the thermo-fluid dynamics and petro-chemical evolution of magmas, the heat and mass exchange with the plumbing system, surrounding rocks and geothermal system, the rheology and thermo-mechanical properties from deep volcanic rock layers to magma and across the melt-rock interface, the relationships between surface records and deep magma dynamics and interpretation of volcanic unrests, and many others. Decades of speculation that still dominates the scientific debate would be overcome by direct evidence and measurements, and by real-scale experiments on the natural system. Similarly, innovative experimentation and measurements could lead to next-generation geothermal energy production systems exploiting extremely efficient, very high enthalpy near-magma fluids and heat directly released from the cooling margins of the magma body.

The KMT concept. A series of wells are kept open inside and around the shallow magma intrusion at Krafla (2.1 km depth). Temperature- and corrosion-resistant instrumentation is placed inside the wells down to magma. The surface is heavily instrumented with an advanced multi-parametric monitoring network. Dedicated laboratories, offices, and a visitor center complement the infrastructure. Background picture: courtesy of GEORG (Geothermal Research Cluster of Iceland)

KMT is, obviously, an endeavor that cannot be faced by a restricted group or a single country. It requires instead a large, coordinated effort involving many diverse expertise and capacities from scientific to industrial, and disciplines embracing from thermo-fluid dynamics and material science to geology, geochemistry, and geophysics. The challenges are such as to require coordinated investments of order 10 8 dollars (see www.kmt.is ), not little money but still much less than the costs of other large infrastructures mentioned above. Currently (October 2021), the Icelandic government is welcoming partners and dedicating resources; a KMT/ICDP project has been recently approved; national and international projects raised in support of KMT are saturating the costs for the KMT preparatory phase 0, and phase 1 involving the first scientific well reaching to magma is getting closer.

Global Volcano Simulator (GVS)

The atmospheric scientists have been developing for decades general circulation models and a global simulation approach to atmospheric dynamics that they employ daily to produce weather forecasts. While the physics governing volcanic processes is of comparable complexity (e.g., Sparks 2003 ; Segall 2019 ; Papale 2021 ), a large part of the volcanic system is not directly observed (see the KMT description above). That makes a huge difference in terms of quality and accuracy, as atmospheric model predictions can be updated in real time with data coming from below (ground-based), from inside (weather balloons and rockets, radars) and from above (satellites). Similar capacities in volcano science exist for the atmospheric dispersion of volcanic ashes (e.g., Stohl et al. 2011 ; Tanaka and Iguchi 2019 ; Pardini et al. 2020 ), and for other sufficiently slow surface phenomena, such as lava flows (e.g., Wright et al. 2008 ; Vicari et al. 2011 ; Bonny and Wright 2017 ). For the complex dynamics of volcanic unrest and escalation to eruption or return to quiet conditions, which are of utmost relevance for volcano early warning systems and implementation of emergency plans, we are limited to indirect observations through multi-parametric monitoring networks. Those networks provide a rich basis over which the deep volcano dynamics are inferred and the short-term evolutions are forecasted. Still, such forecasts suffer from the lack of a global reference model for their interpretation, often resulting in discordant inferences and projections by different groups of experts.

A reference Global Volcano Simulator would allow many different observations to be placed within a unique, consistent physical framework and integrated holistic dynamic modeling approach. Such a framework should allow a physical representation of the coupled processes and dynamics in multiple domains from the volcanic plumbing system to the surface, including the surrounding rocks and geothermal circulation systems through which signals of deep dynamics are transported to our monitoring networks. Together with the KMT initiative described above and providing ground-truth constraints as well as a unique chance for validation tests, such a global approach to the underground (and surface) volcano dynamics would project volcanology fully into the third millennium, bringing it closer to other scientific fields for which the quantitative revolution started much in advance. The large destination Earth initiative by the European Commission ( https://digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/policies/destination-earth ) aims at developing a high precision digital model of the Earth to monitor and simulate both natural and man-made phenomena and processes. The initiative provides a long-term perspective which develops largely through the construction of digital twins (Fig.  2 ), that is, digital replicas of natural (physical, biological) or man-made systems. Among the high priority digital twins that are foreseen by the Commission, the one on weather-induced and geophysical extremes ( https://digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/library/workshops-reports-elements-digital-twins-weather-induced-and-geophysical-extremes-and-climate ) is expected to provide the conditions for bringing to a next level some of the recent developments in modeling the complex dynamics of volcanic systems and improving the performance of parallel computing in solid Earth (see also the European Centre of Excellence ChEESE: https://cheese-coe.eu ). As a matter of fact, the digital twin concept applied to volcanoes coincides largely with the GVS described here, showing that the times can be mature for such an ambitious undertaking.

Possible scheme for a digital twin of a volcanic system. Models and data concur to scenarios and forecasts. Models are continuously tested and refined, e.g., by adding more or better microphysics. Both data and models are accompanied by quality assessments and certification. Third parties access data and models, as well as visualization tools. While the scheme is general, the cited resources refer to the European landscape

• Big volcano data

Direct observations and global modeling described above are expected to impact deeply volcano science. The fundamental source of information on volcanic processes and dynamics from most volcanoes worldwide will continue to be the multi-parametric remote and on-site instrumental networks collecting data before, during, and after volcanic eruptions. With the development of the digital age, big data and related technologies such as Machine Learning (ML) and artificial intelligence (AI) have exploded in virtually any aspect of science (e.g., Chen et al. 2012 ; Wamba et al. 2015 ; Gorelick et al. 2017 ). AI algorithms can be trained to reproduce some of our capabilities, such as driving a car or writing a meaningful text. What looks more relevant in volcano science, however, is that ML and AI algorithms can be employed to find, hidden within huge sequences of data, meaningful patterns that trained teams of humans may miss in months or years of work. ML is employed already in a variety of research applications related to volcanoes, including automatic classification of seismicity (Masotti et al. 2006 ; Malfante et al. 2018 ; Bueno et al. 2020 ), analysis of infrasound signals (Witsil and Johnson 2020 ), detection from satellite images of eruptions (Corradino et al. 2020 ) or anomalous deformation areas (Anantrasirichai et al. 2018 , 2019 ), establishment of source regions from tephra analysis (Bolton et al. 2020 ; Pignatelli and Piochi 2021 ), identification of changes in eruption behavior (Hajian et al. 2019 ; Watson 2020 ), and volcano early warning analysis (Parra et al. 2017 ).

The fundamental element of ML and AI is algorithm training, which requires huge amounts of data before the trained algorithms can be used to mine other datasets. Modern multi-parametric networks at highly monitored volcanoes, constellations of satellites, etc. produce continuous streams of space–time data daily. Satellite data are organized and accessible through space agencies, with increasing levels of accessibility being provided through large-scale initiatives, such as GEO’s Geohazard Supersites and Natural Laboratories ( https://geo-gsnl.org/ ). However, a similar level of organization is still missing for ground-based data collected at volcanoes worldwide. Relevant attempts to provide free, organized access to ground-based volcano data are ongoing (e.g., Newhall et al. 2017 ; Costa et al. 2019 ; in Japan: Ueda et al. 2019 ; in Europe: Bailo and Sbarra 2017 ; etc.), while large funding agencies such as the European Union ( https://ec.europa.eu/info/research-and-innovation/strategy/strategy-2020-2024/our-digital-future/open-science_en ; https://ec.europa.eu/info/sites/default/files/turning_fair_into_reality_0.pdf ) increasingly require strict adherence to the principles of open science and FAIR data. Definitely, of all the projections one may make for volcano science in the next decade, the one with the highest likelihood of revealing correct is the burst of big volcano data, or otherwise, volcano science would find itself lagging behind other communities who fully profit of big developments that will largely shape research and support scientific advance in the coming years and decades.

Concluding remarks

The volcanological community has been capable of benefiting from substantial infrastructural developments, for example in relation to satellite missions. Even in such cases, however, volcanologists have taken advantage from missions dedicated to other objectives, such as those related to weather forecasts, climate change, or land evolution. Still, the benefits from a “big science” approach in volcanology appear substantial in terms of mitigated risks and increased security on one side, and potential for efficient, clean, and renewable energy on the other side. In comparison, order of magnitude larger funds dedicated to space exploration, while expanding greatly our fundamental understanding of the Universe, does not seem to bring comparable practical benefits, at least over the short-medium time scale.

Decades of volcano science clearly show that major volcanic eruptions in terms of their size or impacts not only have been big drivers for scientific advance, they also have focused substantial attention by the governments, the media, and the public. However, the momentum gets easily lost, and after an initial promising phase of increased funding opportunities, often volcanoes quickly slip backwards in the priority list. As a volcanological community, we may need to improve our capability to stay on the scene, e.g., by transposing our scientific endeavors into effective narratives which tell of the exciting travel towards unexplored frontiers of our planet Earth, at the same time increasing security and contributing to sustainability and preservation of the delicate equilibria of the planet.

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Acknowledgements

A perspective paper is obviously the result of many years of interactions with colleagues having similar or different, sometimes even diverging, views on what our science misses mostly or mostly benefits from. To all of these colleagues, we are grateful, as literally each of them had much to teach us. We are also grateful to Mike Poland and Steve Sparks who reviewed the manuscript and improved it through many insightful comments and suggestions. One of us (DG) benefited from a grant by EPOS-IT.

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RESEARCH FOCUS: Volcanic eruptions: From ionosphere to the plumbing system

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Chiara Maria Petrone; RESEARCH FOCUS: Volcanic eruptions: From ionosphere to the plumbing system. Geology 2018;; 46 (10): 927–928. doi: https://doi.org/10.1130/focus102018.1

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Volcanic eruptions can have global consequences on the environment, climate and humans. Volcanic plumes, composed of ash and gases, produced during explosive eruptions, can rise many kilometers above the eruptive vent to reach the stratosphere where they can be dispersed globally by the atmospheric circulation. The ash cloud produced by the 1991 Pinatubo eruption in the Philippines, for example, circumnavigated the entire globe in less than a month ( Oppenheimer, 2012 , and references therein).

Large volcanic eruptions inject a substantial amount of sulfur gas and ash particles into the stratosphere ( Fig. 1 ), a large part of which disappear within a few days, but the rest of which are transformed into a mixture of sulfuric acid and water in the form of minute particles. These can stay in the stratosphere for up to one year after the eruption, causing optical effects and scattering solar radiation, which in turn has a cooling effect on the climate ( Robock, 2000 ).

A tropical eruption enhances the pole-to-equator temperature gradient especially in the Northern Hemisphere. When the volcanic aerosol reacts with anthropogenic chlorine, it also creates a chemical effect which contributes to the destruction of stratospheric ozone ( Robock, 2000 ). During the Mount Pinatubo eruption a total of ∼20 million tons of sulfur dioxide were injected in the stratosphere and caused a drop in the air temperature of 0.5 °C during the period 1991–1993 ( Oppenheimer, 2012 ).

Our knowledge of the causal effect between volcanic eruptions and climate cooling ( Robock, 2000 ; Self, 2005 ) has significantly increased since the 1991 eruption of Pinatubo, and we now know that large eruptions in the tropics and at high latitude were responsible for interannual-to-decadal temperature variability in the Northern Hemisphere during the past ∼2,500 years ( Sigl et al., 2015 ), which in turn had a global impact on world history (e.g., Oppenheimer, 2015 ; Sigl et al., 2015 ; Luterbacher and Pfister, 2015 ; Pyle, 2017 ).

The long-range consequences of the 1815 eruption of Mount Tambora (Indonesia), or those of the 1883 eruption of Krakatau (Indonesia), are described in several publications, both scientific and science-related. Tambora’s eruption was responsible for unusually cold and rainy weather, particularly during the summer of 1816, which is known as the “year without summer.” This had devasting consequences, causing crop failures that induced a severe famine in Europe, Asia, the eastern United States and Canada (e.g., Oppenheimer, 2012 ; Oppenheimer, 2015 ; Luterbacher and Pfister, 2015 ; Pyle, 2017 ).

There is also a claim that the defeat of Emperor Napoleon Bonaparte in the battle of Waterloo (18 June 1815) by the British–Prussian Coalition led by the Duke of Wellington can be partly attributed to the eruption of Tambora. The extremely and unusually wet weather made the battlefield a pool of mud, which delayed the start of the battle, allowing the union of Prussian and Anglo-Dutch forces. As Victor Hugo put it in Les Misérables : “Had it not rained on the night of 17 th /18 th June 1815, the future of Europe would have been different…an unseasonably clouded sky sufficed to bring about the collapse of a World” (cit. in Wheeler and Demarée, 2005 ). This is an unproven claim, but it is possible that an obscure (at the time) volcano might have played a large part in the history of Europe and the human race.

In this issue of Geology , Genge (2018 , p. 835) explores the less well-known interaction of large volcanic eruptions with the ionosphere. Few studies ( de Ragone et al., 2004 , and references therein) have explored the disturbance effect that the sudden injection of energy and momentum, during volcanic eruptions, into the atmosphere can cause on the ionosphere. Any sudden powerful blast (such as a volcanic eruption, strong earthquake or even nuclear blast) can potentially trigger an acoustic gravity wave, which propagates with a frequency longer than a normal acoustic wave ( Ripepe et al., 2016 and reference therein), and is capable of perturbing the atmosphere with different effects depending on the altitude ( de Ragone et al., 2004 ). Here, Genge suggests that electric charges from volcanic plumes can cause electrostatic levitation of volcanic ash, injecting volcanic particles <500 nm in diameter into the ionosphere, disturbing the atmosphere global electric circuit on timescales of 100 s.

The immediate consequence of the injection of charged dust into the ionosphere is a sudden disturbance of climate and, in particular, the short-term formation of volcanic clouds with decreasing cloud cover and precipitation in distal areas, contrasting with increased precipitation in the vicinity of the eruptive plume. The global suppression of cloud formation would increase atmospheric H 2 O content favoring enhanced cloud cover and precipitation in the immediate aftermath of a supervolcano eruption when the ionosphere recovers the normal behavior. Genge explores a new, and somewhat controversial, angle offering a counterintuitive suggestion that a sudden effect on climate (temperature drop, immediate cloud and rain suppression in distal areas, shortly followed by enhanced precipitation, and associated with augmented rain precipitation in the vicinity of the eruptive vent) can occur almost immediately during the eruption and for a few weeks after. As Genge argues, this may offer an explanation for the unusually wet weather in Europe only a month after Tambora’s eruption coeval with the last battle of Emperor Bonaparte.

Abundant rain is common during or immediately after a volcanic eruption and is often associated with devasting and deadly lahars—mudflows produced by heavy rain that remobilize the unconsolidated pyroclastic material on the flank of the volcano. Syn-eruptive lahars have been observed at several volcanoes, including Chaiten (Chile) during the 2008 eruption ( Lara, 2009 ) and Pinatubo associated with the 1991 eruption ( Newhall and Solidum, 2015 ). In both cases, the heavy rain was attributed to the precipitation characteristics of the region. However, the suggestion of Genge’s study that a sudden, very short-term effect on climate might be commonly associated with a very large volcanic eruption might be important when evaluating volcanic hazards at supervolcanoes, and it is an avenue that might be worth exploring. In fact, according to Genge (2018) , plume charge and electrostatic levitation also increase with eruption magnitude.

Ultimately, the potential for climate forcing by volcanic eruptions depends on the size of the volcanic plume and thus the volatile content, composition of the magma, and the ejected volume, which in turn modulates eruption magnitude. Assessing the eruption magnitude and type of the next eruption at a given volcano is one of the current challenges of volcanology. This is not an easy task, even at well-known volcanoes. A multidisciplinary effort is necessary, incorporating data from a variety of observations, starting from the essential and fundamental constant real-time monitoring of a single volcano to the equally essential and fundamental forensic approach, that permits a glimpse into the possible future scenarios of activity by learning from the past eruptive history of the volcano.

The petrology community (i.e., scientists that study formation of the rocks) has achieved a remarkable understanding of the complex plumbing system that fuels a volcano. We now know that beneath a volcano, there is no such a thing as a large pond of magma, but a complex plumbing system where crystals and melt are stored in different pockets and at different levels in a semi-solid state, called crystal mush, with low melt fraction, and that can be remobilized at different but usually short timescales (e.g., Bachmann and Bergantz, 2008 ; Cooper and Kent, 2014 ; Cashman et al., 2017 ). By studying the minerals forming the rocks erupted from a volcano, we are able to understand how and on which sort of timescales the crystal mush is remobilized and magma accumulated before eruption (e.g., Costa et al., 2008 ; Druitt et al., 2012 ; Kilgour et al., 2014 ; Cooper, 2017 ; Petrone et al., 2018 ), which is an important piece of information to evaluate volcanic hazards assessment. We have made substantial progress in our understanding of magmatic processes leading to different types and size of eruptions, but there is still a lot of work to do.

Data & Figures

A moderate Vulcanian eruption at Sakurajima Volcano (Japan) on 22 July 2013.

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Articles on Volcanic eruptions

Displaying 1 - 20 of 70 articles.

Earth’s early evolution: fresh insights from rocks formed 3.5 billion years ago

Jaganmoy Jodder , University of the Witwatersrand

A botanical Pompeii: we found spectacular Australian plant fossils from 30 million years ago

Andrew Rozefelds , CQUniversity Australia

Volcanic eruption lights up Iceland after weeks of earthquake warnings − a geologist explains what’s happening

Jaime Toro , West Virginia University

Glaciers can give us clues about when a volcano might erupt

Matteo Spagnolo , University of Aberdeen ; Brice Rea , University of Aberdeen , and Iestyn Barr , Manchester Metropolitan University

Living near the fire – 500 million people worldwide have active volcanoes as neighbors

David Kitchen , University of Richmond

Volcano eruptions are notoriously hard to forecast. A new method using lasers could be the key

Teresa Ubide , The University of Queensland ; Alice MacDonald , The University of Queensland , and Jack Mulder , University of Adelaide

Supercomputers have revealed the giant ‘pillars of heat’ funnelling diamonds upwards from deep within Earth

Ömer F. Bodur , University of Wollongong and Nicolas Flament , University of Wollongong

What causes volcanoes to erupt?

Rachel Beane , Bowdoin College

Mauna Loa eruption in Hawaii: How to stay safe while visiting volcanoes

Ali Asgary , York University, Canada

Where Mauna Loa’s lava is coming from – and why Hawaii’s volcanoes are different from most

Gabi Laske , University of California, San Diego

We can use drones to get inside and learn more about active, gassy volcanoes

Fiona D'Arcy , McGill University

How a volcanic bombardment in ancient Australia led to the world’s greatest climate catastrophe

Timothy Chapman , University of New England ; Ian Metcalfe , University of New England , and Luke Milan , University of New England

5 ways climate change increases the threat of tsunamis, from collapsing ice shelves to sea level rise

Jane Cunneen , Curtin University

Why the Tonga volcano cued tsunami warnings for the North American Pacific coast

Cindy Mora-Stock , Western University

Underwater volcanoes: how ocean colour changes can signal an imminent eruption

Matthew Blackett , Coventry University

The Tonga volcanic eruption has revealed the vulnerabilities in our global telecommunication system

Dale Dominey-Howes , University of Sydney

Why the volcanic eruption in Tonga was so violent, and what to expect next

Shane Cronin , University of Auckland, Waipapa Taumata Rau

Why can’t we throw all our trash into a volcano and burn it up?

Emily Johnson , US Geological Survey

Mount Semeru’s deadly eruption was triggered by rain and storms, making it much harder to predict

Heather Handley , Monash University

When Greenland was green: rapid global warming 55 million years ago shows us what the future may hold

Milo Barham , Curtin University ; Jussi Hovikoski , Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland , and Michael B.W. Fyhn , Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland

Related Topics

• Natural disasters
• New Zealand stories
• Volcanology

Essays on Volcano

Volcanoes have long been a topic of fascination and study for scientists, geologists, and the general public. Their explosive power and ability to shape the landscape make them a captivating subject for research and exploration. With their potential for destruction and their role in the formation of the Earth's crust, there are countless essay topics to consider when delving into the world of volcanoes.

The Importance of the Topic

Studying volcanoes is important for a number of reasons. From a scientific standpoint, understanding the inner workings of these natural phenomena can help us predict and prepare for eruptions, potentially saving lives and property. Volcanoes also play a crucial role in the Earth's geological processes, contributing to the formation of new land and the recycling of the planet's crust. Furthermore, the study of volcanoes can shed light on the history of the Earth and its evolution over time. By exploring various essay topics related to volcanoes, students and researchers can gain a deeper understanding of the natural world and its complexities.

Advice on Choosing a Topic

When selecting a topic for an essay on volcanoes, there are numerous avenues to explore. One option is to focus on the scientific aspects of volcanoes, such as the different types of eruptions, the formation of volcanic landforms, or the role of volcanoes in the Earth's tectonic processes. Another approach could involve examining the historical and cultural significance of volcanoes, including their impact on ancient civilizations and their portrayal in art and literature. Additionally, one could explore the environmental and societal effects of volcanic eruptions, such as the aftermath of major events like Mount St. Helens or Pompeii. By choosing a specific aspect of volcanoes to investigate, writers can delve into a rich and diverse field of study.

The study of volcanoes offers a wealth of essay topics to explore. Whether focusing on the scientific, historical, cultural, or societal aspects of these natural wonders, there is no shortage of material to consider. By delving into the world of volcanoes, students and researchers can gain a deeper appreciation for the Earth's geological processes and the impact of these powerful forces of nature. With the potential to offer valuable insights and lessons for the future, volcanoes continue to be a topic of enduring fascination and importance.

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149 engaging geology topics for students to write about.

As a branch of Earth science, there are already a lot of geology research paper topics. However, there are more geological research topics that are yet unexplored.

Geology is that part of science that encompasses the physical structure of the earth. It is concerned with the liquid and solid structure of the earth. It also examines the solid properties of the terrestrial planet and natural satellites like the Moon and Mars.

Before you do that, how do you structure your work?

How to Structure Geology Research Essay

To get the best grades, you need an impeccable structure alongside great academic work. Even if you’re treating controversial geology paper topics, you need to abide by a structure. This structure lets you creatively express yourself. All professionals use these too:

Introduction and Thesis Statement. The introduction lets your readers know the fundamentals of the research. The thesis and introduction must be persuasive as it encompasses the key points which your research will be about. Research Methodology. This includes the methods applied during the research. You can’t write an academic paper or essay without support from books, journals, or professionals in the field. You need to document the means through which you’ve got your work to prove academic integrity. Literature Review. This is where you review different papers, journals, and other existing relevant materials. All these show that you know about the geology topic you want to write about as well as the gap your work seeks to cover. Body. The body of your research paper or essay is where your argument and findings are shared. Here, you must create engaging, even persuasive, arguments with your unique diction. Every point you want to make is unraveled here. Conclusion. In this section, you’ll summarize the results of your findings. You’ll also present your final words and impress your readers with what you’ve researched. Notes and References. As you already know that you can’t write a paper out of the blue, the notes and references page is where you document all the sources used for your research. This must be in concert with the referencing style of your school or faculty. Abstract. This is the final section of your writings although it will appear on the first page. This is because you need to have completed research and writing before writing your abstract. The 100 to 300 words content is a brief overview of everything you researched. It is a simple overview of everything your research is about, including your conclusions.

Geology Topics to Write About

These are geology research topics for your research in the field. You can go through these creative and unique topics to create your informative and comprehensive essays or research papers. Choose any of these custom topics for any class:

• Consider the reasons why robust plate tectonics are important to the earth
• Examine the evolution of the continents of the world and the geopolitics involved in the contemporary idea
• Examine the percentage of the unknown metals on the earth from present Literature on the topic
• Express how crude oil extraction is done from land and water
• Examine the effect of crude oil and any other mineral resources extraction from the places where they’re extracted
• Give an account of the different types of rocks and their Significance
• Examine how mountains are formed and how they disintegrate
• Give an account of the theories about earthquakes and the scientific understanding of earthquakes
• Examine the physical and chemical properties of any mineral resource of your choice
• Account for the start of metal detection mechanisms on the planet and where the technology is today
• Account for wildlife preservation in any state (within and outside America) of your choice
• Examine the plutonic bodies
• Give an account of the most disastrous volcanoes in the history of Europe
• Examine the decomposition of the Earth
• Examine the methods physical geologists apply in interpreting Geology’s history
• Examine the various Geology theories
• Discuss the means through which algae blooms Influence marine life ecology
• Examine the consequences of natural disasters inland structures
• What are the existing limitations to hydroelectricity?
• Account for how urban living has transformed geology and urban geography
• Account for the consequences of long term use of nuclear power
• Examine the ways through which greenhouse gases affect geology
• What do you know about invasive species in the Great Lake region of North Africa and what is their role?
• Examine the connection between tsunamis and earthquakes drawing from four relevant examples of each in history
• Evaluate the lessons geologists picked from the Haitian earthquake of 2010
• Discuss how terrorist activities affect geology
• Explain how women help in maintaining the ecology
• Who are the actors and predators on geology and how do they affect geology?
• What is the role of toxic substances being disposed of in seas and oceans?
• Examine the events of overgrazing in Western Africa and their effects
• Why is overgrazing a complex issue in Nigeria?
• What do you understand about climatic illiteracy and how has it affected the world?
• What do you know about ethical and legal complications in the study of geology?
• What do you understand about industrialization and how does it affect the study of Geology?
• What is your understanding of habitat fragmentation and its significance on land formation?

Geology Questions

You may need geology questions to prepare for your exams. They are questions your teachers or professors may ask:

• Examine the process for a rock formation
• Examine the process of mineral formation with relevant examples
• What do you know about the solid properties on Earth?
• What do you understand by lava and give an account of its physical structure?
• Give an account of how the earth was formed
• What do you understand about global warming and how it affects the planet?
• What do you understand but the depletion of natural resources and does it imply that the earth will no longer be home to anyone?
• What do you know about human decomposition?
• Account for any earthquake of your choice as well as the origin of earthquakes
• Examine the causes of motion and how the boundaries of the earth surface shifts
• What do you know about coal mining and its consequences?
• What do you know about the effect of oil spillage on oceans?
• Discuss the environmental disaster that leads to the accumulation of oil and gas in a place
• What are the conventional challenges faced by geologists?
• Give an account of the risk assessment process by petroleum geologists
• Examine how fossil fuels contribute to the degradation of the environment
• What is the role of geophysics in the understanding of the world?
• What do you know about the Clean Air Act and what has changed since then?
• Discuss the effect of tsunamis on the soil structure
• What do you understand about biodiversity?

Interesting Topics in Geology

These are some of the most interesting geology topics:

• What is the importance of physical geology in understanding societal issues?
• What is the law of faunal succession and its implications on the environment?
• Discuss the role of dating techniques in physical geology and its research
• Examine the reasons why mountains are dormant while some other mountains experience volcanic activities
• Examine how the earth structure accounts for the geological compositions found
• What is the connection between earthquakes and the formation of lakes
• How does desertification cause harm to the environment?
• What do you know about the Continental Drift Theory and how it is applied in geology?
• Do you think geologists are crucial in creating global policies?
• Do you think the process of soil weathering is significant in the study of geology?
• What do you think is the relationship between geology and archaeology?
• Examine the process of the formation of solar systems
• What do you know as heating, differentiation, and accumulation of the earth?
• Examine the structure of the earth as a result of seismic waves
• Evaluate how geologists determine the age of the earth
• Discuss the radiometric techniques employed in dating rocks
• Consider the evolution, functions, and challenges faced by mine inspectorates
• What are the differences in the growth of geological processes?
• What do you know about solid wastes and their effect on quality water
• Examine the Hydrology and Watershed processes
• Analyze the significance of remote sensing and geographic information systems
• Discuss the shortcomings of Alfred Wegener’s Theory and compare it to any other theory
• What do you know about the seafloor magnetic patterns and their formation?
• Discuss the geological compositions of mantle plumes and the Hawaiian islands
• How does the shock wave data affect the study of planetary Science?
• What is the essence of the sun in the middle of the solar system?
• Evaluate the significance of the moon on earth
• What do you know about terrestrial planets and dwarf planets?
• Give an account of the evolution of volcanoes and how it contributes to the solar system

Geology Topics for Research Paper

You may also need these custom topics for your research:

• How are lunar craters on planet Mercury formed?
• Give a historical view of marine geology
• Examine the causes and solutions to coastal erosions
• Give a detailed study of any indigenous rock you know and its formation
• Give an overview of ocean water transformation and its effects
• Give a detailed study of the formation of natural gas
• What do you understand about solar energy as the future of energy?
• What are the alternatives you believe are the best for petroleum?
• What do you understand about the California Gold Rush and what are its impacts?
• What are the technologies required for effective sedimentology studies?
• What do you know about plate tectonic theory and how is it applied?
• Examine the influence of weathering on the soil
• Drawing from three controversial historical examples, what are the causes of volcanic eruptions?
• Express your understanding, as a geologist, on the solar systems
• What do you think about the rock cycle?
• What are your views about natural rivers?
• What does the Pacific ring of fire mean and what is its importance?
• Examine the formation of the metamorphic rock
• What are the agents of metamorphism and how do they influence the process?
• Examine the formation of solar systems
• What do you know about radiometric and relative dating and where are they applied
• Give a detailed study of magnetic polar wandering and its relevance to the planet
• Account for the evolution of magmas
• Account for the cause of coastal erosions
• What are the effects of landslides?
• Eclair the properties of petroleum fields and gas fields
• Account for the origin of gas
• Account for the origin of petroleum
• Account for the natural processes shaping the formation of land
• What do you understand by earth rotation using five existing literature
• Examine the techniques used for soil liquefaction processes
• Examine the various developments in the geotechnical excavation
• Discuss the role of kinetic energy on the metamorphosis of rock
• What do you comprehend as the effect of global warming on polar regions?
• Discuss the role of spacing calculator software in engineering technology

Earth Science Research Paper Topics

This is a branch that evaluates branches such as metrology and geology. If you need to have an in depth knowledge of geological topics, you can choose any of these:

• Evaluate the role of meteorology and weather prediction in stabilizing the atmosphere
• How does acid rain affect human development?
• What do you know about animals in the Amazon rainforest and the possible biodiversity?
• Examine the environmental policies of two countries of your choice
• How do political decisions affect global environmental policies?
• How does climate change affect land formation and structures?
• Give an overview of food chains and how a biologist’s organism study may be different from a Geologist’s
• What do you know about invasive plants and their contribution to land formation?
• Compare and contrast the biome concept with the ones available in zoogeographic regions
• Examine the floral features in the desert, boreal forest, mid-latitude grassland, and tundra.
• What are the differences in soil developments in forest areas, grassland flat areas, and slope areas?
• Examine the struggle between external and internal factors shaping the earth surface
• What do you know about earth changes?
• What are the factors that lead to soil formations?
• What do you understand about the plate tectonics theory and how earthquakes patterns are related?
• What do you understand by the plate tectonics theory and how volcano patterns are related?
• Evaluate the reasons why some scientists claim that the Pleistocene era is over and the present state is the interglacial stage
• What do you understand about the Pleistocene controversy and why is it still existent?
• What is the impact of public opinions on environmental national policies?
• How do public policies by states affect environmental health across borders?
• Identify the concept of the greenhouse effect
• Give a detailed study, from two events, on the consequences of forest fires
• Consider five forest fires and account for their causes
• Trace the origin and pattern of groundwater movement
• What do you understand as the method hydrological processes undergo?
• Account for the misconceptions about ozone holes and how they have been addressed
• Examine how volcanoes affect Earth’s atmosphere
• Give a detailed study of the role of plants in human breathing
• Account for the discovery of gas and the process of production
• Study the evolution of asteroids and account for their features

Are You Trying To Write A Geology Paper?

With these geology topics for a paper, you can choose a topic your teachers or professors in school will like. This should even be a topic that will earn you one of the best grades in college or university.

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Through our professional writers, you can get a cheap rate for top quality and unique papers at a fast pace. That is, within a short time, you can get results on an advanced and comprehensive study of your choice.

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Sat / act prep online guides and tips, 113 great research paper topics.

General Education

One of the hardest parts of writing a research paper can be just finding a good topic to write about. Fortunately we've done the hard work for you and have compiled a list of 113 interesting research paper topics. They've been organized into ten categories and cover a wide range of subjects so you can easily find the best topic for you.

In addition to the list of good research topics, we've included advice on what makes a good research paper topic and how you can use your topic to start writing a great paper.

What Makes a Good Research Paper Topic?

Not all research paper topics are created equal, and you want to make sure you choose a great topic before you start writing. Below are the three most important factors to consider to make sure you choose the best research paper topics.

#1: It's Something You're Interested In

A paper is always easier to write if you're interested in the topic, and you'll be more motivated to do in-depth research and write a paper that really covers the entire subject. Even if a certain research paper topic is getting a lot of buzz right now or other people seem interested in writing about it, don't feel tempted to make it your topic unless you genuinely have some sort of interest in it as well.

#2: There's Enough Information to Write a Paper

Even if you come up with the absolute best research paper topic and you're so excited to write about it, you won't be able to produce a good paper if there isn't enough research about the topic. This can happen for very specific or specialized topics, as well as topics that are too new to have enough research done on them at the moment. Easy research paper topics will always be topics with enough information to write a full-length paper.

Trying to write a research paper on a topic that doesn't have much research on it is incredibly hard, so before you decide on a topic, do a bit of preliminary searching and make sure you'll have all the information you need to write your paper.

#3: It Fits Your Teacher's Guidelines

Don't get so carried away looking at lists of research paper topics that you forget any requirements or restrictions your teacher may have put on research topic ideas. If you're writing a research paper on a health-related topic, deciding to write about the impact of rap on the music scene probably won't be allowed, but there may be some sort of leeway. For example, if you're really interested in current events but your teacher wants you to write a research paper on a history topic, you may be able to choose a topic that fits both categories, like exploring the relationship between the US and North Korea. No matter what, always get your research paper topic approved by your teacher first before you begin writing.

113 Good Research Paper Topics

Below are 113 good research topics to help you get you started on your paper. We've organized them into ten categories to make it easier to find the type of research paper topics you're looking for.

Arts/Culture

• Discuss the main differences in art from the Italian Renaissance and the Northern Renaissance .
• Analyze the impact a famous artist had on the world.
• How is sexism portrayed in different types of media (music, film, video games, etc.)? Has the amount/type of sexism changed over the years?
• How has the music of slaves brought over from Africa shaped modern American music?
• How has rap music evolved in the past decade?
• How has the portrayal of minorities in the media changed?

Current Events

• What have been the impacts of China's one child policy?
• How have the goals of feminists changed over the decades?
• How has the Trump presidency changed international relations?
• Analyze the history of the relationship between the United States and North Korea.
• What factors contributed to the current decline in the rate of unemployment?
• What have been the impacts of states which have increased their minimum wage?
• How do US immigration laws compare to immigration laws of other countries?
• How have the US's immigration laws changed in the past few years/decades?
• How has the Black Lives Matter movement affected discussions and view about racism in the US?
• What impact has the Affordable Care Act had on healthcare in the US?
• What factors contributed to the UK deciding to leave the EU (Brexit)?
• What factors contributed to China becoming an economic power?
• Discuss the history of Bitcoin or other cryptocurrencies  (some of which tokenize the S&P 500 Index on the blockchain) .
• Do students in schools that eliminate grades do better in college and their careers?
• Do students from wealthier backgrounds score higher on standardized tests?
• Do students who receive free meals at school get higher grades compared to when they weren't receiving a free meal?
• Do students who attend charter schools score higher on standardized tests than students in public schools?
• Do students learn better in same-sex classrooms?
• How does giving each student access to an iPad or laptop affect their studies?
• What are the benefits and drawbacks of the Montessori Method ?
• Do children who attend preschool do better in school later on?
• What was the impact of the No Child Left Behind act?
• How does the US education system compare to education systems in other countries?
• What impact does mandatory physical education classes have on students' health?
• Which methods are most effective at reducing bullying in schools?
• Do homeschoolers who attend college do as well as students who attended traditional schools?
• Does offering tenure increase or decrease quality of teaching?
• How does college debt affect future life choices of students?
• Should graduate students be able to form unions?

• What are different ways to lower gun-related deaths in the US?
• How and why have divorce rates changed over time?
• Is affirmative action still necessary in education and/or the workplace?
• Should physician-assisted suicide be legal?
• How has stem cell research impacted the medical field?
• How can human trafficking be reduced in the United States/world?
• Should people be able to donate organs in exchange for money?
• Which types of juvenile punishment have proven most effective at preventing future crimes?
• Has the increase in US airport security made passengers safer?
• Analyze the immigration policies of certain countries and how they are similar and different from one another.
• Several states have legalized recreational marijuana. What positive and negative impacts have they experienced as a result?
• Do tariffs increase the number of domestic jobs?
• Which prison reforms have proven most effective?
• Should governments be able to censor certain information on the internet?
• Which methods/programs have been most effective at reducing teen pregnancy?
• What are the benefits and drawbacks of the Keto diet?
• How effective are different exercise regimes for losing weight and maintaining weight loss?
• How do the healthcare plans of various countries differ from each other?
• What are the most effective ways to treat depression ?
• What are the pros and cons of genetically modified foods?
• Which methods are most effective for improving memory?
• What can be done to lower healthcare costs in the US?
• What factors contributed to the current opioid crisis?
• Analyze the history and impact of the HIV/AIDS epidemic .
• Are low-carbohydrate or low-fat diets more effective for weight loss?
• How much exercise should the average adult be getting each week?
• Which methods are most effective to get parents to vaccinate their children?
• What are the pros and cons of clean needle programs?
• How does stress affect the body?
• Discuss the history of the conflict between Israel and the Palestinians.
• What were the causes and effects of the Salem Witch Trials?
• Who was responsible for the Iran-Contra situation?
• How has New Orleans and the government's response to natural disasters changed since Hurricane Katrina?
• What events led to the fall of the Roman Empire?
• What were the impacts of British rule in India ?
• Was the atomic bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki necessary?
• What were the successes and failures of the women's suffrage movement in the United States?
• What were the causes of the Civil War?
• How did Abraham Lincoln's assassination impact the country and reconstruction after the Civil War?
• Which factors contributed to the colonies winning the American Revolution?
• What caused Hitler's rise to power?
• Discuss how a specific invention impacted history.
• What led to Cleopatra's fall as ruler of Egypt?
• How has Japan changed and evolved over the centuries?
• What were the causes of the Rwandan genocide ?

• Why did Martin Luther decide to split with the Catholic Church?
• Analyze the history and impact of a well-known cult (Jonestown, Manson family, etc.)
• How did the sexual abuse scandal impact how people view the Catholic Church?
• How has the Catholic church's power changed over the past decades/centuries?
• What are the causes behind the rise in atheism/ agnosticism in the United States?
• What were the influences in Siddhartha's life resulted in him becoming the Buddha?
• How has media portrayal of Islam/Muslims changed since September 11th?

Science/Environment

• How has the earth's climate changed in the past few decades?
• How has the use and elimination of DDT affected bird populations in the US?
• Analyze how the number and severity of natural disasters have increased in the past few decades.
• Analyze deforestation rates in a certain area or globally over a period of time.
• How have past oil spills changed regulations and cleanup methods?
• How has the Flint water crisis changed water regulation safety?
• What are the pros and cons of fracking?
• What impact has the Paris Climate Agreement had so far?
• What have NASA's biggest successes and failures been?
• How can we improve access to clean water around the world?
• Does ecotourism actually have a positive impact on the environment?
• Should the US rely on nuclear energy more?
• What can be done to save amphibian species currently at risk of extinction?
• What impact has climate change had on coral reefs?
• How are black holes created?
• Are teens who spend more time on social media more likely to suffer anxiety and/or depression?
• How will the loss of net neutrality affect internet users?
• Analyze the history and progress of self-driving vehicles.
• How has the use of drones changed surveillance and warfare methods?
• Has social media made people more or less connected?
• What progress has currently been made with artificial intelligence ?
• Do smartphones increase or decrease workplace productivity?
• What are the most effective ways to use technology in the classroom?
• How is Google search affecting our intelligence?
• When is the best age for a child to begin owning a smartphone?
• Has frequent texting reduced teen literacy rates?

How to Write a Great Research Paper

Even great research paper topics won't give you a great research paper if you don't hone your topic before and during the writing process. Follow these three tips to turn good research paper topics into great papers.

#1: Figure Out Your Thesis Early

Before you start writing a single word of your paper, you first need to know what your thesis will be. Your thesis is a statement that explains what you intend to prove/show in your paper. Every sentence in your research paper will relate back to your thesis, so you don't want to start writing without it!

As some examples, if you're writing a research paper on if students learn better in same-sex classrooms, your thesis might be "Research has shown that elementary-age students in same-sex classrooms score higher on standardized tests and report feeling more comfortable in the classroom."

If you're writing a paper on the causes of the Civil War, your thesis might be "While the dispute between the North and South over slavery is the most well-known cause of the Civil War, other key causes include differences in the economies of the North and South, states' rights, and territorial expansion."

#2: Back Every Statement Up With Research

Remember, this is a research paper you're writing, so you'll need to use lots of research to make your points. Every statement you give must be backed up with research, properly cited the way your teacher requested. You're allowed to include opinions of your own, but they must also be supported by the research you give.

#3: Do Your Research Before You Begin Writing

You don't want to start writing your research paper and then learn that there isn't enough research to back up the points you're making, or, even worse, that the research contradicts the points you're trying to make!

Get most of your research on your good research topics done before you begin writing. Then use the research you've collected to create a rough outline of what your paper will cover and the key points you're going to make. This will help keep your paper clear and organized, and it'll ensure you have enough research to produce a strong paper.

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Christine graduated from Michigan State University with degrees in Environmental Biology and Geography and received her Master's from Duke University. In high school she scored in the 99th percentile on the SAT and was named a National Merit Finalist. She has taught English and biology in several countries.

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• Essay on Disaster

Volcanoes Research Paper

Type of paper: Research Paper

Topic: Disaster , Environment , Environmental Issues , Nuclear Weapon , World , Volcano , Earth , Atmosphere

Published: 05/17/2021

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Volcanoes often vary in terms of shape and structure. Some volcanoes can be small, cone-shaped, or some can be characterized as simply cracks in the earth’s crust where lava and other volcanic materials erupt; some volcanoes can be large and shaped like domes, shields; and lastly, there are volcanoes that are shaped like a mountain with a matching crater or a system of craters on its summit. There are numerous mechanisms how volcanoes are formed: the most common type of volcanism (mechanism how volcanoes are formed) is hot spot volcanism.

Most volcanoes are formed when an unusual magma activity forms in the lower mantle. Because magmas are basically hot molten rock beneath the earth’s surface, they are bound to expand. As they expand, they push up into the upper mantle. As the deposition of more magma from the lower mantle continues, a hot spot of magma gets created . The process continues for thousands or even millions of years until a volcano visible on the earth’s surface get created. The volcanoes that can be found in Hawaii can be perfect examples of volcanoes formed via this type of mechanism .

When volcanoes erupt, they release materials such as volcanic gases, lava, and volcanic ash. The destructive power of the earth’s volcanoes greatly varies. There are some volcanoes that are dormant; some are more active. There are active volcanoes that explode more violently than the others just like how there are active volcanoes whose explosions can be hardly felt or unseen. The factor that makes all the difference in the earth’s volcanoes’ explosive and destructive power is the composition of the magma inside it. When volcanoes erupt, the volcanic materials inside it basically get catapulted out into the atmosphere.

The next question now would be what materials are there inside a volcano? The answer is it differs. When volcanoes erupt, they emit volcanic gases. Volcanic gases are mainly composed of water vapor, carbon dioxide, and sulfur dioxide. Some volcanic eruptions may also include other gases like hydrogen chloride, hydrogen sulfide, and hydrogen fluoride. Volcanic ash or highly pulverized volcanic rocks may also be released. This may be seen as a cloud of black smoke surrounding the volcano. The size of the cloud often depends on the explosiveness of the eruption.

The worst possible aftermath of a volcanic eruption is a phenomenon called a volcanic winter. A volcanic winter is an event wherein the climate and temperature regulation cycle in the earth gets extremely disrupted as a result of a major or catastrophic volcanic eruption. This is often caused by the deposition of huge volumes of volcanic ash in the atmosphere that occludes the sun making the average temperature on the lower part of the atmosphere drop.

The heat that often radiates up from the lower atmosphere also gets absorbed by the ash cloud which makes the average temperature on the upper part of the atmosphere higher . The overall result is a volcanic winter. Some of the theorized results of a volcanic winter are famine , the death of livestock animals, and even mass extinction. Average volcanic eruptions do not produce such violent effects or aftermaths. On average, volcanoes should only emit ash deposits on the atmosphere that would only affect a small to medium area around the vicinity of the explosion. The new deposits of lava as a result of the explosion may also cover existing structures near the foot of the volcano.

Works Cited

Foulger, G. "Are "hot spots" hot spots Abstract." Journal of Geodynamics (2012): 1-28. Rafferty, J. "Volcanic Winter." Britannica Encyclopaedia (2014): http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/1559899/volcanic-winter. SDSU. "Intraplate Volcanism." SDSU (n.d.): http://www.geology.sdsu.edu/how_volcanoes_work/intraplvolc_page.html. Zhang, D., R. Blender and K. Fraedrich. "Volcanoes and ENSO in millennium simulations: global impacts and regional reconstructions in East Asia Abstract." Theoretical and Applied Climatology (2013): 437.

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AI generates high-quality images 30 times faster in a single step

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In our current age of artificial intelligence, computers can generate their own “art” by way of diffusion models , iteratively adding structure to a noisy initial state until a clear image or video emerges. Diffusion models have suddenly grabbed a seat at everyone’s table: Enter a few words and experience instantaneous, dopamine-spiking dreamscapes at the intersection of reality and fantasy. Behind the scenes, it involves a complex, time-intensive process requiring numerous iterations for the algorithm to perfect the image.

MIT Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory (CSAIL) researchers have introduced a new framework that simplifies the multi-step process of traditional diffusion models into a single step, addressing previous limitations. This is done through a type of teacher-student model: teaching a new computer model to mimic the behavior of more complicated, original models that generate images. The approach, known as distribution matching distillation (DMD), retains the quality of the generated images and allows for much faster generation. 

“Our work is a novel method that accelerates current diffusion models such as Stable Diffusion and DALLE-3 by 30 times,” says Tianwei Yin, an MIT PhD student in electrical engineering and computer science, CSAIL affiliate, and the lead researcher on the DMD framework. “This advancement not only significantly reduces computational time but also retains, if not surpasses, the quality of the generated visual content. Theoretically, the approach marries the principles of generative adversarial networks (GANs) with those of diffusion models, achieving visual content generation in a single step — a stark contrast to the hundred steps of iterative refinement required by current diffusion models. It could potentially be a new generative modeling method that excels in speed and quality.”

This single-step diffusion model could enhance design tools, enabling quicker content creation and potentially supporting advancements in drug discovery and 3D modeling, where promptness and efficacy are key.

Distribution dreams

DMD cleverly has two components. First, it uses a regression loss, which anchors the mapping to ensure a coarse organization of the space of images to make training more stable. Next, it uses a distribution matching loss, which ensures that the probability to generate a given image with the student model corresponds to its real-world occurrence frequency. To do this, it leverages two diffusion models that act as guides, helping the system understand the difference between real and generated images and making training the speedy one-step generator possible.

The system achieves faster generation by training a new network to minimize the distribution divergence between its generated images and those from the training dataset used by traditional diffusion models. “Our key insight is to approximate gradients that guide the improvement of the new model using two diffusion models,” says Yin. “In this way, we distill the knowledge of the original, more complex model into the simpler, faster one, while bypassing the notorious instability and mode collapse issues in GANs.” 

Yin and colleagues used pre-trained networks for the new student model, simplifying the process. By copying and fine-tuning parameters from the original models, the team achieved fast training convergence of the new model, which is capable of producing high-quality images with the same architectural foundation. “This enables combining with other system optimizations based on the original architecture to further accelerate the creation process,” adds Yin. 

When put to the test against the usual methods, using a wide range of benchmarks, DMD showed consistent performance. On the popular benchmark of generating images based on specific classes on ImageNet, DMD is the first one-step diffusion technique that churns out pictures pretty much on par with those from the original, more complex models, rocking a super-close Fréchet inception distance (FID) score of just 0.3, which is impressive, since FID is all about judging the quality and diversity of generated images. Furthermore, DMD excels in industrial-scale text-to-image generation and achieves state-of-the-art one-step generation performance. There's still a slight quality gap when tackling trickier text-to-image applications, suggesting there's a bit of room for improvement down the line. 

Additionally, the performance of the DMD-generated images is intrinsically linked to the capabilities of the teacher model used during the distillation process. In the current form, which uses Stable Diffusion v1.5 as the teacher model, the student inherits limitations such as rendering detailed depictions of text and small faces, suggesting that DMD-generated images could be further enhanced by more advanced teacher models. 

“Decreasing the number of iterations has been the Holy Grail in diffusion models since their inception,” says Fredo Durand, MIT professor of electrical engineering and computer science, CSAIL principal investigator, and a lead author on the paper. “We are very excited to finally enable single-step image generation, which will dramatically reduce compute costs and accelerate the process.” 

“Finally, a paper that successfully combines the versatility and high visual quality of diffusion models with the real-time performance of GANs,” says Alexei Efros, a professor of electrical engineering and computer science at the University of California at Berkeley who was not involved in this study. “I expect this work to open up fantastic possibilities for high-quality real-time visual editing.” 

Yin and Durand’s fellow authors are MIT electrical engineering and computer science professor and CSAIL principal investigator William T. Freeman, as well as Adobe research scientists Michaël Gharbi SM '15, PhD '18; Richard Zhang; Eli Shechtman; and Taesung Park. Their work was supported, in part, by U.S. National Science Foundation grants (including one for the Institute for Artificial Intelligence and Fundamental Interactions), the Singapore Defense Science and Technology Agency, and by funding from Gwangju Institute of Science and Technology and Amazon. Their work will be presented at the Conference on Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition in June.

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Researchers create reliable prediction method for oxygen reduction catalysts

by Tohoku University

Tohoku University researchers have created a reliable means of predicting the performance of a new and promising type of catalyst. Their breakthrough will speed up the development of efficient catalysts for both alkaline and acidic environments, thereby saving time and effort in future endeavors to create better fuel cells.

Details of their research were published in the journal Chemical Science on March 15, 2024.

Fuel cell technology has long been heralded as a promising avenue for clean energy, but challenges in catalyst efficiency have hindered its widespread adoption.

Molecular metal–nitrogen–carbon (M–N–C) catalysts boast distinctive structural properties and excellent electrocatalytic performance, particularly for the oxygen reduction reaction (ORR) in fuel cells. They offer a cost-effective alternative to platinum based catalysts.

One such variant of M–N–C catalysts are metal-doped azaphthalocyanine (AzPc). These possess unique structural properties, characterized by long-stretching functional groups. When these catalysts are placed on a carbon substrate, they take on three-dimensional shapes, much like a dancer placed onto a stage. This shape change influences how well they work for ORR at different pH levels.

Still, translating these beneficial structural properties into increased performances is a challenge, one that requires significant modeling, validation, and experimentation, which is resource intensive.

"To overcome this, we used computer simulations to study how the performance of carbon-supported Fe–AzPcs catalyst for oxygen reduction reactions changes with different pH levels, by looking at how electric fields interact with the pH and the surrounding functional group," says Hao Li, associate professorat Tohoku University's Advanced Institute for Materials Research (WPI-AIMR) and corresponding author of the paper.

In analyzing Fe–AzPcs performance in ORR, Li and his colleagues incorporated large molecular structures with complex long-chain arrangements, or "dancing patterns," with arrangements of more than 650 atoms.

Crucially, the experimental data revealed that the pH-field coupled microkinetic modeling closely matched the observed ORR efficiency.

"Our findings suggest that evaluating the charge transfer occurring at the Fe-site, where the Fe atom usually loses approximately 1.3 electrons, could serve as a useful method for identifying suitable surrounding functional groups for ORR," adds Li. "We have essentially created a direct benchmark analysis for the microkinetic model to identify effective M–N–C catalysts for ORR across various pH conditions."

Journal information: Chemical Science

Provided by Tohoku University

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