essay on political situation in pakistan

The Political Situation in Pakistan

Cultural development in pakistan, stereotypes and prejudice in pakistan.

The region today referred to as Pakistan was much of its history part of Persian dynasties including what is today referred to as India. Today, Pakistan is an independent country in South Asia to the west of India. But what led to the split and the rise of Pakistan to what it is today? The events that led to the breakaway of Pakistan from greater India were as a result of some misunderstanding between the Muslim and the Hindu population in India. This essay seeks to briefly address the events that led to the split of Pakistan from India and the culture and practices they developed. It will also entail, in brief, the political situation, stereotypes and the prejudices experienced in Pakistan.

The region today referred to as Pakistan was much of its history part of Persian dynasties including what is today referred to as India. Today, Pakistan is an independent country in South Asia to the west of India. But what led to the split and the rise of Pakistan to what it is today? The history of Pakistan can be traced back to as early as the year 1857. In this year, present day India and Pakistan were one nation under British rule. The colony was known as British India. 1857 saw the rise of the Indian rebellion opposing British rule. It was clear that the Indians had had enough of the British rule and wanted to be free. There was however one problem; the Muslim population in India felt that their interests were not being addressed in the same manner that the Indian interests were (Basham, 1954).

As a result, the All Indian Muslim League was formed in 1906. It gained massive popularity in the 1930’s amid fears of neglect and under-representation of Muslims in politics. Muhammad Iqbal saw the need to call for an independent state in northwestern India for the Indian Muslims. After serious debates and confrontations over the issue, the Indians gave in and heeded to the demands of the Muslim population. In 1947, Pakistan gained her independence from British-India as a Muslim majority state. Quite a number of the Muslim population moved to Pakistan while the Indian population moved to India. It was expected that grievances over valuable pieces of land would arise leading to conflicts. This is being experienced to date. Kashmir and Jammu were the most disputed for states and this even led to the Kashmir war of 1948 which ended with Pakistan acquiring only a third of the state and the rest left to India (Aziz, 1969).

The political situation in Pakistan over the years has left a lot to be desired. A mixture of civilian and military rule has been experienced in Pakistan. Occasioned by civil wars, protests and authoritarian rule, the citizens of Pakistan have experienced over five decades of political instability. A ray of hope was however seen in the recent past when the former president Pervez Musharraf stepped down and a civilian president, Asif Ali Zardari, was elected. Pakistan also brought a massive revolution in political thought in 1988, after they elected the first female prime minister of the nation Benazir Bhutto. She was later assassinated in 2007 (Aziz, 1969).

Since 1947, the Pakistani has developed a culture, which has become accustomed as their own. The Pakistani mainly developed the Islamic culture and maintained the practices practiced by Muslims in other areas of the world. What led to this development is the fact that the Pakistani wanted to be identified with other Islamic nations and they wanted a state free from the Hindu practices. An example is the establishment of the Sharia laws, which is a common practice in many Islamic nations. They are governed by the Islamic laws and practices and have to adhere to them.

The cultural heritage of Pakistan developed over a period of time. The fact however is that they moved from the Hindu traditions and cultures to the Islamic traditions and way of life (Ahmad, 1964).

The picture painted of the Pakistani by the media and the rest of the world people is one that creates a lot of acrimony and sorrow among the people of Pakistan. Contrary to the world belief that people from Pakistan are radical Islamists who engage in acts of terror to pass across a message, the Pakistani Muslim are very religious people who advocate for the sanctity of life. The picture painted is that of all non-Muslim individuals being killed by the Pakistani.

Another stereotype that many people have across the world is that of Pakistan being an all-Muslim nation. Islam is not the only religion practiced in Pakistan. A wide majority of the citizens are Muslim but other religions are also accepted in Pakistan.

The last stereotype experienced by the Pakistani is that they are and harbor terrorists in Pakistan. What criterion is used to determine whether one is a terrorist or not? The one predominant in the world today is that of being a Muslim. Pakistan does not advocate for terrorism. People from Pakistan are against any form of terror and as mentioned earlier belief in the sanctity of life (Aziz, 1969).

The prejudice experienced in Pakistan is that against the Hindus. Since the acquisition of independence from British India, Hindus who remained in Pakistan have faced a lot of prejudice and discrimination. In the cultural and the legal sense, Hindus are discriminated against. They are referred ‘un pure’ by the Pakistani people. The other form prejudice is in the legal system where the infamous blasphemy law where people practicing the Hindu traditions and religion are sentenced to death.

All in all, Pakistan is a diverse country with diverse cultures and traditions. It is important that citizens from the country appreciate each other and work hand in hand with each other.

Aziz.A, (1969). An intellectual history of Islam in India . Chicago: Oxford university press.

Ahmad A, (1964). Islamic modernizations in Pakistan and India. New York: Oxford University press.

Basham. A. L, (1954). The wonder that was India . New York: Grove press.

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Pakistan and its Politics Essay

Introduction, reason for move towards islamic state, impact of islamic state on democracy, works cited.

Pakistan was established as a state in 1947 after a separation from the Indian British Empire. From its beginning, the country has had a turbulent life with political instability and ethnic disputes characterizing its existence. While Pakistan was established as a secular state with a Muslim majority, the country has exhibited over the decades showed signs of evolving into an Islamic State. Such an outcome would have dire consequences for democratization.

The prevailing economic conditions have increased the popularity of Islamic movements all over the country. Farhat notes that most Pakistanis blame bad government policies for the high unemployment, inflation, and lack of access to education and healthcare in the country (121).

Islamists express skepticism over the ability of the secular leadership, which is blamed for Pakistan’s problems. Saudi influence has also been a contributing factor to the evolution of Pakistan into an Islamic state.

Due to the lack of financial opportunities in Pakistan, Saudi Arabia has been a major destination for Pakistanis working abroad since the 1970s. When the Pakistani workers return home from this Islamic state, they are influenced by the religious teachings of Saudi clerics (Farhat 122).

Western dominance has also accelerated the move towards Islamic reform in Pakistan. After the events of 9/11, the cooperation between the Pakistani government and the United States has increased with Pakistan becoming a key strategic ally. Radical Islamists see this as a corruption of Islam by the West.

Farhat points out that this challenge of the West has become the single most important factor promoting the renewal of Islamic movements in Pakistan today (129). Western dominance has fueled nationalistic sentiments and many people are in support of an Islamic renewal.

Evolution to an Islamic State will hurt democracy in Pakistan. Politicians have been known to employ religious criteria to justify their actions in Islamic states. This will be to the disadvantage of Pakistanis of other religions and Islamic sub-sects.

Ishtiaq observes that While Pakistan has a Muslim majority with 96% of Pakistanis being Muslims, the Muslim community is not monolithic and it contains different sub-sects (195). An Islamic state would therefore threaten democracy since it would give rise to sectarianism in Pakistani territories.

By adopting an Islamic character, Pakistan has enacted many laws that are discriminatory to non-Muslims. For example, the third constitution of 1973 required the president and the prime minister to be Muslims (Ishtiaq 198). Such laws are not in line with the democratic principles that give each person equal opportunity in the state.

The Islamic state will ensure that only practicing Muslims can take up key leadership positions in the country. An Islamic state will also hurt democracy since the ruling elite may resort to Islamic rhetoric to undermine the opposition. Farhat demonstrates that Islamic symbolism may be used to legitimize leadership that would otherwise be voted out in a true democracy (127).

Pakistan is a country with a rich Islamic history spanning centuries and the country was created with these religious and cultural bearings in mind. However, Pakistan was created as a Muslim state and not an Islamic State. The trends articulated in this paper are moving Pakistan towards becoming an Islamic State. If this happens, the democratic values currently enjoyed by the country will suffer as Islamic laws becomes adapted all over the land.

Farhat, Haq. “A state for the Muslims or an Islamic state?” Religion and Politics in South Asia . Ed. Ali Riaz. NY. Routledge, 2010. 119-145. Print.

Ishtiaq, Ahmed. “The Pakistan Islamic State Project: A secular Critique.” Religion and Politics in South Asia . Ed. Ali Riaz. NY. Routledge, 2010. 185-211. Print.

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United States Institute of Peace

Home ▶ Publications

The Current Situation in Pakistan

A USIP Fact Sheet

Monday, January 23, 2023

Publication Type: Fact Sheet

Pakistan continues to face multiple sources of internal and external conflict. Extremism and intolerance of diversity and dissent have grown, fuelled by a narrow vision of Pakistan’s national identity, and are threatening the country’s prospects for social cohesion and stability.   

The inability of state institutions to reliably provide peaceful ways to resolve grievances has encouraged groups to seek violence as an alternative. The country saw peaceful political transitions after the 2013 and 2018 elections. However, as the country prepares for anticipated elections in 2023, it continues to face a fragile economy along with deepening domestic polarization. Meanwhile, devastating flooding across Pakistan in 2022 has caused billions in damage, strained the country’s agriculture and health sectors, and also laid bare Pakistan’s vulnerability to climate disasters and troubling weaknesses in governance and economic stability.

Regionally, Pakistan faces a resurgence of extremist groups along its border with Afghanistan, which has raised tensions with Taliban-led Afghanistan. Despite a declared ceasefire on the Line of Control in Kashmir in 2021, relations with India remain stagnant and vulnerable to crises that pose a threat to regional and international security. The presence and influence of China, as a great power and close ally of Pakistan, has both the potential to ameliorate and exacerbate various internal and external conflicts in the region.

USIP’S Work

The U.S. Institute of Peace has conducted research and analysis and promoted dialogue in Pakistan since the 1990s, with a presence in the country since 2013. The Institute works to help reverse Pakistan’s growing intolerance of diversity and to increase social cohesion. USIP supports local organizations that develop innovative ways to build peace and promote narratives of inclusion using media, arts, technology, dialogues and education.

USIP works with state institutions in their efforts to be more responsive to citizens’ needs, which can reduce the use of violence to resolve grievances. The Institute supports work to improve police-community relations, promote greater access to justice and strengthen inclusive democratic institutions and governance. USIP also conducts and supports research in Pakistan to better understand drivers of peace and conflict and informs international policies and programs that promote peace and tolerance within Pakistan, between Pakistan and its neighbors, and between Pakistan and the United States.

USIP’s Work in Pakistan Includes:

Improving police-community relations for effective law enforcement

The Pakistani police have struggled with a poor relationship with the public, characterized by mistrust and mistreatment, which has hindered effective policing. USIP has partnered with national and provincial police departments to aid in building police-community relationships and strengthening policing in Pakistan through training, capacity building and social media engagement.

Building sustainable mechanisms for dialogue, critical thinking and peace education.

Nearly two-thirds of Pakistan’s population is under the age of 30. Youth with access to higher education carry disproportionate influence in society. However, Pakistan’s siloed education system does not allow interactions across diverse groups or campuses, leading to intolerance, and in some cases, radicalization. To tackle growing intolerance of diversity on university campuses, USIP has partnered with civil society and state institutions to support programs that establish sustainable mechanisms for dialogue, critical thinking and peace education.

Helping Pakistanis rebuild traditions of tolerance to counter extremists’ demands for violence

USIP supports local cultural leaders, civil society organizations, artists and others in reviving local traditions and discourses that encourage acceptance of diversity, promote dialogue and address social change. USIP also supports media production — including theater, documentaries and collections of short stories — which offer counter narratives to extremism and religious fundamentalism.

Support for acceptance and inclusion of religious minorities

Relations between religious communities in Pakistan have deteriorated, with some instances of intercommunal violence or other forms of exclusion. USIP supports the efforts of local peacebuilders, including religious scholars and leaders, to promote interfaith harmony, peaceful coexistence and equitable inclusion of minorities (gender, ethnic and religious) in all spheres of public life.

Supporting inclusive and democratic institutions

To help democratic institutions be more responsive to citizens, USIP supports technical assistance to state institutions and efforts to empower local governments, along with helping relevant civil society actors advocate for greater inclusion of marginalized groups. Gender has been a major theme of this effort and across USIP’s programming in Pakistan. These programs empower women in peacebuilding and democratic processes through research, advocacy and capacity building.

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Peace Processes

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Pakistan’s political crisis, briefly explained

An end to Pakistan’s constitutional crisis. But a political crisis endures.

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Editor’s note, April 10: Sunday, Imran Khan received a vote of no confidence from the Pakistani parliament, losing his position as prime minister. A vote on a new prime minister is expected as soon as Monday.

One of Pakistan’s twin crises was resolved this week. The other one, not so much.

On Thursday, the country’s supreme court delivered a historic ruling that resolved a constitutional crisis that took shape last week. The court rebuked Prime Minister Imran Khan, a self-fashioned populist leader and former cricket star who is more celebrity than statesman. Khan, the court ruled, had acted unconstitutionally when he dissolved Pakistan’s Parliament last week in order to avoid losing power through a no-confidence vote.

It was a surprising and reassuring decision, experts in the country’s politics said, given the supreme court’s checkered record as a sometime political ally of Khan. On Thursday, the court sided with the rule of law.

But the underlying political crisis that led to the court’s landmark order endures.

Khan outlandishly blamed the opposition parties’ efforts to oust him on a US-driven foreign conspiracy. Now, the Parliament has been restored and will continue with its no-confidence vote against Khan’s premiership Saturday, likely leading to his ouster and extraordinary elections later this year. Khan, for his part, said that he would “ fight ” back.

The broader political crisis, however, can be traced to the 2018 election that brought Khan to power. Traditionally, the military is the most significant institution in Pakistan, and it has often intervened to overthrow elected leaders that got in its way. Khan’s rise is inextricable from military influence over politics , and the incumbent prime minister accused the military of a soft coup for manipulating the election in Khan’s favor.

It was a “very controversial election,” says Asfandyar Mir, a researcher at the United States Institute of Peace. “There was a major question over the legitimacy of that electoral exercise and the government that Khan formed could just never escape the shadow of the controversy surrounding that election,” Mir explained.

More recently, the relationship between the military and Khan has worsened, and that gave the political opposition an opening to act against him. Though it’s not known what role the military played in the supreme court’s ruling, experts note that the harshness of the court’s order suggests the military’s buy-in. “This is part of a larger history of instability in Pakistan in which prime ministers are ousted from power, because they lose the support of Pakistan’s military,” Madiha Afzal, foreign policy fellow at the Brookings Institution, told Vox.

But “even if the court was influenced by the military, it took the right decision,” she says.

Khan’s position weakened domestically

The political and economic situation set the stage for a challenge to Khan.

After running on a campaign that promised less corruption and more economic opportunity for the poor, Khan has failed to deliver. Inflation is climbing , unemployment is soaring , and a billion-dollar program from the International Monetary Fund has not helped stabilize matters. An international investigation into offshore money from last year, known as the Pandora Papers , showed that Khan’s inner circle had moved money abroad to avoid taxes, in contradiction with Khan’s populist rhetoric.

Khan presided over an anti-corruption witch hunt targeting opposition parties. Indeed, the opposition parties, many of them composed of dynastic leadership and families with old money, are corrupt , and their attempt to oust Khan can be seen as a move to evade further scrutiny, Mir said.

Still, that anti-corruption effort brought the government bureaucracy to a halt. And it’s part of Khan’s broader strongman-style approach to governing that has been ineffective .

Since his start in politics, Khan has depended on the courts. Yasser Kureshi, a researcher in constitutional law at the University of Oxford, says Khan has built his political standing on backing the judiciary. “Imran Khan’s political platform has been built around an anti-corruption populism, where he charges the political class for being corrupt, and in the last 15 years the supreme court has been on a spree of jurisprudence targeting the political corruption of Pakistan's traditional parties,” he explains. “Khan has been the biggest supporter of this jurisprudence as it has validated and legitimized his politics.”

Now, the court appears to have turned against him at a time when the military has also lost faith in Khan. “With Imran Khan, I think that the problem for him is that right now, he has no institutional solutions that he can really turn to,” says Kureshi.

Khan’s relationship with the US has also cooled

Pakistan is a nuclear-armed country with a population of 220 million; it has built the sixth-largest military in the world, and has clout as a leader in the Islamic world. A longtime participant in the US war on terrorism, Pakistan has also been a conflicted partner, criticized for at times abetting the Taliban .

Khan was elected in 2018, and Mir says that, two years in, the military’s relationship to him began to cool. Khan feuded with the army chief over foreign policy issues, and the military saw Khan’s poor governance as a liability. Last year, Khan’s delays in signing off on a new intelligence chief prompted speculation of more divides between the two.

President Joe Biden did not phone Khan in his initial days in office, though he did call the leader of India , Pakistan’s chief rival. “The Biden administration’s cold shoulder to Imran Khan rubbed him the wrong way,” said Afzal. “Pakistan has just fallen off a little bit of the radar in terms of high-level engagement.”

Khan’s public messaging as a strongman has partially been responsible for agitating the relationship with the US — and by extension, his relationship with the Pakistani military, which wants to be closer to the US.

Most recently, that chill was expressed by Khan’s decision to stay neutral in Russia’s war on Ukraine; Khan visited Moscow just in advance of Russia’s invasion.

And, now, he’s turned to accusations of conspiracy: that the opposition’s stand against him is manufactured by the US. The origins of Khan’s incendiary claims appear to be a diplomatic cable that Pakistan’s ambassador to Washington sent home last month after a meeting with senior State Department official Donald Lu. Whatever criticisms Lu may have conveyed about Pakistan’s foreign policy, Khan’s interpretation of the memo has clearly been blown out of proportion. “When it comes to those allegations, there is no truth to them,” State Department spokesperson Ned Price said last week.

It’s an open question whether his argument will resonate among a Pakistani populace who is suspicious of the United States. One group it’s likely not resonating with: Pakistan’s powerful military.

Khan is “critical of the United States to a point that makes the military uncomfortable,” said Shamila Chaudhary, an expert at the New America think tank. “The way he’s talking about the United States is preventing the US relationship with Pakistan from being repaired, and it needs to be repaired.”

Meanwhile, the Biden administration’s focus in Asia has been on great-power competition with China and two national security crises (the Afghanistan withdrawal and Russia’s Ukraine invasion). The sloppy withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan furthered the disconnect between Washington and Islamabad, according to Chaudhary, and further upset Pakistan’s government.

Robin Raphel, a former ambassador who served as a senior South Asia official in the State Department from 1993 to 1997, described Biden’s outlook to Pakistan as a “non-approach approach.”

“I’m a diplomat, and, I believe you get more with honey than vinegar,” she said. “It would have been more than worth it for the president to take five minutes to call Imran Khan.”

The US did send its top State Department official for human rights, Uzra Zeya, to the Organization of Islamic Countries summit in Pakistan last month. Zeya also met with the country’s foreign minister and senior officials, as the two countries celebrated the 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations.

But there hasn’t been more than that in terms of a positive message for the US-Pakistan relationship in light of the recent political and constitutional crises in the country. Price’s recent comments on the situation were brief: “We support Pakistan’s constitutional process and the rule of law.”

What happens next

Once the Parliament completes its no-confidence vote, which may happen as soon as today, it will dissolve the government. The country’s electoral commission will then oversee a caretaker government that will likely be headed by the leader of the opposition, Shehbaz Sharif . (Sharif is the brother of Nawaz Sharif , a former prime minister himself, who is currently living in exile in the UK as he faces accusations of corruption.) And, in that forthcoming vote, Khan will most probably lose .

But even the specifics of those elections are contentious. Khan had asked the electoral commission to set a date within the next 90 days; opposition politicians told NPR that reforms are needed before the next vote, otherwise they say the military will “rig” the next elections.

Long-term, things are even less clear. Among civil society leaders in Pakistan, there is agreement that the supreme court’s ruling is good for constitutionalism. But it may also be a vehicle for further expansion of the judiciary’s ability to intervene in politics.

Kureshi, an expert on the courts of Pakistan and how they have increasingly become the arbiter of politics in the country, says the bigger takeaways won’t be fully understood until the court releases the full text of its ruling in the next month or so. That detailed order may set other legal precedents and even cast the opposition in a bad light.

After the immediate euphoria of keeping Khan’s audacious unconstitutional maneuver in check, that judgment may say a lot about how the court sees itself, especially its supervisory role over the parliament and prime minister.

“The elected institutions are deeply constrained by the tutelage of overly empowered unelected institutions, whether it is the military, historically, or the judiciary more recently,” said Kureshi. “Judgments like this give them an opportunity to further affirm and expand that role.”

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Pakistan’s political crisis and the imperatives of economic reform

Pakistan continues to reel from uncertainty as its political transition — ill-timed during a period of domestic and global economic tumult — has yet to consolidate. 

Political volatility during the new governing coalition’s first two months in power has led to policy paralysis. But this paralysis has begun to ease as the army has signaled support for the government and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) continues to press for austerity measures.

The IMF has made clear that it will only release the next $1 billion tranche from Pakistan’s $6 billion Extended Fund Facility if Islamabad raises fuel and electricity prices and takes aggressive measures to reduce the fiscal deficit. And the resumption of the IMF program is essential to unlocking assistance from other bilateral and multilateral partners and staving off a balance of payments crisis. As a result, the coalition led by the Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) (PML-N) has finally started raising energy prices .

These measures will ease Pakistan’s twin deficit challenge, involving both fiscal and current account deficits, but they will also take a heavy toll on the average Pakistani. Inflation, which hit 13.8% in May , could rise to around 20% and remain in the double digits into next year. This will be a painful summer for Pakistanis as they're hit with a one-two punch of rising energy prices and electricity supply cuts .

Understandably, the PML-N would like other power brokers, including the army, to share the political burden of economic reform . Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif has called for the adoption of a Charter of the Economy — a national consensus on economic reform.

The idea is sound, but politically infeasible right now. What is more important is for Pakistan’s current federal and provincial governments to go beyond firefighting and push forward essential reforms — including in agriculture, energy, and local governance — that are key to ensuring the country’s political and economic stability and long-term growth prospects. Indeed, it is in their political interest to do so.

Pakistan’s angry middle class

Pakistan’s power elite must recognize that this is an exceptional moment in the country’s history — an inflection point both politically and economically.

Former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan, once backed by the powerful army and Inter-Services Intelligence agency, is taking on the new government and the army leadership. Khan is not just backed by what one might call the “anti-elite elite,” but also by much of the middle class.

Sixty-two percent of those with a full secondary education or higher said they were “angry” about Khan’s ouster in an April survey conducted by Gallup Pakistan. Given widespread anti-U.S. sentiment, Khan’s claims of being deposed by an American "regime change” campaign have resonated with this demographic. But it’s not the only reason why they support him. Khan is also tapping into their resentment of the status quo.

In recent years, Pakistan’s middle class has been hit hard by unemployment and inflation. According to the Pakistan Human Development Report 2020 from the United Nations Development Program (UNDP), the real growth rate of per capita income for Pakistan’s middle class from the 2013-14 and 2018-19 fiscal years trailed that of the rest of the population (1.2% versus 1.8%). The unemployment rate of those with a college degree or higher surged from less than 5% in 2007-08 to over 16% in 2018-19. Pakistan has a seen an expansion of higher education, but there remains a mismatch between the skill sets and preferences of college graduates and the demands of employers. As the current government reduces blanket subsidies, replacing them with targeted cash transfers for the very poor, macroeconomic stabilization may largely come at the middle class’s expense. And that could have political as well as geopolitical ramifications.

Khan has fused the issues of inflation and national sovereignty by alleging that the Sharif government is afraid of incurring Washington’s wrath by following through on an agreement he claims to have made with Moscow for importing discounted Russian oil. He notes that New Delhi has ramped up imports of Russian oil and, as a result, has been able to avoid fuel price hikes.

A focused reform agenda

The big picture is this: Pakistan’s economy is working, but only for its elite. Sustained, rapid, and equitable economic growth has remained elusive due to policy distortions that serve its civilian and military elite.

The aforementioned UNDP report , produced by a team of Pakistani researchers led by Dr. Hafiz Pasha, offers an exceptional deconstruction of Pakistan’s political economy. It assesses that in the 2017-18 fiscal year alone, Pakistan’s corporate, feudal, and military elite received the equivalent of $13 billion in current dollar terms in “benefits and privileges” — roughly 7% of the country's GDP.

Reform is a long-term process. But Pakistan must make use of this “shock” period to redistribute allocations toward social protection and incentivize greater productivity. Delay is not an option. In the coming years, Pakistan’s challenges will only deepen due to climate change and rapid population growth. Pakistan is already one of the world’s 10 most populous countries and it will remain among those ranks as its population surges over the coming decades.

Pakistan needs a path toward sustained, rapid, and equitable economic growth that incorporates its fast-growing population into the labor market. But Pakistan is a net energy importer with a narrow export base. Periods of economic expansion have been consumption-driven and import-dependent. As a result, Pakistan’s economy overheats once growth passes the 5-6% range . It is vital that the current government devote its energy and reallocate resources toward facilitating export growth, improving agricultural productivity, and addressing the domestic fuel production deficit.

Pakistan’s agricultural sector has grown at an average rate of less than 2% since the 2014-15 fiscal year. Declining agricultural productivity, a rapidly growing population, increasing water stress, and the worsening effects of climate change are all exacerbating an already-serious food security challenge. The agricultural industry also contributes to the massive electric power industry arrears. Pakistan provides hundreds of millions of dollars in annual electric power subsidies for agricultural tube wells. And edible oils are among Pakistan’s top imports .

Policy experiments in Pakistan in recent years have identified solutions to these challenges. For example, conditioning the provision of low-interest loans for solar tube well installation on the use of high-efficiency irrigation systems or allowing net-metering can promote water conservation, lower input costs, and help curtail power sector debt.

Pakistan’s federal and provincial governments should also incentivize innovation in the private sector seed development industry and the local production of edible oils.

With domestic gas and oil reserves in decline, Pakistan’s vulnerability to surges in global fuel prices will grow. It needs to ramp up domestic energy exploration, promote renewables, and assess the feasibility of green hydrogen and ammonia production, especially in southern Balochistan.

Finally, Pakistan must strengthen the “last mile” of governance. Pakistani politicians often hail China’s model of governance, but few recognize the role of decentralization of power and empowerment of local governments in China’s growth story.

To their credit, Pakistan’s politicians banded together to devolve power to the provinces under the 18th Amendment. Yet most have been averse to devolving power down to elected local bodies, with some provincial governments repeatedly delaying local elections. That has left large metropolises like Karachi orphaned when it comes to local governance and stunts their ability to grow and develop independent sources of revenue, including through the issuance of bonds.

Political stability in Pakistan cannot be ensured simply through intra-elite deals made in Islamabad. It also requires improving the last mile of governance and the responsiveness of the state to the needs of the public.

Arif Rafiq is the president of Vizier Consulting LLC, a political risk advisory company focused on the Middle East and South Asia, and a non-resident scholar at the Middle East Institute (MEI). 

Photo by AAMIR QURESHI/AFP via Getty Images

The Middle East Institute (MEI) is an independent, non-partisan, non-for-profit, educational organization. It does not engage in advocacy and its scholars’ opinions are their own. MEI welcomes financial donations, but retains sole editorial control over its work and its publications reflect only the authors’ views. For a listing of MEI donors, please click her e .

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US-Russian Contention in Cyberspace

The overarching question imparting urgency to this exploration is: Can U.S.-Russian contention in cyberspace cause the two nuclear superpowers to stumble into war? In considering this question we were constantly reminded of recent comments by a prominent U.S. arms control expert: At least as dangerous as the risk of an actual cyberattack, he observed, is cyber operations’ “blurring of the line between peace and war.” Or, as Nye wrote, “in the cyber realm, the difference between a weapon and a non-weapon may come down to a single line of code, or simply the intent of a computer program’s user.”

The Geopolitics of Renewable Hydrogen

Renewables are widely perceived as an opportunity to shatter the hegemony of fossil fuel-rich states and democratize the energy landscape. Virtually all countries have access to some renewable energy resources (especially solar and wind power) and could thus substitute foreign supply with local resources. Our research shows, however, that the role countries are likely to assume in decarbonized energy systems will be based not only on their resource endowment but also on their policy choices.

What Comes After the Forever Wars

As the United States emerges from the era of so-called forever wars, it should abandon the regime change business for good. Then, Washington must understand why it failed, writes Stephen Walt.

Telling Black Stories: What We All Can Do

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Policy Brief

• Xenia Dormandy

Since March 2007, tensions in Pakistan have been rising: the political instability surrounding both the presidential and parliamentary elections is commingling with the increase in militant activity within Pakistan proper, which led to around 60 suicide attacks in Pakistan in 2007. Following Benazir Bhutto's assassination on December 27, the extremists have upped the ante, perhaps hoping to disrupt the February 18 elections. Is Pakistan becoming the world's "most dangerous nation"?

Since gaining independence in 1947, Pakistan has veered back and forth between democratically-elected and authoritarian military leaders, coupled with an unstable relationship with neighboring India and Bangladesh. From 1988 to 1999, following Zia ul Haq's death, democracy - albeit an unstable one - reigned; power alternated between Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif, with neither completing a full term as Prime Minister. Finally, in October 1999, a Chief of Army Staff, Pervez Musharraf, led a coup against Sharif and took over as President.

CURRENT SITUATION

Over the past eight years, President Musharraf has done many good things for Pakistan, most notably building a relatively stable and fast-growing economy (GDP growth in 2006 was 6.5%). However, he has made no effort to create independent institutions, improve the provision of education and other social services, or establish local governance systems and networks. The situation has worsened significantly over the past year: the judiciary is now thoroughly politicized, the media is restricted by a "code of conduct", and the interim government is biased. Meanwhile, Musharraf's approval ratings have almost halved from 51% in late 2006 to 28% in early January 2008. Musharraf continues to prioritize his own political survival; however, he is no longer trusted by either the Pakistani people or the international community, leaving him in an untenable situation.

The recent deterioration of Pakistan's political situation has been driven by the following events:

• In March 2007, Musharraf suspended Chief Justice Iftikhar Mohammed Chaudhry for misconduct, triggering a public outcry. Four months later, Chaudhry was reinstated in a ruling by his own Supreme Court; however, the incident sparked an enormous grassroots movement for change.
• In July, security forces raided Islamabad's Red Mosque, a center for radical and militant thought, killing cleric Abdul Rashid Ghazi and an undetermined number of followers (estimates range from around 100 to over 1000). Consequently, Musharraf lost the support of the mullahs, who wield enormous social and moral power in Pakistan.
• On October 6, Musharraf was overwhelmingly reelected President while still acting as Chief of Army Staff. The majority of opposition delegates boycotted the election, and the Supreme Court began assessing the legitimacy of the results.
• On November 3, Musharraf declared a state of emergency and dismissed Chaudhry once again, staffing the caretaker government and judiciary with loyal supporters. As a result, his already-wavering public support plummeted.
• In late November, Musharraf removed his uniform, appointing General Kiyani as the new Chief of Army Staff, and a day later was inaugurated in a new term as president.
• On December 27, nearly two weeks after Musharraf ended emergency rule, Benazir Bhutto was assassinated at a campaign rally. Her 19-year-old son, Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, and her husband, Asif Zardari, were appointed in her stead. In light of the violence that ensued, the parliamentary elections were pushed back to February 18.
• In January 2008, there were at least four major suicide attacks within Pakistan proper; more have followed. Violence and military activity in the tribal areas has risen significantly.

The lack of predictability and transparency through both the presidential and parliamentary elections has amplified the confusion, the instability, and Musharraf's loss of credibility. Recently, these political fights have been compounded by a concurrent rise in militancy, which has fed into the ongoing sectarian violence throughout Pakistan and the fight for more autonomy in Baluchistan. Security in Pakistan is fading; this fact was made clear in January when refugees flooded into Afghanistan from Pakistan, the former being perceived as providing a safer environment.

Short Term: Tensions will remain on the boil at least until the parliamentary elections scheduled for February 18 take place. The militant attacks are not diminishing, and the electoral race continues, complicated by the additional confusion surrounding the new and multi-headed leadership of the PPP. Three scenarios for Pakistan's immediate future are feasible:

• Given the continued violence and particularly if it seems likely that his party will lose badly in the parliamentary elections, it is still possible that President Musharraf could cancel the elections altogether and call a state of emergency. However, it is unlikely that the public would allow Musharraf to maintain this situation for long; ultimately, he would be removed from office, either by the military or by the people.
• The elections could be won by the PPP, either by earning a majority or building a coalition with Sharif's PML-N or Musharraf's PML-Q. If the former coalition is created, then Musharraf will likely be ousted from power and prosecuted for his recent actions. Polls conducted in November 2007 found that if a legitimate election were held, the PPP would win by a slight margin. In early February 2008, polls predicted that the PPP had gained additional sympathetic support after Bhutto's assassination, further increasing their vote bloc.
• Given polling data, it is clear that if Musharraf's party, the PML-Q, wins the parliamentary elections, it will be an illegitimate win. Under these circumstances, there will be a massive popular backlash and he will be ousted.

Regardless of who wins, all of the leading candidates will likely pursue similar policies to Musharraf, with differing levels of competence. Stability will be maintained by the military, particularly given the continuity that General Kiyani brings to the leadership. Any of the candidates for Prime Minister will face the same challenges; variance in their performance will be in the margins, with Sharif likely engaging more with the mullahs and the PPP following a more socialist economic policy.

Long Term: Perhaps the more important factor than the winner is the process followed, and whether the people feel their voices are being heard and their participation encouraged. Pakistan is at a crossroads. It could either follow a slow descent into further authoritarianism and increased militancy and extremism that will be clearly detrimental to Pakistan today and could in 5 to 7 years also become a danger to the rest of the world. Alternatively, it could pursue a slow ascent towards a more stable democratic system with established independent institutions, growing economy, and a nation representative of a moderate Muslim democracy. The people's continued participation will raise the probability of the latter path being taken and so, above all else, it is important that this is encouraged. However, either path is a gradual one, and as such requires patience and a long-term perspective from both Pakistanis and the international community.

RECOMMENDATIONS

The United States needs to pursue the following policy priorities and guidelines:

• Pursue a long-term strategy rather than a short-term one.
• Build trust between the U.S. and Pakistan and its people: Given perceived past fickleness and hypocrisy over promoting democratic sentiments but supporting authoritarian leaders (specifically Musharraf), the Pakistani people do not trust the U.S. Without this, the will to pursue joint interests vigorously will be limited.
• Support democratic processes and stability first and foremost: This means also supporting Pakistan's current focus on the Pakistani Taliban rather than on al-Qaida as being the greater direct threat to Pakistan in the immediate term.
• Prevent Pakistan from becoming the next epicenter of terrorism: This entails continuing to support Pakistan's military efforts at destroying the terrorist threat, as well as engaging hearts and minds, bringing the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) into Pakistan proper.

Given these priorities, the United States should alter current policy by:

• Explicitly stating its support for free and fair elections and, more pertinently, support for the legitimate winner of these elections (discarding the current U.S. ambiguity of supporting both credible elections and President Musharraf in particular);
• Reallocating a greater proportion of current U.S. military assistance to training Pakistan's military in counter-insurgency in Pakistan in the short-term and in the United States in the long-term.
• Transferring around 15% of current military assistance to social and economic assistance specifically to democracy building efforts, supporting independent institutions and grass-roots political organizing.
• Monitoring the current U.S. spending to the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA) and increase as capacity allows.
• Policy Brief: Pakistan Political Stability

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The Political Crisis in Pakistan

by Betty Wehtje | Dec 1, 2022 | Commentary , Democracy & Rule of Law

A political crisis has erupted in Pakistan, following months of unrest since the removal of former Prime Minister Imran Khan in April. Khan lost a no-confidence motion in the parliament and quickly called for his supporters to take to the streets. Since April, protests have occurred across the country with thousands of participants, as Khan accuses his removal of being a conspiracy orchestrated by the US and his political opposition. The political crisis intensified on November 3 , when Khan was shot at a protest in Wazirabad. Khan survived with a wound to the leg and has resumed his fight to return to power, calling for the continuation of his “Long March” toward the capital Islamabad. Since his removal, Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif, one of the leaders of the opposition, has become the temporary Prime Minister in wait for a new election. Yet no general election date has been set. While Khan and his supporters push for the immediate election, the opposition seeks to hold elections when due in August next year. Furthermore, a new army chief has recently been elected by current Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, a crucial position since the army greatly influences Pakistan’s politics, adding to the tense political situation. Pakistan has reached a political stalemate that could turn into a harmful conflict. Pakistan is already heavily challenged by an economic crisis and the destruction after the catastrophic floodings, and further political unrest may only make matters even worse.

  Imran Khan, the PTI, and his Political Opposition

  Imran Khan was elected Prime Minister in July 2018 as the leader of the party Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI). The party was founded in 1996 with Khan as the chairman, and it emerged as a socio-political movement for “ justice ,” including fighting inequality and corruption. PTI grew in popularity over the upcoming decades and gained a majority in the 2018 election, which upset his political opponents. Imran Khan is seen as a charismatic populist who can gather huge public support for his party’s causes. In 2018 he vowed to fight corruption and improve governance, yet the results have fallen short. Pakistan has faced severe economic challenges which the government was unable to counter. Furthermore, Pakistan ranked 140 among 180 countries in the Transparency International Index. According to the index, corruption in 2021 was worse than in 2018. Still, Khan gathers great support among voters in Pakistan and a majority supports his call for direct elections, which might result in his return as Prime Minister. Khan has continued his “Long March” to Islamabad in demand of immediate elections, and supporters have openly stated that they are ready to defend themselves if the protests are met with violence. Khan has recently been accused of derailing democracy when commenting on the possibility of martial laws being imposed in Pakistan as the tense political situation continues.

 Khan’s no-confidence vote was led by the opposition parties, the Pakistan Muslim League – Nawaz (PML-N) and the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP). Some key figures are the current Prime Minister Muhammad Shehbaz Sharif (leader of PML-N), Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari, and Asif Ali Zardari (heads of PPP). Khan has been harsh on the opposition, calling them “a gang of thieves,” threatening to expose their corruption and claim accountability, and the no-confidence vote was seen as an attempt to save themselves . However, the opposition pointed to Khan’s weak performance during his time as Prime Minister, with spiraling inflation and a massive devaluation of the rupee. Additionally, Khan has been criticized for appointing Usman Buzdar as Chief Minister in the Punjab province, who later was accused of widespread corruption . The opposition eventually won the no-confidence vote against Khan in April, as dozens of party members defected and some key allies voted against him. Yet, critical voices point to the army as the decisive actor who tipped the scales to the point that resulted in Khan’s removal, as Khan lost its support during his time as Prime Minister.

The Army: A Powerful and Decisive Player in Politics

 Pakistan is a democracy, yet the country has a powerful and influential army, which significantly impacts politics. Pakistan has a long history of coups and military involvement in politics. There have been four military coups against elected governments since Pakistan’s independence in 1947, the latest being in 1999. The army has continued to have a significant impact on politics, especially concerning security and foreign policy. When Khan became Prime Minister in 2018, he announced his good relations with the army as the two were “on the same page,” and it seemed like Khan enjoyed close ties with the military during his first months in government. However, differences quickly appeared as his leadership did not fulfil its promises, and his opposition blamed the military for bringing him to power. Tensions rose further in late 2021 when Khan opposed the army’s decision to appoint a new chief of the intelligence services since he was a close ally of the incumbent Lt.Gen.Faiz Hameed. Khan eventually lost this fight against the army, and their cleavages became more visible. The war in Ukraine also became a source to widen the division between the army and Khan. With his anti-American policies and fear of India’s growing geopolitical influence, Khan has been getting closer to Russia, with a historic and criticized visit to Moscow on February 24 . He became the first Pakistani Prime Minister to visit Russia since 1999, which happened to take place as the invasion of Ukraine began. While Khan has resisted condemning the war in Ukraine and said Pakistan was to be neutral in the conflict, the military chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa has criticized Russia for its aggression on Ukraine, showing further political differences between Khan and the army.

 Critics have long accused the military of orchestrating the removal of elected governments that do not follow the military’s institutional lines, which Khan and his supporters accused the military of having followed this modus operandi in April. Khan believes his former ally has betrayed him, and he has tried to halter the election of a new army chief which has been discussed this fall. The now outgoing army chief, General Qamar Javed Bajwa, admits that the military has “meddled in politics for decades,” but since February, it has been decided that the institution will no longer do so. Still, Khan has continued to criticize the army, and the newly elected army chief General Asim Munir, appointed by the current Prime minister Shehbaz Sharif, might become yet another backlash for Khan and his relationship with the military.

The Future is Uncertain

 Pakistan is facing great challenges ahead, dealing with both an economic crisis and political instability. Politics are tumultuous, with an “all versus Khan” dynamic, in a changing environment with both a new Prime Minister and a new Chief of the army. The removal of Khan could be seen as part of the democratic process of parliamentary accountability, yet history seems to repeat itself in Pakistan. No democratically elected Prime Minister has ever completed a five-year term due to military coups, presidential ousting, and disqualifications from holding public office. The democratic process in Pakistan is vulnerable and has experienced considerable instability since the country’s independence. Corruption allegations, grievances, and political turmoil are common themes in Pakistani history, with the military as a recurrent stakeholder in politics.

 It is impossible to predict the future of Pakistan, but it does not seem like Khan is to be excluded. His public support appears to have grown even larger since his removal in April, and his continued rallies across the country still attract the masses. The question is when the general elections will be held and if Khan will gain a majority again. Khan has shown his clear will for elections to be held this winter in hopes of keeping up the momentum. On Saturday, Khan said that the PTI would resign from the provincial assemblies to force the Shehbaz Sharif-led government to hold immediate elections. It is still to be seen what role the new Chief of the army will play in this political conundrum. Even though it is said that the army would no longer interfere with politics, Khan’s ousting has again put the army at the epicentre of the Pakistani political landscape. Tensions will likely increase continuously, and it is difficult to say for sure that there is a non-violent solution to the current political crisis unfolding in Pakistan, a country with a turbulent past and a vulnerable democracy.

Betty Wehtje is a research assistant intern at Beyond the Horizon ISSG. She is currently pursuing a Bachelor’s degree in Peace and Conflict Studies at Lund University in Sweden.

Pakistan: A Land of Dented Democracy and Increasing Polarization

NESA Center Alumni Publication Maida Farid (Consultant and an Independent Researcher) 22 June 2023

Pluralism is a key feature of democracy, that is often accompanied by tolerance. These ideas are intertwined, as a pluralistic society acknowledges and respects the diverse opinions, beliefs, and interests of its people. However, when pluralism lacks tolerance and regard for the rights of other groups, it can lead to political polarization.  Political polarization occurs when there is a deep divide between different ideological or political groups, and there is little to no room for negotiation or finding common ground within the political system. In such a scenario, the lack of tolerance and respect for differing viewpoints can hinder the functioning of democracy. Polarized politics can be understood as a growing divide between people with different political views, leading to an environment of mistrust and animosity. It often involves zero-sum disagreements on various policies and rules within the political system. This phenomenon is not limited to any one country but is a global trend. Even the world’s oldest democracies, such as the United States, have faced challenges posed by polarized politics. Pakistan, with its turbulent history of civil-military relations, military interventions, ineffective civilian governments, and linguistic and ethnonational divides, is no exception to polarized politics and the challenges facing democracy. The socio-political fabric of Pakistan is greatly polarized on all levels, from the political elite to the masses, with a noticeable lack of consensus on fundamental democratic norms.

In Pakistan’s context, political polarization can be better understood as a top-down phenomenon rather than a bottom-up one. Throughout the country’s history, political elites have shaped narratives and influenced public sentiments. Thus, political polarization among the masses depends on what occurs in the corridors of power which penetrates the social fabric and polarizes the masses.

The struggle for power between state elites (such as the establishment and judiciary) and political parties can be seen as the primary level of political polarization in Pakistan. Due to this polarization and a lack of consensus, Pakistan has experienced prolonged influence of state institutions in political affairs, including direct military interventions, and judicial activism. The seventy-five years of Pakistan’s history have witnessed limited periods of political harmony and convergence between state institutions and political parties. Pakistan’s journey towards its first constitution took nine years due to a lack of agreement on the basic mode of governance between state institutions.  The parliament, which is meant to represent the people, has often succumbed to external pressures. Parties in power tend to avoid crossing a certain point to maintain their position and not antagonize the institutions. Moreover, the long history of martial law has further divided political parties into pro-establishment and anti-establishment factions.

Pakistan’s political system was established on democratic principles, but it is questionable if the country has experienced true democracy. Instead, Pakistan has had various forms of democracy. Mohammed Wasim in his book Political Conflict in Pakistan refers to democracy in Pakistan as “Establishmentarian Democracy.” He describes different variants of democracy briefly mentioned below:

• Direct Military Rule: Pakistan’s political landscape has seen various forms of governance throughout its history. Direct military rule was imposed on the country for a total of 17 years, with General Ayub Khan leading from 1958 to 1962, General Yahya Khan from 1969 to 1971, General Zia-ul-Haq from 1977 to 1985, and General Pervez Musharraf from 1999 to 2002.
• Military-bureaucratic oligarchy: During the early years of Pakistan’s independence, a bureaucratic polity with an elected government existed for 11 years, from 1947 to 1958. However, this period was characterized by a military-bureaucratic oligarchy, where power was concentrated within the military and bureaucracy.
• Military government under a civilian president: Another form of governance witnessed in Pakistan was military government under a civilian president, following the King’s party model. This lasted for 16 years, with General Ayub Khan serving as the president from 1962 to 1969, General Zia-ul-Haq from 1985 to 1988, and General Pervez Musharraf from 2002 to 2008.
• Elected governments under civilian presidents: where the rule of the Trica model was followed, involving the establishment, judiciary, and parliament. This lasted for 11 years, with Benazir Bhutto serving as the president from 1988 – 1990, Nawaz Sharif from 1990 to 1993, Benazir Bhutto again from 1993 to 1996, followed by a caretaker government in 1996-1997, and Nawaz Sharif again from 1997 to 1999.
• Elected governments that constantly faced military tensions: For a period of 10 years, the Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) held power from 2008 to 2013, followed by the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PMLN) from 2013 to 2018.
• Two years of an elected government and the establishment seemingly on the same page: This occurred from 2018 to 2021, during the tenure of the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party. However, this short-lived marriage of convenience had a bitter ending.

Imran Khan, the former Prime Minister of Pakistan, and chairman of PTI was removed from office through a vote of no confidence in the national assembly. Initially, he alleged it was a U.S. conspiracy aimed at removing him from power. However, a few months later, he shifted the blame to the Pakistan army and effectively gathered a substantial political following that openly expresses its disapproval of the military. What sets Mr. Khan apart from other political leaders is his embrace of populist politics. The populist tendencies of Khan’s leadership have never been more evident before than now. From circumnavigating the constitutional processes, questioning, and targeting constitutional structures, and creating binaries among the masses as outsiders and insiders, Imran Khan seems to have checked all the boxes of a populist leader. Moreover, the tone and the political discourse that Khan has introduced in Pakistani politics are unprecedented.

The current political crisis in Pakistan is being referred to as extraordinary and unprecedented by some, while many political experts and journalists believe it is a recurring loop or vicious cycle that repeats itself every few years. What sets the current crisis apart from past events is the unprecedented level of openness to the public and the public outrage against the military institutions. In a recent event on 9 May 2023, Imran Khan was arrested by Islamabad high court under some corruption charges. The arrest of Khan led to significant outrage and anger among supporters of the PTI. The situation took a chaotic turn when attacks were carried out on the Army General Headquarters (GHQ) in Rawalpindi, and the Corps Commander House, also known as Jinnah House, in Lahore. These events not only caused havoc for those involved in the attacks but also for the PTI’s political leadership. Many PTI leaders were arrested, imprisoned, released on bail, and re-arrested, and many have quit not only their political party but politics altogether.

Those responsible for the attacks on the GHQ and Corps Commander House are being tried in military courts rather than civil courts. Furthermore, thousands of PTI supporters have been arrested in less than a week. While these actions are condemnable, it is crucial to question where the problem lies. Looking back at recent history, when the PTI itself was in power, a long list of false cases was made against their opposition. Many people were falsely imprisoned, accused, and persecuted. At that time, when it suited the PTI’s interests, they did not take any measures to stop or at least condemn the mistreatment of their political rivals. On the contrary, they not only endorsed it but also threatened severe consequences for their political opposition if they did not comply. It now appears that the actions they took against their political rivals are returning to haunt them, albeit with greater speed and severity. And now the current government is doing the same.

The Pakistan army, previously an obscure force operating from behind the scenes, has thrust itself into the public eye, shedding its taboo status and becoming a subject of open discussion. The former Chief of Army Staff General Qamar Javed Bajwa, on the verge of retirement, boldly accepted complete accountability for the chaotic state of politics. He reassured the public that the army would prioritize its core responsibilities and refrain from any political involvement. This declaration initially brought a sense of renewed hope, akin to a breath of fresh air. However, the relief was short-lived.

Immersed in a pool of problems and formidable challenges, it seems difficult to pinpoint a direct and singular solution for Pakistan. The challenges faced are multifaceted and demand an intricate solution. While many solutions have been proposed by the experts over the years, there appears to be an absolute lack of political will to address these issues. The underlying reason for this indifferent attitude is that personal and short-term goals consistently take precedence over national and long-term goals.

Nevertheless, to bring democracy into practice and reinstate the sanctity of institutional boundaries, Pakistan needs to take certain measures. First and foremost, Pakistan army would have to take a clear and strong stance by distancing itself from politics, maintaining neutrality, and avoiding involvement in political processes.  Such a step can be a significant turning point in Pakistan’s democratic journey.

Similarly, the judiciary in Pakistan should not confine itself to juristocracy and hyperactive judicial activism, which can encroach upon political sovereignty. Instead, it should operate within a balanced framework that respects the separation of powers. Legislative assemblies should introduce reforms aimed at strengthening democracy and minimizing external influences in political processes.

Political parties have a vital role to play in upholding democracy. They should strive to build political consensus on shared norms and a code of conduct. Key aspects such as free and fair elections, civil liberties, free media, equality, and peaceful transfer of government must be areas of convergence among political parties. It is crucial that all political parties accept the democratic practices and results thereof. Populist rhetoric should be avoided to gain public support, as it can undermine democratic processes.

Therefore, it is imperative that all the stakeholders identify and acknowledge the magnitude of the issues and display a collective resolve to address these issues effectively.

The views presented in this article are those of the speaker or author and do not necessarily represent the views of DoD or its components.

Law, Order, and the Future of Democracy in Pakistan

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May 21, 2012

Editor’s Note: Paper presented to the NIC-EUISS Conference on Pakistan “Looking towards 2025: drivers of democratic consolidation and stability,” Paris, France, 20-21 May 2012

The optimistic title of this conference attempts an even more optimistic objective: that we understand the factors that will shape Pakistan by the year 2025, and predict how these factors will influence Pakistan’s slow crawl towards democratic consolidation.

There is also a contradiction: democratic consolidation may be inversely related to “stability” if by that we mean the continuation of an oligarchic political order, usually termed “the establishment”. Over sixty years of an establishment-dominated political order—whether by the army or by the army in cooperation with civilians—has not made Pakistan a democratic country in most senses of the word, except that the aspirations of many Pakistanis are to have democracy Pakistan-style. This aspiration is held by many in the army, which would like to have political leaders that can govern Pakistan up to its own high standards.

The law and order problem is correctly defined in the call for papers as the persistence of ungoverned areas, the continuation of militant and criminal violence throughout the country, and low levels of government accountability. The historically expanded role of the military and the groping of the judiciary for a role somewhere between acquiescence and excessive activism are both symptoms and causes. Indeed, this is the core of Pakistan’s problems: there are many, many problems, they are both causes and consequences, they are interrelated, and there are obvious solutions to each, but Pakistan lacks the capacity to systematically undertake internal reforms.

I think that the reasons for failure vary from issue (or factor) to issue. For example, the existence of “ungoverned” areas did not mean that they were ungovernable. India had such areas in its northeast including a separatist movement supported by other countries and with a sturdy base abroad, but it has slowly and systematically used the strategy memorably described to me as “first we hit them over the head with a hammer, then we teach them how to play the piano.” Pakistan, as we were recently reminded, has never tried this; emulating the British they deemed the Tribal areas and frontier provinces too difficult to manage. In a recent opinion piece the American columnist, David Ignatius, writes that Pakistan has missed the opportunity of the century by not working with the large NATO and American forces across the border in Afghanistan; together they could have launched a project that would have begun to establish the writ of the Pakistani state; instead, a mixture of paranoia and the temptation to use the tribals in a proxy war against both India’s presence in Afghanistan and American and ISAF forces proved to be too great. [1] No one will shed any tears when the backlash sweeps over Pakistan, and there is already talk of the importance of “containing” this new Pakistan, no longer a friend but still a danger to itself and its neighbors. [2]

No one solution fits all problems, there are fifteen to twenty variables (depending on who and how one is counting), and we still have no good idea which are fixable and which are permanently going to cripple Pakistan. Nor do I have a good idea which must come first and which can be deferred: I think both questions should be at the core of thinking about Pakistan’s future.  In short, there is a methodological hiatus in contemporary studies of Pakistan, epitomized in the ambitious title of this conference (why not 2030, 2050, or next year?).  To put it succinctly: if you don’t know where you are going any variable will take you there.

Turning to the law and order sector, there have been numerous—and usually good—studies of what needs to be done. [3] The police have to be depoliticized, they have to be well-funded, they need modern equipment, and they need to be reprofessionalized. They are not hopeless—some policing is done very well in Pakistan, and the leadership of most police services is competent, and some are more than that. There also has to be an effective judiciary, independent and concerned about the administration of justice, so police can deal with professional matters, not worry about becoming either agents of the politicians or de facto law courts on the streets and in the interrogation rooms.

This has not happened for one major reason, and several smaller ones. The major reason is the diffident attitude of Pakistan’s armed services, especially the army, towards the police, or towards any other institution of the state or provinces authorised to carry weapons and use deadly force, and which is not under army control (this seems to apply ambivalently to the various private armies and militia groups tolerated by the army for political and strategic purposes). The army simply will not abide a loss of this monopoly, and all other armed forces must be either so weak or so small as to present no imaginable threat to the army’s monopoly of the legitimate use of force within Pakistan, let alone across Pakistan’s borders.

Another, but less important reason for the failure to reform Pakistan’s police services is that it is not a high priority for the political community itself, which finds a corrupt and incompetent police force more amenable than a highly professional one. And, while raising and arming their own street gangs, politicians have been able to reach an understanding with the police forces on local law and order issues—in plain words, as other weakly-governed regions of the world, there is a nexus between the police, the criminals, and the politicians, all of which confirms for the army its need to maintain a tight lid on all three, lest the army itself become infected.

Pakistan’s courts present a somewhat different picture. Long craven and submissive, the courts—led by the Supreme Court—are attempting to restore a normal balance between them and the political community, while also maintaining good relations with the army. The courts are trying to compress two hundred years of constitutional evolution into one decade, and this will be a long and difficult process under the best of circumstances, but at least the journey has begun. What is problematic is that the natural constituency of the courts, the lawyers, are not the shining liberals that some have portrayed them to be.  Others can speak more expertly on this than I, but will the hard core pro-Jamaat lawyers tolerate a truly independent judiciary? The so-called Lawyers’ Movement was anti-dictatorship, but is it pro-democracy?

Again, we come back to the army. Some very distinguished lawyers came to the army’s rescue in the Ayub years when it needed a “doctrine of necessity,” to justify the imposition of martial law during a period of domestic and international crisis. Will this happen again?

The answer to this question is easy: Pakistan will revert to military rule, including the suppression of the courts and the faulty professionalization of all parts of the law and order machinery unless a new role is found for the armed forces, and the political community begins to perform up to a moderately competent standard. I made this argument thirty years ago, [4] but nothing has changed since then, except that Pakistan’s economic and optician decay has accelerated. In a book published in 1985 I argued that the army had to find a responsible and respectable role, other than that of chief political party and tutor to the Pakistani nation. To do that, normalization with India was necessary, so that the army could devote itself to other worthwhile tasks (I suggested an expanded international peace-keeping role as one such task).

This argument raises two questions of supreme importance—and we do not have definitive answers to either of them. First, have some of the factors that will shape Pakistan’s future reached the point of no return—that nothing can be done to reverse what is generally a negative trend across the board? [5] Second, in the case of the army’s role in Pakistan, is normalization with India possible, and would that divert the army from its dominant position in the state, or merely strengthen it? Since we are some distance from normalization this question is moot at the moment, but may become a live issue should the process go forward.

As for the irreversibility of Pakistan’s economic decline, the huge youth bulge (combined with weak educational assets), the growth of sectarianism, the erratic performance of Pakistan’s politicians, are all unknowns. We can predict likely futures in each instance for a short period, a year to five years, but speculating to 2025 seems to me to be naïve and a waste of time. The NIC did this several years ago when it asked a group of non-officials to predict Pakistan’s future. [6] They were, on balance, quite pessimistic. Was this useful to know?  Obviously, some of us will be more optimistic, some of us more pessimistic, but without a serous analysis of the factors that will shape Pakistan’s future, and how they interact, this will be a feel-good (or feel-bad) exercise that lacks a strong analytic base and has zero policy implications. Knowing that the experts feel one way or another is not very helpful information unless we know what they are expert about, and no one is an expert on events that have not happened. [7]

[1] David Ignatius, “ Pakistan blew its chance for security ,” Washington Post, May 17, 2012

[2] Bruce Riedel, “ A New Pakistan Policy: Containment ”, New York Times, October 14, 2011

[3] See the writings of the former policeman, Hassan Abbas, e.g. Reforming Pakistan’s Police and Law Enforcement Infrastructure: Is It Too Flawed to Fix? ( USIP, 2011), also Hassan Abbas, Pakistan 2020: A Vision for a Better Future (New York: Asia Society Pakistan Study Group Report, 2011).

[4] Stephen P. Cohen, The Pakistan Army (Berkeley: University of California Press 1985), with multiple editions and revisions.

[5] My approach has been to divide about sixteen different factors or variables in to four major clusters and I am indebted to my co-authors for suggesting how these might shape Pakistan’s near-term future, five to seven years from now (about 2017). The first cluster includes  educational and demographic variables, propelled or retarded by the economy, a second includes the different beliefs about the “idea” of Pakistan and what it means to be a Pakistani, a third is Pakistan’s “stateness,” the competence of state organs, including the police and military, and the ability of the political community to organize itself to govern, and, fourthly, the influence of outside states and forces upon Pakistan; this includes not only the obvious candidates, such as India, China, and the United States, but also Pakistan’s vulnerability to the negative effects of globalization. See Stephen P. Cohen, “Pakistan: Arrival and Departure,” chapter in Cohen and Others, The Future of Pakistan (Washington, Brookings Press, 2011).

[6] US National Intelligence Council, Global Trends 2015: A Dialogue About the Future it Nongovernmental Experts, NIC 2000-02, , pp 64 ff.

[7] For my own discussion of what others have written about Pakistan’s future see the Afterword to The Future of Pakistan .

Foreign Policy

Asia & the Pacific Pakistan South Asia

Strobe Talbott Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology

Elaine Kamarck

February 29, 2024

Bruce Riedel

January 23, 2023

August 9, 2022

Political Instability in Pakistan: Causes, Impacts, and Way Forward

• Amna Sehrish
• December 15, 2023
• CSS Essays , CSS Solved Essays

Amna Sehrish, a Sir Syed Kazim Ali student, has attempted the CSS essay “ Political Instability in Pakistan: Causes, Impacts, and Way Forward ” on the given pattern, which Sir  Syed Kazim Ali  teaches his students. Sir Syed Kazim Ali has been Pakistan’s top English writing and CSS, PMS essay, and precis coach with the highest success rate of his students. The essay is uploaded to help other competitive aspirants learn and practice essay writing techniques and patterns to qualify for the essay paper.

1-Introduction 

2-Importance of political stability for a country

3-Political instability in Pakistan: A critical overview

• Case in point:  the 2022–23 Pakistan political unrest has a series of political crises after the ousting of the former Prime Minister through a no-confidence motion in April 2022.

4-What are the significant factors behind the political instability in Pakistan?

• ✓ Economic disparities
• Case in point:  The GDP rate was 6.8% during Ayub’s regime since dictators had long terms, leading to consistency in the economic policies
• ✓ Military intervention in politics
• Case in point:  A string of martial laws for over three decades, including Ayub Khan, Zia-ul-Haq, and Pervez Musharraf, adversely affected Pakistan’s democratic stability
• ✓ Ethnic, linguistic, and religious differences
• Case in point: Regional and religious diversity and sectarian differences are the primary sources of contention and conflict in the political context
• ✓ Illiterate representatives
• Case in point:  Many politicians and lawmakers are unaware of the legislative processes they participate in or the technical aspects of the laws they develop

5-Impacts of political instability in Pakistan

• ✓ Decreasing Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)
• Case in point:  According to the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), “Due to the recent ouster of the national government, investors withdrew their investment of $30 Million in the account of FDI.”
• ✓ Rising Terrorism in the country
• Case in point: “ The most recent one was in Baluchistan, in which 14 soldiers have been martyred” (Reuters, 2023)
• ✓ Hindering economic growth
• Case in point:  Political instability can undermine the economy, as investors become wary of investing in a politically unstable country
• ✓ Prevailing Corruption
• Case in point:  The dilemma of corruption now reaches 140th ranking according to the Transparency International, which is increasing in Pakistan as the day passes and with every change in the political regime

 6-Remedial measures

• ✓To conduct transparent and unbiased election
• ✓To build the concept of national integrity
• ✓To work mutually for the betterment of Pakistan
• ✓Enforcement of constitutional law

6-Critical analysis

7-Conclusion 

Political stability is the base upon which a country’s sovereignty, economic might, and international image standstill. Without any doubt, it is politics that manifests the fate of a nation worldwide. However, countries with dwindling politics always lag socially and economically. Ironically, Pakistan is no exception and, unfortunately, among those states that have done little to stabilize their political affairs. Consequently, overshadowing and, for sure, overpowering all other concerns Pakistan faces today, the political instability has undoubtedly straddled the entire country into its shackles. With a saddening heart, political instability has been a long-standing concern in Pakistan that has given birth to various evils, including economic disparities, illiterate representatives, frequent military interventions, and ethnic and linguistic differences.

Adding to it, the biased media and economic inequality have been watering the cactus of political chaos. Moving towards the impacts, terrorism, transition in power, prevailing corruption, and poverty. Nonetheless, it has hindered growth and marred the country’s progress in every dimension, especially in the economic sector. All hope is not lost, as even the darkest cloud has a silver lining. Creating a tolerant culture, encouraging political diversity, and resolving the conflicts of provinces with federation are the remedial measures that could remove the country from the eddy of political instability that prevailed in the entire state. This essay overviews the current situation of politics in Pakistan, its causes and impacts on the state, and some remedial measures.

      At present, the issue of political instability has become a matter of grave concern for Pakistan. The recent ouster of the prime minister in April 2022 through a vote of no-confidence has led the country toward instability and chaos. It has driven the nation to the brink of an implosion due to its manifestation in Pakistan in the form of blame games, institutional decay, rising inflation, and economic woes. It casts dire consequences on the people’s political and economic development and social well-being. Consequently, Pakistan has faced an acute foreign currency shortage after political instability, which may lead to a crisis similar to Sri Lanka.

Sadly, the continuous political maneuvers have inflicted significant economic harm and undermined public trust in the democratic and political setup in recent years. Thus, the government must find a way to make a positive political statement while addressing the factors and causes leading to political stability.

 Discussing the factors causing political stability in Pakistan for several decades is essential. First, Pakistan’s economy has remained the prey of political unrest. Despite its vast economic resources, the country still faces severe economic stagnation due to this menace. It is true political instability leads to constantly changing economic policies. As a result, investors feel reluctant to invest in such a volatile economy, which ultimately affects the country’s economic progress, which was better in military regimes than that of democratic regimes due to their long tenure.  The GDP rate was 6.8% during Ayub’s regime since dictators had long terms, leading to consistency in the economic policies. However, the growth rate declined in subsequent governments, causing the country to borrow heavily from domestic and international monetary institutions or funds.  Hence, political unrest can never let the country’s economy function smoothly.

     Apart from the economy, military intervention in political affairs is the second factor that has hindered the process of democratization within countries like Pakistan. Even though direct military interventions in political affairs or coups are now scarce, the indirect influence of the military still exists, which can overshadow and controlled the decisions of democratically elected political leaders. For instance,  a string of martial laws for over three decades, including Ayub Khan, Zia-ul-Haq, and Pervez Musharraf, adversely affected Pakistan’s democratic stability . Moreover, the inadequate and vulnerable civil-military relationship has led the country to political instability. Thus, military intervention is one of the factors behind Pakistan’s stagnant growth in the social, political, and economic arenas, while ethnic and cultural divide also affects the political environment.

      The third factor, apart from the economic situation and military intervention exacerbating Pakistan’s political environment, is the nation’s ethnic, linguistic, and religious diversity significantly contributed to the country’s political instability. The government is home to diverse ethnic groups, each with its language and culture, frequently leading to regional inequities and tensions.  Sorrowfully, regional and religious diversity and sectarian differences are the primary sources of contention and conflict in the political context . Furthermore, religious fanaticism and sectarian wars have contributed to the political landscape’s destabilization. The absence of effective means for addressing and integrating these disparate groups into the national narrative has prolonged a cycle of political turmoil and degraded government. So, the lack of expertise and adequate qualifications also influence the country’s political stability.

      Lastly, in Pakistan’s political system, the prevalence of uneducated or poorly educated representatives has hampered efficient governance and policymaking. Many politicians may lack the skills and expertise to solve complicated national issues, develop cohesive policies, or grasp the ramifications of the laws they create and implement due to a lack of academic or professional credentials.  Many politicians and lawmakers are unaware of the legislative processes they participate in or the technical aspects of the laws they develop . This circumstance might lead to rash or ill-informed actions that fail to meet the demands of the public or address the country’s problems. Furthermore, the prominence of such lawmakers frequently indicates a more significant issue of insufficient political representation and a failure to emphasize education and intellectual rigour in the political arena. Thus, these factors significantly affect the country’s political stability, causing several consequences.

      Moving forward, the causes of political instability lead to several negative impacts on the country. It reduces a country’s foreign direct investment (FDI). Investors do not feel comfortable investing in a nation with political uncertainty.  According to the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), investors withdrew their investment of $30 Million in the account of FDI due to the recent ouster of the national government.  Moreover, it has multiplier effects, such as low investment in a country leading to joint development, increased unemployment, increased poverty, and reduced foreign exchange reserves. Hence, political chaos in the nation is a severe blow to an already fragile economy and leads to crime.

      Further, political chaos and ensuing economic challenges will aid in breeding crime, fostering corruption, promoting sectarianism, and causing terrorism. The centre of the country is rudderless as not only is the economic stagnation, but there is also the case of increasing acts of terror.  “The most recent incident was in Baluchistan, in which 14 soldiers were martyred,” according to the Reuters, 2023.  Besides, the US embassy and many others have warned their diplomats of the looming security threats. The scenario puts Pakistan in further trouble, ultimately risking the country’s image. Though terrorism has been a persistent issue in Pakistan, it has worsened recently because the government failed to take a tough decision, especially with the current political instability that has put the country and its people at risk. Therefore, political instability is reflected in rising terrorism while adversely influencing the economy.

      Moreover, political instability in Pakistan has been a severe impediment to economic progress apart from the terrorism challenge. This insecurity creates an unpredictable climate, discouraging both domestic and international investment. A classic illustration of this is the scenario after the national government was deposed, which resulted in a dramatic drop in investor confidence. Economic disruptions impede economic activity, resulting in unemployment, lower income levels, and stunted growth. The absence of stable administration and clear policies makes long-term investment difficult for firms, eventually reducing the country’s economic growth and harming its worldwide competitiveness. The political instability also leads to corruption, aggravating the already derailed economy.

      Finally, Pakistan is a country with diverse ethnicities, and various political regimes ruled the country since its inception, which has resulted in corruption that has negatively influenced the economic growth mechanism of the nation over the period. Evidently, the political demise in Pakistan has mainly been incurred due to corruption by the democratic rulers, which forced the military leadership to take the reign of the government.  The dilemma of corruption now reaches 140th ranking according to the Transparency International, which is increasing in Pakistan as the day passes and with every change in the political regime.

 The party in power tries to maintain the authority, and the opposition party plans to achieve control of the government. The country must take drastic measures to maintain political stability.

      To fix the issue, Pakistan must take several steps. The country must ensure a transparent election system. By implementing transparency, the elected political party could get a chance to serve the nation. Moreover, this may also enable the end of dynastic politics. Additionally, building unity and national integrity among the public may help set aside ethnic and linguistic differences so that the political leaders don’t further exploit the nation for their political interests. So, national integrity in the state would push the political parties to work in favour of the state. 

      Next, political parties and stakeholders must work mutually and collaborate for Pakistan’s betterment. Similarly, encouraging public participation may help pluck the country out of the political darkness. The active role of the public in politics would hold politicians accountable. Moreover, enforcing constitutional law in a true spirit and adequately working government can turn the tide and put the country on the right track. As a result, the political parties would restrain themselves from skipping the pro-state attitude.

      A critical analysis of Pakistan’s political instability uncovers a complicated web of interconnected challenges. Despite reduced direct intervention, the entrenched military presence overshadows Pakistan’s political landscape. This continued military domination has inhibited the development of solid democratic institutions, resulting in a cyclical sequence of unstable governments. Furthermore, the inability to handle ethnic, linguistic, and religious issues effectively has worsened political fragmentation, hampering the establishment of a unified national identity. The existence of illiterate or undereducated political representatives exacerbates the situation by impeding effective policymaking and governance. These issues, taken together, threaten Pakistan’s political stability, resulting in adverse economic effects such as reduced foreign investment and sluggish economic growth. Pakistan must prioritize its way out of this morass.

      In conclusion, political instability in Pakistan is a complex and multi-faceted issue, and addressing it will require a comprehensive and integrated approach. By addressing the underlying causes, strengthening democratic institutions, promoting ethnic and religious tolerance, and addressing economic instability, Pakistan can work towards establishing a stable and effective democratic system and a brighter future for its citizens. Further, the indirect influence of the military in politics, like its direct involvement, is dangerous. The indirect overshadowing of politics disables the leadership from operating and performing political duties, hindering political and economic development. Moreover, it has robbed the nation’s bright future and has pushed the state to the brink of implosion. However, conducting transparent and unbiased elections, building the concept of national integrity, enforcing constitutional laws in a true sense, and encouraging public participation may help control the issue. 

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Why is Pakistan expelling Afghan refugees?

Afghanistan says the move is illegal, but Pakistan insists it’s for security reasons.

Hundreds of thousands of Afghans are being forced to leave Pakistan as part of a government crackdown.

Many have lived there for decades and consider it their home.

But the Pakistani government blames Afghans for a surge in attacks by armed groups.

Human rights groups say the deportations violate international law and many refugees face dangers if they are forced to return to Afghanistan.

Is this politically motivated? And how will Taliban officials deal with it?

Presenter: James Bays

Nilofer Afridi Qazi – social worker and public policy specialist

Faiz Zaland – professor of political science at Kabul University

Devon Cone – senior advocate for women and girls at Refugees International

Today's Paper | April 22, 2024

Pml-n looks to take early lead in by-polls.

• Initial, unconfirmed results indicate ruling party leading on nearly all Punjab seats • Lone Sindh seat goes to PPP; PTI grabs two more seats in KP; PML-N and BNP-M set to bag one seat each in Balochistan • Polling day marred by multiple incidents of violence across country; one killed in Narowal

ISLAMABAD: The ruling PML-N seemed to be in a commanding position after the close of polling, as by-elections were held in 21 constituencies across the country, initial and unofficial results showed on Sunday.

In Punjab, the election was held on 12 provincial and two national assembly seats, in Khyber Pakh­tunkhwa, the election was held on four seats, two seats in Balo­chistan, and one National Assembly seat in Sindh was also up for grabs.

As per a preliminary count, the PML-N appeared to be leading in all constituencies in Punjab, except Rahim Yar Khan.

In Sindh, the PPP candidate was the likely winner whereas in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, PTI-backed candidates were leading on two seats in D.I. Khan and Kohat, with PTI-backed Faisal Amin Khan Gandapur securing victory in NA-44, as per the unofficial result released by the returning officer in D.I. Khan.

Although parts of Punjab and KP saw across-the-board suspension of mobile and internet services and the army was deployed for security purposes along with police and civil armed forces, the by-polls witnessed multiple incidents of violence , leading to the death of a PML-N supporter in a clash outside a Narowal polling station.

In Sheikhupura, four people were wounded whereas PML-N and PPP supporters clashed in Rahim Yar Khan.

The NA seats on which by-elections took place included NA-119 (Lahore) and NA-132 (Kasur), while the Punjab Assembly seats for which the by-polls took place included PP-22 (Chakwal), PP-32 (Gujrat), PP-36 (Wazirabad), PP-54 (Narowal), PP-93 (Bhakkar), PP-139 (Sheikh­upura), PP-147, PP-149, PP-158, and PP-164 (Lahore), PP-266 (Rahim Yar Khan) and PP-290 (Dera Ghazi Khan).

In Punjab, the turnout was low as key leaders stayed away from electioneering. However, the polling exercise was marred by allegations of rigging, with the PTI claiming to be at the receiving end.

A supposed ‘confession’ by a presiding officer at a polling station in Lahore was circulated with the claim that he had obtained the signatures of agents before the end of polling, while a video clip supposedly showing irregularities at a Wazirabad polling station also circulated on Sunday.

The PTI alleged that the presiding officer for polling station-127 in Lahore’s PP-149 had made polling agents sign the Form-45 before the culmination of the polling and the officer was quoted as “admitting” the irregularity arguing that “he had done so to save time”. PTI-SIC candidate Zeshan Rashid staged a sit-in at the polling station to protest this transgression.

In Gujrat, former Punjab chief minister Parvez Elahi’s wife Sumera Elahi alleged that ballot papers were snatched and stuffed into ballot boxes in favour of PML-Q’s Musa Elahi, a nephew of ex-CM Parvez, at the Kathala polling station while the police ignored this practice. PTI Chairman Barrister Gohar Ali Khan and opposition leader in the national assembly Omar Ayub Khan along with other party leaders also reached Gujrat to monitor the situation.

The Lahore police also arrested former PTI MPA Shabbir Gujjar from the Valencia Town polling station apparently without any charge.

Likewise, a video clip showed the recovery of dozens of ballot papers purportedly from the presiding officer of a polling station in PP-36 Wazirabad. In Rahim Yar Khan, the PPP workers alleged that PML-N supporters attacked them with batons to push them away from the polling stations where the PPP candidate was winning.

They claimed that a female polling agent of the PPP was also “kidnapped by the ruling party supporters”. By the filing of this report at 11pm, the ruling PML-N was leading all the electoral contests except in Rahim Yar Khan.

Balochistan

In Balochistan, elections were held on PB-22 (Lasbela) and PB-20 (Wadh), whereas re-polling was held in PB-50 (Qila Abdullah) amid some reports of violence.

According to the unofficial result, PML-N’s Nawab­zada Zareen Magsi won from Lasbela with 49,777 votes while independent candidate Shahn­awaz Hassan got 3,869 votes. In Wadh, Mir Jahanzeb Mengal obtained 30,455 votes while Shafiq Mengal got 14,311 votes.

In Lasbela, Mir Hassan Jamote who was contesting the by-election on the PPP ticket withdrew from the contest in favour of Zareen Magsi on the directive of President Asif Ali Zardari. Nawabzada Zareen Magsi is son of Mir Aamir Magsi, a leader of PPP Sindh and son-in-law of ex-CM Jam Kamal.

In Qila Abdullah, armed men barged into polling stations during the re-polling, prompting a notice from the ECP chief, Sikandar Sultan Raja who asked the police chief to submit a report in this regard. “Strict action should be taken against those who are responsible for entering the polling stations,” he told the Balochistan IGP.

In a press conference, Pashtoonkhwa Milli Awami Party (PkMAP) leader Abdul Rahim Ziaratwal claimed that armed men entered polling stations and took hostages.

The Awami National Party leaders shifted the blame and said the PkMAP was behind this incident. However, the polling continued.

The Supreme Court had ordered re-polling in the constituency when the election commission’s decision regarding re-polling in 12 polling stations was challenged. The apex court rejected the decision of the election commission and ordered re-election in the entire constituency.

Engineer Zamrak Khan Piralizai of the ANP and Mirwais Achakzai of the PkMAP were vying for this seat. On February 8, the former was elected to this seat for the fourth time.

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa

In KP, by-elections were held in NA-8 (Bajaur), NA-44 (D.I. Khan), PK-22 (Bajaur) and PK-91 (Kohat). The situation largely remained peaceful barring minor altercations at some polling stations. Voters and supporters of various candidates complained about sudden changes to some polling stations in Khar and Sadiqabad areas of the Bajaur district.

Workers of different political parties, however, said the turnout was lower than expected, while the participation of women voters was even lower. Polling staff at several polling stations for women told Dawn the number of women voters was “very low”.

In NA-8, the competition acc­o­rding to the unofficial initial results, seemed to be between PTI-backed Gul Zafar Khan and the independent candidate Mubarak Zeb Khan, younger brother of the slain PTI leader Rehan Zeb Khan. Mubarak Zeb Khan was reportedly the winner in PK-22 as well.

The NA-44 seat became vacant when Faisal Amin’s brother and Chief Minister Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Sardar Ali Amin Khan Gandapur vacated it.

According to unofficial results of all 358 polling stations issued by the Returning Officer, PTI-backed Faisal Amin Khan Gandapur secured 66,332 votes while his runner up candidate Abdur Rasheed Khan Kundi of PPP bagged 21,972 votes.

The overall voter turn out remained quite low which was 24.40 per cent.

In Sindh, PPP’s Khursheed Ahmed Junejo was ahead with 15,932 votes from 65 polling stations according to the unofficial results from NA-196 in Shahdadkot. Mr Junejo bagged 15,932 votes from 65 polling stations out of the total 303 polling stations in Shahdadkot.

Our correspondents in Bajaur, D.I. Khan and Kohat also contributed to this report

Published in Dawn, April 22nd, 2024

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Deputy Chairman Senate Syedal Khan Nasir called on Punjab Governor Muhammad Baligh Ur Rehman in Lahore today.

Matters of mutual interest and the overall political situation of the country were discussed during the meeting.

Speaking on the occasion, the Governor said that the government is taking concrete measures to resolve issues being faced by the country.

A Cheat Sheet to the Middle East’s Web of Friends and Enemies

By Daniel Levy Graphics by Gus Wezerek

Mr. Levy is the president of the U.S./Middle East Project and a former peace negotiator for Israel.

At the U.N. General Assembly in September, the Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, brandished a map titled “The New Middle East” and asserted that Israel’s ties with Arab states were helping to create a corridor of peace from India through the Persian Gulf, via Israel, to Europe. A week later, the U.S. national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, declared, “The Middle East region is quieter today than it has been in two decades.”

A lot has changed in six months. The Israeli occupation of Palestinian lands — ignored in those expressions of optimism — has come back to the fore. Missiles are darting across the Middle East as the war between Israel and Hamas spills over into neighboring countries, with Iran and Israel exchanging direct missile and drone strikes for the first time.

To keep track of what is going on between some of the key players, we sketched out a social network of friends, enemies and frenemies involved in the region. Examining the web makes it clear how snarled and precarious the current situation is.

Here’s a simplified guide to the friendly , hostile and complicated dynamics between a handful of major countries and forces in the Middle East.

In one corner, so to speak, stand Israel and the United States. The U.S. government sends billions of dollars in arms and aid to Israel every year and has been the primary supporter of the country’s military. The nations’ closeness stretches back to Israel’s founding in 1948 and the Cold War, when Israel partnered with America to counter Soviet influence in the Middle East. Today, the benefits of rigid support for Israel are less obvious to the United States. Israel has built strong relations with China and has neither cut ties with Russia nor offered military support to Ukraine.

More consequentially, America’s support for Israel enables the country’s brutal treatment of Palestinians, which is deeply unpopular across the region and beyond. Iran, Syria and the Houthis, a political and armed group that controls much of Yemen, maintain a hostile position toward Israel (and vice versa). And Israel has formal diplomatic relations with just a handful of neighboring countries.

Afghanistan

No formal relations

with Israel

Arabian Sea

Israel’s primary military engagement at the moment is with Hamas, which has controlled Gaza since 2007. Hamas led the Oct. 7 attacks that killed about 1,200 Israelis.

For years, Qatar provided financial aid to Gaza at Israel’s encouragement and with American support. Mr. Netanyahu’s government now uses those payments to blame Qatar for helping Hamas stay in power — a policy that he in fact supported.

While Israel’s relationship with Qatar is complicated , the United States counts the small, natural-gas-rich state as a friend and has a large air base there. Qatar has often coordinated with the United States as a mediator in various conflicts, including the current war between Israel and Hamas. Their friendship was tested in 2017 when then President Trump supported a blockade of Q atar led by Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Qatar’s relationship with Saudi Arabia improved after the blockade ended in 2021, and President Biden has worked much more closely with the country than his predecessor did.

• In 2015, Saudi Arabia launched a military campaign against the Houthis in Yemen.
• Last year, Prince Mohammed helped welcome the Syrian president, Bashar al-Assad, back into the Arab League.
• Before the Oct. 7 attack, the Saudis were in serious talks, led by the United States, to recognize Israel.

Israel has a major incentive to strengthen relations with Saudi Arabia. Gaining the approval of the richest Arab state could open the door to recognition from other Muslim nations and, more importantly for Israel, deflect criticism of the country’s treatment of Palestinians. Saudi Arabia, for its part, would benefit from direct access to the Israeli military and technology sector. But its main interest in a pact with Israel is upgrading its relationship with Israel’s ally, the United States.

The Biden administration was initially cold toward Saudi Arabia and its ambitious crown prince. But as the United States focused more on China, Russia and Ukraine, the Arab oil juggernaut started to look like an indispensable partner in managing global and regional threats, such as Iran’s growing political power, and resumed nuclear efforts . Saudi Arabia shares many of the United States and Israel’s concerns about Iran but has kept its options open, resuming and deepening diplomatic ties with Tehran in a deal brokered last year by China.

The United States’ defeat of Saddam Hussein in Iraq, Iran’s greatest regional adversary, and the power vacuums created by the 2011 Arab Spring uprisings have allowed Iran to increase its influence in the Middle East. Iran’s allies include the Houthis, militias in Iraq , President Bashar al-Assad in Syria, and Hezbollah, a political and resistance movement in Lebanon. They have all maintained or gained strength in recent years. Together with Hamas, they constitute an “axis of resistance” against Israel and the United States.

• Houthis have targeted ships in the Red Sea registered to Israel or its supporters and have been bombed by the United States in response.
• Hezbollah and Israel have exchanged intense fire across the Lebanese border, which could become the epicenter of a wider regional conflagration.
• Senior Iranian military officials were killed when Israel bombed the country’s embassy in Syria. Iran retaliated with drone and missile strikes.

Given the largely antagonistic relations in the region, further provocations by Mr. Netanyahu’s hard-right government could be all it takes to tilt the Middle East into all-out war.

Our network is far from comprehensive in its scope. Two of Israel’s neighbors with whom it has peace treaties — Egypt, which is part of mediation efforts with Hamas, and Jordan — are not featured here. In Jordan in particular, public outrage is palpable, often spilling into the streets. Anger rose a notch following Jordan’s cooperation (hesitantly acknowledged by its leadership) in responding to the April 13 Iranian drone and missile strike on Israel.

Also excluded from the graphic are countries that normalized relations with Israel, including under the Abraham Accords: Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Sudan and Morocco. These ties have proved resilient under the strain of six months of war, and the inaction of these Arab states as Israel kills tens of thousands of Palestinian civilians lays to rest any naïve notion that the Abraham Accords could help deliver Palestinian rights and freedoms.

Readers may notice that the Palestinian node in our graphic shows Hamas rather than the Fatah-led Palestine Liberation Organization and its arm of limited governance in the West Bank, the Palestinian Authority. The Authority is deeply unpopular, and continues to cooperate with Israel even as Israel entrenches its control over the Palestinians while expanding illegal settlements. Calls for political change are rife in Palestinian society, at home and abroad. Excluding Hamas from future Palestinian political arrangements is an Israeli-U.S. pipe dream .

Meanwhile, successive U.S. administrations have sought to pivot away from entanglement in the Middle East, especially in the wake of America’s disastrous invasion of Iraq, a trend accelerated by America’s sharper focus on China and now Russia. Both the Trump and Biden administrations had seen promise in a version of a Pax Americana with less of a direct role for the United States and deeper military cooperation with regional allies as deterrence, particularly against Iran and its axis. That, in turn, would necessitate closer cooperation between Israel and more Arab states.

The human cost and horror of Israel’s actions in Gaza have diminished these possibilities. Moreover, the shattering of the myth of Israeli invincibility and the Israel Defense Forces’ intelligence and operational shortcomings since Oct. 7, combined with the Israeli government’s growing extremism, render closer relations with Israel far less attractive for many Arab states.

Countries in the region have also driven de-escalation on their own in recent years. The four-state blockade of Qatar, led by the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, came to an end, and the Gulf states are all back on talking terms. Turkey (also not in our network) has mended fences across most of the region. The Saudi-led military action in Yemen has been winding down. In March 2023, China brokered a breakthrough, re-establishing ties between two of the region’s heavyweights, Iran and Saudi Arabia.

Our network also shows that America is still somewhat trapped in this region. (Imagine that we swapped out the United States for China or Russia; neither would be connected to any other node by a red line of hostility.) America’s options remain circumscribed while it continues a lockstep alliance with an Israel that appears unwilling to shift course on the Palestinian question and is increasingly internationally defined as an apartheid regime. Israel’s campaign in Gaza — the killing of some 14,000 children, according to the Gazan health ministry, the devastation of cities and the humanitarian crisis, all while the United States has continued to arm Israel and support it at the United Nations — may only exacerbate America’s troubles.

Amid current tensions, it’s hard to imagine a transition toward regional de-escalation that would include rights and justice for Palestinians. But the magnitude of the current war in Gaza has upended calcified strategies, and that could be a harbinger of previously unlikely openings.

More on the widening war in Israel and Gaza

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Daniel Levy is the president of the U.S./Middle East Project and served as an Israeli peace negotiator at the Oslo-B talks under Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin and the Taba negotiations under Prime Minister Ehud Barak.

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