formulate the hypothesis of tropical cyclone freddy in mozambique

Hypothesis on Tropical Cyclone Freddy in Mozambique

Tropical cyclones, also known as hurricanes or typhoons in different parts of the world, are among the most powerful and destructive meteorological events on Earth. Their formation and trajectory are influenced by a complex interplay of geographic and climatic factors. This study focuses on Tropical Cyclone Freddy, which recently wreaked havoc in Mozambique, a southeast African country known for its rich cultural heritage and diverse landscapes.

Tropical Cyclone Freddy provides a unique case study for grade 12 Geography students to explore. By examining various variables such as sea surface temperatures, atmospheric pressure, wind speed and direction, and geographical features of Mozambique, learners can generate and test hypotheses that could explain the cyclone’s characteristics and impacts.

Table of Contents

Guide for Generating a Hypothesis on Tropical Cyclone Freddy in Mozambique

Step 1: Understand the Problem

The first step in any scientific inquiry is to understand the problem at hand. In this case, the problem is Tropical Cyclone Freddy in Mozambique. Research about tropical cyclones, their causes, and impacts. Understand the geographical and climatic conditions of Mozambique. Consider what you already know about the factors that contribute to the formation and the path of a tropical cyclone.

Step 2: Gather Preliminary Data

Find data about Tropical Cyclone Freddy. This could include its path, wind speed, rainfall, damage caused, etc. Also, try to find data about the conditions in Mozambique before, during, and after the cyclone. This could include data about temperature, humidity, atmospheric pressure, and oceanic conditions. Other relevant data might include the time of the year the cyclone occurred, the state of the El Niño/La Niña cycle, and Mozambique’s geographical features that might influence cyclone paths.

Step 3: Identify Variables

From your research and the data gathered, identify the variables that might be connected to the problem. Variables could be anything that could influence the cyclone’s formation, path, or impacts. Examples might include sea surface temperature, atmospheric pressure, humidity, wind speed and direction, Mozambique’s topography, and population density.

Step 4: Formulate Your Hypothesis

A hypothesis is a testable statement that predicts the relationship between variables. Based on your understanding of the problem and the data you’ve gathered, make an educated guess about what might have caused or influenced the cyclone’s formation, path, or impacts. Your hypothesis should clearly state what you think the relationship is between your identified variables.

For example: “If sea surface temperatures were above average in the Indian Ocean off the coast of Mozambique prior to Tropical Cyclone Freddy, then this may have contributed to the cyclone’s formation and intensity.”

Step 5: Test Your Hypothesis

Plan and conduct an investigation to test your hypothesis. This could involve more detailed data analysis, creating models, running simulations, or even conducting experiments if possible.

Step 6: Analyze Your Results and Draw Conclusions

Analyze the results of your investigation to see if they support your hypothesis. If the data supports your hypothesis, then it may be valid. If the data doesn’t support your hypothesis, then it may need to be revised or discarded.

Remember, in scientific inquiry, even a hypothesis that turns out to be incorrect is valuable because it contributes to our understanding of the world. The goal is not necessarily to prove your hypothesis right, but to understand more about the world.

Step 7: Communicate Your Findings

Lastly, communicate your findings in a clear, organized manner. This could be in the form of a report, presentation, or discussion. Include your initial hypothesis, the methods you used to test it, your results, and what those results mean in the context of your hypothesis.

This guide should help you formulate and test a hypothesis about Tropical Cyclone Freddy in Mozambique. Remember, the process of scientific inquiry is iterative and often requires multiple rounds of hypothesis generation, testing, and revision. Good luck!

Example of Hypothesis Related to Tropical Cyclone Freddy in Mozambique

Here are ten possible hypotheses related to Tropical Cyclone Freddy in Mozambique. Remember, these are educated guesses based on what we know about tropical cyclones and the geography and climate of Mozambique. They would each need to be tested using appropriate methods and data.

• Hypothesis on Sea Surface Temperature: Higher sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean off the coast of Mozambique contributed to the increased intensity of Tropical Cyclone Freddy.
• Hypothesis on Atmospheric Pressure: Lower atmospheric pressure in the region where Tropical Cyclone Freddy formed led to the cyclone’s rapid intensification.
• Hypothesis on Wind Patterns: The prevailing wind patterns at the time of Tropical Cyclone Freddy’s formation influenced its path, leading it to make landfall in Mozambique.
• Hypothesis on Humidity Levels: High humidity levels in the atmosphere over Mozambique contributed to the high rainfall amounts associated with Tropical Cyclone Freddy.
• Hypothesis on Topography: The flat coastal plains of Mozambique contributed to the extensive flooding caused by Tropical Cyclone Freddy.
• Hypothesis on El Niño/La Niña Cycle: The stage of the El Niño/La Niña cycle at the time of Tropical Cyclone Freddy’s formation influenced its intensity and path.
• Hypothesis on Land Use: Deforestation and land use changes in Mozambique have increased the country’s vulnerability to the impacts of tropical cyclones like Freddy.
• Hypothesis on Urbanization: Urbanized areas in Mozambique experienced more severe impacts from Tropical Cyclone Freddy due to factors like population density and infrastructure.
• Hypothesis on Climate Change: Climate change, as evidenced by rising sea surface temperatures and increased atmospheric moisture, is making tropical cyclones like Freddy more intense and more damaging when they make landfall in Mozambique.
• Hypothesis on Coastal Barrier Systems: Degradation of coastal barrier systems, such as mangrove forests and coral reefs, has increased Mozambique’s vulnerability to storm surges associated with tropical cyclones like Freddy.

Each of these hypotheses can be tested using a combination of historical data, climate models, geographical analysis, and potentially ground-based surveys or studies.

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Impacts and lessons from tropical cyclone Freddy

An assessment undertaken by the African Union Commission (AUC) jointly with the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) on the impact of Tropical Cyclone Freddy in Madagascar, Mozambique and Malawi, identified important lessons for recovery. The assessment took place end of August 2023.

The Cyclone hit first Mozambique during the fourth week of February as it made a turn to Madagascar causing severe destruction in the town of Mananjary in Madagascar before it made a second landfall in Mozambique as it headed to Malawi. This made Cyclone Freddy a record-breaking, becoming the longest-lasting tropical cyclone ever recorded worldwide. Additionally, it became the third-deadliest tropical cyclone recorded in the Southern Hemisphere, after Cyclone Idai in 2019 and Cyclone Flores in 1973.

One week before Cyclone Freddy could hit Mozambique, H.E. Filipe Jacinto Nyusi, President of the Republic of Mozambique and the AU Champion of Disaster Risk Reduction, made a landmark   visit to the AMHEWAS Situation Room for Disaster Risk Reduction  on 17 February  2023, at a time when the AMHEWAS Situation Room was monitoring the Cyclone Freddy as it was heading to Madagascar and Mozambique. Cognisance of devastating impacts that Madagascar experienced in 2022, President Nyusi requested the AUC to support Madagascar as its braces for the impact from Cyclone Freddy.

In fulfilment of the AU’s Champion call, the assessment mission was undertaken to assess the impact of the Cyclone in the affected countries, to identify lessons and opportunities for resilience building.

Mr Harsen Nyambe Nyambe, the AUC Director of  Sustainable Environment and Blue Economy  (SEBE), headed the delegation. The AUC delegation comprised of officers from the Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) Unit, the Directorate of Information and Communication (DIC) and the  Department of Health, Humanitarian Affairs and Social Development . Mr Anderson Banda, the Director of the SADC  Humanitarian and Emergency Operations Centre  (SHOC), represented the SADC. Three experts from the United Nations Development Programme also participated in the mission. Representative of the Embassies and Permanent Mission of the three countries participated in the mission. The team had first-hand interactions with the authorities and communities ravaged by the Cyclone in Mananjary in Madagascar, Quelimane in Mozambique, and Blantyre in Malawi. 

In Madagascar, Hon. Tokely Justin, Minister of Interior and Decentralisation of the Republic of Madagascar received the team upon arrival. Hon. Tokely highlighted that the country is always on the Cyclone path and is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The Minister was also accompanied by the  National Office for Risk and Disaster Management  (BNGRC). Hon. Tokely also appreciated the support offered by the African Union earlier in 2023 in the aftermath of Cyclone Freddy. While in Madagascar, the team visited the town of Mananjary, in the region of Vatovavy, where the Cyclone hit. Mananjary has been devastated by many cyclones, including the Batsirai in early 2022 and Freddy in 2023. Cyclone Freddy destroyed hospitals and health centres, and 58,000 children were out of schools after the destruction of their classrooms. Also, the community is facing acute malnutrition.

In Mozambique, the group first held discussions with the  National Institute for Disaster Risk Management  (INGD) and other sectors including meteorology, education and housing, through the United Nations Human Settlements Programme (UN-Habitat). The team also visited the city of Quelimane, in the province of Zambezia, and interacted with communities directly affected by Cyclone Freddy in Namitangurine. The group later held talks with the Office of the Secretary of State in Quelimane. In , Quelimane, Cyclone Freddy resulted in the loss of lives, massively destroyed infrastructure, displacement, and affected the livelihoods of local people. Some of the displaced persons remain in camps. The Government, in collaboration with various non-governmental organisations and UN agencies such as UN-Habitat, have been leading efforts towards reconstructing houses, schools and hospitals destroyed or affected by the Cyclone.

While in Malawi, the team visited Lilongwe, where officials from the  Department of Disaster Management Affairs  (DODMA) and the  Ministry of Foreign Affairs  received the joint assessment team. The group additionally held intensive discussions with various clusters that participated in response to Cyclone Freddy. The delegation also visited the City of Blantyre and engaged officials from the Blantyre City Council and districts affected by the Cyclone, including Nsanje.

The assessment identified important best practices. In Madagascar, decentralisation of disaster risk management down to local level enabled the government to respond swiftly, hence minimised losses. The BNGRC also utilises internal resources to support disaster risk management activities. Madagascar also utilised its burst experience and expertise in managing cyclones, wildfires, droughts and floods to quick activate its emergency command systems. Similar decentralisation of disaster risk management in Mozambique, and Malawi was commended for its effectiveness in responding to the cyclone at local level. In Mozambique, the INDG has assets and staff deployed at provincial level, enabling to quickly mobilise national assets in response to disasters. the INGD reach also reaches the grassroots level. In Blantyre, the City Council quickly reviewed its master plan, taking into account new hazards, such as landslides.

Effective disaster risk communication helped minimised the impact of the cyclone. In Mozambique, alerts were reported about the oncoming Cyclone reaching 3.8 million people in the affected provinces. Also, the Disaster Risk Reduction agencies and organisations cited the references to the regular outlooks produced by the Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF) that advise approaches to disaster risk reduction planning. In Malawi a community in Quelimane moved to safer grounds that were previously identified before the cyclone. Therefore, there was no relocation in the community this year after Cyclone Freddy made landfall in the area.

The three countries made important progress in strengthen risk governance. Having experienced frequent cyclones, Mozambique reviewed it national disaster risk management policy and strategy, guided by the  Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 , and made the BNGRC became a public structure in 2019.  Malawi has reinforced its Disaster Risk Management Department (DRMD) with new Bill, which empowers the department to deploy the nation’s resources to protect lives and livelihood.

International cooperation and good neighbourliness that was demonstrated by African countries and international partners are important lessons that should ne up scaled. The Mozambicans along the border with Malawi were housed in camps on the Malawi side, and the Government of Malawi supported them until their repatriation to Mozambique.Similarly Mozambique provided relief to Malawi despite having been hit by Cyclone Freddy too.

The joint assessment recommended series of action that should be undertaken to support recovery efforts. These include, deployment of recovery experts to support the affected states in their recovery efforts, prioritise support to the most affected provinces through existing continental initiatives such as Africa Urban Resilience Programme and Africa Multi-hazard Early Warning and Early Action System (AMHEWAS) Programme.

The joint assessment team is finalizing a full report, which will be shared with the three countries in the coming weeks.

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Mozambique: severe tropical storm freddy - flash update no. 10 (as of 15 march 2023), attachments.

The confluence of multiple crises is compounding a severe humanitarian situation in Mozambique.

Freddy made its second landfall in Mozambique as severe tropical cyclone in the evening of 11 March, through the locality of Macuze, district of Namacurra, Zambezia province, with maximum winds of 148 km/h and gusts up to 213 km/h.

Rainfall brought by Freddy reached more than 600mm in some places. This precipitation is four times greater than the average monthly precipitation during the rainy season.

Preliminary data indicate that Freddy’s second landfall affected some 253,466 people across Zambezia, Sofala, Tete, Manica and Niassa. This in addition to the 239,000 people affected by floods and Freddy’s first landfall.

The cholera outbreak continues to spread. As of 15 March, the cumulative number of cholera cases stood at 8,877 cases and 54 deaths across 33 districts.

SITUATION OVERVIEW

The National Institute of Meteorology (INAM) reports that tropical cyclone Freddy made its second landfall in Mozambique on 11 March, between 18:00 and 20:00 local time, through the locality of Macuze, district of Namacurra, Zambézia province, with maximum winds of 148 km/h and gusts up to 213 km/h.

Rainfall brought by Freddy reached more than 600mm in some places, particularly in the Districts of Marromeu (672mm), Mocuba (581mm), Milange (529mm) and Morrumbala (491mm). This precipitation is four times greater than the average monthly precipitation during the rainy season.

As of 15 March, Freddy has weakened to a low pressure system. However, rainfalls above 100 mm/24hrs are expected to continue over Nampula and Zambezia provinces that in the period between 12 and 15 March received heavy rainfall above 200 mm/24hrs. Heavy rains and flooding are a concern as the cholera outbreak continues to spread. As of 15 March, the cumulative number of cholera cases stood at 8,877 cases and 54 deaths across 33 districts. Vanduzi district in Manica province is the latest having been affected by cholera. This is an increase of 901 cases since a week ago.

According to latest data from the National Institute for Disaster Risk Management (INGD), Cyclone Freddy affected a total of 253,466 people across Zambezia (211,784 affected and 53 deaths reported), Sofala (33,435) Tete (6,834) Manica (1,182) and Niassa (231) provinces. In terms of damage, some 48,134 houses were partially or totally destroyed while some 191,562 hectares were damaged and an additional 38,000 hectares have been lost. Some 52 health units and 1,561classrooms were also damaged. As of 15 March, some 49,159 people have been displaced and 139 accommodations centers have been established.

The figures of people affected are likely to increase further as rains and floods continue and more assessments are undertaken. Authorities report that an increase in the volume of water discharges is expected in the hydrographic basins of

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Cyclone Freddy wrecks Malawi and Mozambique, killing more than 200 people

The Associated Press

Women walk to a nearby displacement center in Blantyre, Malawi, on Tuesday. The unrelenting Cyclone Freddy, which is still battering southern Africa, has killed hundreds of people in Malawi and Mozambique since it struck the continent for a second time on Saturday night. Thoko Chikondi/AP hide caption

Women walk to a nearby displacement center in Blantyre, Malawi, on Tuesday. The unrelenting Cyclone Freddy, which is still battering southern Africa, has killed hundreds of people in Malawi and Mozambique since it struck the continent for a second time on Saturday night.

BLANTYRE, Malawi — The devastating Tropical Cyclone Freddy which has ripped through southern Africa in a rare second landfall has killed at least 216 people in Malawi and Mozambique since Saturday night, with the death toll expected to rise.

Heavy rains that triggered floods and mudslides have killed 199 people in Malawi, authorities said Tuesday. President Lazarus Chakwera declared a "state of disaster" in the country's southern region and the now-ravaged commercial capital, Blantyre. Some 19,000 people in the south of the nation have been displaced, according to Malawi's disaster management directorate.

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"Power and communications are down in many affected areas, hindering aid operations," said Stephane Dujarric, the U.N. Secretary General's spokesperson at a press briefing Tuesday afternoon. The most affected regions remain inaccessible so the full extent of the damage is so far unknown.

Reports from Mozambique's disaster institute on Tuesday confirmed that 17 people have died in the country and 1,900 homes have been destroyed in the coastal Zambezia province. Tens of thousands of people are still holed up in storm shelters and accommodation centers.

Mothers and their children sit Tuesday at a displacement center in Blantyre, Malawi. Thoko Chikondi/AP hide caption

Mothers and their children sit Tuesday at a displacement center in Blantyre, Malawi.

Freddy will continue to thump central Mozambique and southern Malawi with extreme rainfall before it exits back to the sea late Wednesday afternoon, the U.N.'s meteorological center on the island of Réunion projected.

Human rights group Amnesty International has called on the international community to mobilize resources and boost aid and rescue efforts in the two countries. Relief efforts in the nations are strained and were already battling a cholera outbreak when Freddy struck.

"It is clear that the official death toll will rise in both Malawi and Mozambique, as will reports of wrecked infrastructure," saidTigere Chagutah, Amnesty International's east and southern Africa director. "The affected countries must also be compensated for loss and damage caused by the cyclone."

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In November last year, nations agreed to compensate countries affected by extreme weather exacerbated by human-caused climate change. Cyclones are wetter, more frequent and more intense as the planet heats up, scientists say.

"Mozambique and Malawi are among the countries least responsible for climate change, yet they are facing the full force of storms that are intensifying due to global warming driven mostly by carbon emissions from the world's richest nations," Chagutah added.

A road connecting the cities of Blantyre and Lilongwe is seen damaged Tuesday in Malawi following heavy rains caused by Tropical Cyclone Freddy. Thoko Chikondi/AP hide caption

A road connecting the cities of Blantyre and Lilongwe is seen damaged Tuesday in Malawi following heavy rains caused by Tropical Cyclone Freddy.

Cyclone Freddy has been causing destruction in southern Africa since late February. It also pummeled the island states of Madagascar and Réunion last month as it traversed across the Indian Ocean.

The cyclone has intensified a record seven times and has the highest-ever recorded accumulated cyclone energy, or ACE, which is a measurement of how much energy a cyclone has released over time. Freddy recorded more energy over its lifetime than an entire typical U.S. hurricane season.

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Freddy first developed near Australia in early February and is set to be the longest-ever recorded tropical cyclone. The U.N.'s weather agency has convened an expert panel to determine whether it has broken the record set by Hurricane John in 1994 of 31 days.

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Southern Africa: Cyclone Freddy aftermath brings diseases, healthcare gaps

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Southern African countries hit hard by tropical Cyclone Freddy are reeling from disease outbreaks, with health services stretched to the limit, the World Health Organization (WHO) said on Thursday.

The devastation caused by the cyclone in Madagascar, Malawi and Mozambique has increased the spread of cholera and malaria, as well as malnutrition.

Meanwhile, more than 300 health facilities have been destroyed or flooded in the three countries, limiting health care access.

The cyclone’s destruction increased public health risks including a surge in the spread of cholera, malaria, malnutrition, COVID-19 , and other vaccine-treatable diseases.

WHO continues to support efforts to control the #cholera outbreaks in #Malawi 🇲🇼 & #Mozambique 🇲🇿, including setting up or revamping 26 cholera treatment centres & units where patients receive quality & efficient health care. https://t.co/9YWgGcsnix World Health Organization (WHO) WHO March 23, 2023

WHO said that Malawi was still in the midst of its “worst-ever” cholera outbreak, although cases are declining. In Mozambique, cholera cases have more than doubled over the past week, to almost 2,400 .

“ With a double landfall in less than a month, the impact of Cyclone Freddy is immense and deepfelt ”, said Dr Matshidiso Moeti, World Health Organization (WHO) Regional Director for Africa.

“While we work to understand the full extent of the devastation, our priority is to ensure that affected communities and families receive health assistance for immediate needs as well as to limit the risks of water-borne diseases and other infections spreading,”

Helping communities prepare for climatic hazards

Overall, flooding, and torrential rains have affected more than 1.4 million people in the three countries. WHO and partners are providing support in the form of cholera treatment centers, medical supplies, and health worker training.

WHO has provided U$7.9 million and sent over 60 experts to the affected countries to assist with the emergency response.

Around 184 tons of important medical supplies have been shipped to support the cyclone and cholera emergency response. In Malawi, WHO has redistributed cholera response operation centres to hotspot districts, to help disease control efforts.

“With the rise in climate-related health emergencies in Africa, it’s clear that more needs to be done to bolster preparedness to climatic hazards so that communities can better cope with the impacts of the devastating natural disasters,” said Dr Moeti.

The cholera outbreaks are currently affecting 14 African countries and are being made worse by extreme climate events and conflicts that leave countries more vulnerable. Many people have been forced to flee their homes, to face uncertain living conditions.

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Long-lived Tropical Cyclone Freddy Brings Heavy Rain and Flooding to Madagascar and Mozambique

Updated March 17, 2023

Originally Published March 3, 2023

Tropical Cyclone Freddy first made landfall along the east coast of Madagascar just north of the town of Mananjary on Feb. 21, 2023, as a Category 3 cyclone with average winds reported at ~81 mph (130 km/h) and gusts up to ~112 mph (180 km/h).  After crossing over Madagascar Freddy continued westward over the Mozambique Channel before making landfall again along the east coast of Mozambique just south of Vilankulos as a moderate tropical storm with sustained winds estimated at 50 mph.  Despite being weaker at landfall, Freddy caused widespread flooding across parts of Mozambique due to the storm stalling out near the coast after making landfall.

Incredibly, Freddy drifted back out over the Mozambique Channel, nearly making landfall along the southwest coast of Madagascar. It then changed direction, re-intensified, weakened, re-intensified one last time, and made landfall once again on March 11 near Quelimane, Mozambique, as a Category 1 cyclone with sustained winds reported at 90 mph.

Meteorologically, Freddy has been a remarkable storm, lasting over five weeks to become likely the  longest-lived tropical cyclone in recorded history .  Freddy originated from a weak area of low pressure that was embedded in a monsoon trough of low pressure stretching east-west across the Timor Sea between northern Australia and southern Indonesia.  On Feb 6, 15 days before it would make its first landfall in Madagascar, both the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and the US Joint Typhoon Warning Center reported the formation of Tropical Cyclone Freddy about 420 miles northwest of the northwest coast of Australia.  In a rare but not unprecedented event, Freddy tracked across the entire Indian Ocean from east to west in almost a straight line with very little deviation in latitude.  Along the way, Freddy underwent four separate rapid intensification cycles, the first southern hemisphere storm in history to do so. After hitting Mozambique the first time and re-emerging back over the Mozambique Channel, Freddy underwent at two additional rapid intensification cycles resulting from the competing effects of warm water, wind shear and dry air. Freddy was also the first storm to the reach the equivalent of Category 5 intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale for 2023.  In addition to being likely the longest-lived tropical cyclone in recorded history, Freddy set the record for having the highest accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) of any storm in the Southern Hemisphere. ACE is an index used to measure the total amount of wind energy associated with a tropical cyclone over its lifetime.

GPM IMERG precipitation rates and totals from Tropical Cyclone Freddy, Feb. 6 - March 12, 2023. Credit: NASA 

Download in high resolution from the NASA Goddard Scientific Visualization Studio

NASA’s IMERG satellite precipitation product is ideal for monitoring and studying tropical cyclones around the world, especially over the open ocean where ground-based observations are sparse.  IMERG uses precipitation estimates from a constellation of satellites united by the GPM Core Observatory to generate maps of global precipitation updated every 30 minutes in near real-time.  The above animation shows IMERG surface rainfall estimates associated with the passage of Tropical Cyclone Freddy across the Indian Ocean as well as Freddy’s corresponding track and intensity.  The animation begins at on Feb. 6, 2023, just before Freddy is about to form northwest of Australia.  Over the course of the storm’s history, IMERG reveals a variety of precipitation features and trends that relate closely to the variations in Freddy’s intensity. 

Tropical cyclones derive their energy from latent heating, which comes primarily from cloud condensation.  Although essentially undetectable directly, the most significant latent heat release occurs within deep convective towers, which are associated with high cold cloud tops and areas of heavy rain at the surface.  The IMERG animation illustrates this association between increased surface rain intensity and storm intensity - whenever Freddy undergoes a period of intensification, it is preceded by an increase in heavy rain.  However, for the storm to really respond to the latent heating, that heating must occur near the storm’s center.  For example, IMERG shows heavier rain on Feb. 8, but it is too far north of the center, and Freddy continues to weaken.  Conversely, an absence of heavy rain near the center typically causes the storm to weaken.  IMERG is also able to broadly resolve Freddy’s structure over the course of its lifetime, ranging from a highly asymmetrical rain field with most of the rain located on one side of the center, which occurs when the storm is weak or undergoing wind shear, to symmetrical when the storm is stronger, to having a full eye when the storm has an intense and well-developed circulation.

The end of the animation shows the total estimated rainfall for the entire period.  IMERG shows that although heavy rain near the core of the storm is key to the storm maintaining or increasing in intensity, the highest overall rainfall totals are much more closely correlated to slow storm speed as evidenced by the extreme rainfall totals over Mozambique despite Freddy having weakened to a tropical storm.  Here Freddy essentially stalls out for several days (Feb. 24 to March 2), allowing a sizeable portion of the storm’s circulation to remain over the warm waters of the Mozambique Channel and rainbands to continuously form and move inland.  The result is rainfall totals on the order of ~16 to 31 inches (~400 to 800 mm, shown in purple) over parts of southern Mozambique and along the coast.  Peak rainfall totals over Madagascar, where Freddy moved steadily across the island, are on the order of ~16 inches (400 mm). According to the latest media reports Freddy has been responsible for over 300 deaths in Mozambique, Madagascar and Malawi, and has caused widespread damage throughout these regions.

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Impacts and Lessons from Tropical Cyclone Freddy

An assessment undertaken by the African Union Commission (AUC) jointly with the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) on the impact of Tropical Cyclone Freddy in Madagascar, Mozambique and Malawi, identified important lessons for recovery. The assessment took place end of August 2023.

The Cyclone hit first Mozambique during the fourth week of February as it made a turn to Madagascar causing severe destruction in the town of Mananjary in Madagascar before it made a second landfall in Mozambique as it headed to Malawi. This made Cyclone Freddy a record-breaking, becoming the longest-lasting tropical cyclone ever recorded worldwide. Additionally, it became the third-deadliest tropical cyclone recorded in the Southern Hemisphere, after Cyclone Idai in 2019 and Cyclone Flores in 1973.

One week before Cyclone Freddy could hit Mozambique, H.E. Filipe Jacinto Nyusi, President of the Republic of Mozambique and the AU Champion of Disaster Risk Reduction, made a landmark   visit to the AMHEWAS Situation Room for Disaster Risk Reduction  on 17 February  2023, at a time when the AMHEWAS Situation Room was monitoring the Cyclone Freddy as it was heading to Madagascar and Mozambique. Cognisance of devastating impacts that Madagascar experienced in 2022, President Nyusi requested the AUC to support Madagascar as its braces for the impact from Cyclone Freddy.

In fulfilment of the AU’s Champion call, the assessment mission was undertaken to assess the impact of the Cyclone in the affected countries, to identify lessons and opportunities for resilience building.

Mr Harsen Nyambe Nyambe, the AUC Director of  Sustainable Environment and Blue Economy  (SEBE), headed the delegation. The AUC delegation comprised of officers from the Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) Unit, the Directorate of Information and Communication (DIC) and the  Department of Health, Humanitarian Affairs and Social Development . Mr Anderson Banda, the Director of the SADC  Humanitarian and Emergency Operations Centre  (SHOC), represented the SADC. Three experts from the United Nations Development Programme also participated in the mission. Representative of the Embassies and Permanent Mission of the three countries participated in the mission. The team had first-hand interactions with the authorities and communities ravaged by the Cyclone in Mananjary in Madagascar, Quelimane in Mozambique, and Blantyre in Malawi. 

In Madagascar , Hon. Tokely Justin, Minister of Interior and Decentralisation of the Republic of Madagascar received the team upon arrival. Hon. Tokely highlighted that the country is always on the Cyclone path and is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. The Minister was also accompanied by the  National Office for Risk and Disaster Management  (BNGRC). Hon. Tokely also appreciated the support offered by the African Union earlier in 2023 in the aftermath of Cyclone Freddy. While in Madagascar, the team visited the town of Mananjary, in the region of Vatovavy, where the Cyclone hit. Mananjary has been devastated by many cyclones, including the Batsirai in early 2022 and Freddy in 2023. Cyclone Freddy destroyed hospitals and health centres, and 58,000 children were out of schools after the destruction of their classrooms. Also, the community is facing acute malnutrition.

In Mozambique , the group first held discussions with the  National Institute for Disaster Risk Management  (INGD) and other sectors including meteorology, education and housing, through the United Nations Human Settlements Programme (UN-Habitat). The team also visited the city of Quelimane, in the province of Zambezia, and interacted with communities directly affected by Cyclone Freddy in Namitangurine. The group later held talks with the Office of the Secretary of State in Quelimane. In , Quelimane, Cyclone Freddy resulted in the loss of lives, massively destroyed infrastructure, displacement, and affected the livelihoods of local people. Some of the displaced persons remain in camps. The Government, in collaboration with various non-governmental organisations and UN agencies such as UN-Habitat, have been leading efforts towards reconstructing houses, schools and hospitals destroyed or affected by the Cyclone.

While in Malawi , the team visited Lilongwe, where officials from the  Department of Disaster Management Affairs  (DODMA) and the  Ministry of Foreign Affairs  received the joint assessment team. The group additionally held intensive discussions with various clusters that participated in response to Cyclone Freddy. The delegation also visited the City of Blantyre and engaged officials from the Blantyre City Council and districts affected by the Cyclone, including Nsanje.

The assessment identified important b est practices . In Madagascar, d ecentralisation of disaster risk management down to local level enabled the government to respond swiftly, hence minimised losses. The BNGRC also utilises internal resources to support disaster risk management activities. Madagascar also utilised its burst experience and expertise in managing cyclones, wildfires, droughts and floods to quick activate its emergency command systems. Similar decentralisation of disaster risk management in Mozambique, and Malawi was commended for its effectiveness in responding to the cyclone at local level. In Mozambique, the INDG has assets and staff deployed at provincial level, enabling to quickly mobilise national assets in response to disasters. the INGD reach also reaches the grassroots level. In Blantyre, the City Council quickly reviewed its master plan, taking into account new hazards, such as landslides.

Effective d isaster risk communication helped minimised the impact of the cyclone.  In Mozambique, alerts were reported about the oncoming Cyclone reaching 3.8 million people in the affected provinces. Also, the Disaster Risk Reduction agencies and organisations cited the references to the regular outlooks produced by the Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF) that advise approaches to disaster risk reduction planning. In Malawi a community in Quelimane moved to safer grounds that were previously identified before the cyclone. Therefore, there was no relocation in the community this year after Cyclone Freddy made landfall in the area.

The three countries made important progress in strengthen risk governance. Having experienced frequent cyclones, Mozambique reviewed it national disaster risk management policy and strategy, guided by the  Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 , and made the BNGRC became a public structure in 2019.  Malawi has reinforced its Disaster Risk Management Department (DRMD) with new Bill, which empowers the department to deploy the nation’s resources to protect lives and livelihood.

International cooperation and good neighbourliness that was demonstrated by African countries and international partners are important lessons that should ne up scaled. The Mozambicans along the border with Malawi were housed in camps on the Malawi side, and the Government of Malawi supported them until their repatriation to Mozambique.Similarly Mozambique provided relief to Malawi despite having been hit by Cyclone Freddy too.

The joint assessment recommended series of action that should be undertaken to support recovery efforts. These include, deployment of recovery experts to support the affected states in their recovery efforts, prioritise support to the most affected provinces through existing continental initiatives such as Africa Urban Resilience Programme and Africa Multi-hazard Early Warning and Early Action System (AMHEWAS) Programme.

The joint assessment team is finalizing a full report, which will be shared with the three countries in the coming weeks.

For further information, please contact:

Mr. Gatkuoth Kai | Technical Coordinator for Disaster Risk Reduction| Directorate of Sustainable Environment and Blue Economy, | E-mail: [email protected] | WhatsApp: +251 909537884

For media enquiry:

Mr. Molalet Tsedeke, Information and Communications Directorate | African Union Commission|+251-911-630 631; [email protected]

Ms . Maryanne Muriuki, Communications Analyst, Disaster Risk Reduction Unit, Department of Agriculture, Rural Development, Blue Economy and Sustainable Environment, AU Commission. Email: [email protected] Information and Communication Directorate, African Union Commission I E-mail: [email protected] I

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Mozambique: severe tropical storm freddy - flash update no. 10 (as of 15 march 2023), attachments.

The confluence of multiple crises is compounding a severe humanitarian situation in Mozambique.

Freddy made its second landfall in Mozambique as severe tropical cyclone in the evening of 11 March, through the locality of Macuze, district of Namacurra, Zambezia province, with maximum winds of 148 km/h and gusts up to 213 km/h.

Rainfall brought by Freddy reached more than 600mm in some places. This precipitation is four times greater than the average monthly precipitation during the rainy season.

Preliminary data indicate that Freddy’s second landfall affected some 253,466 people across Zambezia, Sofala, Tete, Manica and Niassa. This in addition to the 239,000 people affected by floods and Freddy’s first landfall.

The cholera outbreak continues to spread. As of 15 March, the cumulative number of cholera cases stood at 8,877 cases and 54 deaths across 33 districts.

SITUATION OVERVIEW

The National Institute of Meteorology (INAM) reports that tropical cyclone Freddy made its second landfall in Mozambique on 11 March, between 18:00 and 20:00 local time, through the locality of Macuze, district of Namacurra, Zambézia province, with maximum winds of 148 km/h and gusts up to 213 km/h.

Rainfall brought by Freddy reached more than 600mm in some places, particularly in the Districts of Marromeu (672mm), Mocuba (581mm), Milange (529mm) and Morrumbala (491mm). This precipitation is four times greater than the average monthly precipitation during the rainy season.

As of 15 March, Freddy has weakened to a low pressure system. However, rainfalls above 100 mm/24hrs are expected to continue over Nampula and Zambezia provinces that in the period between 12 and 15 March received heavy rainfall above 200 mm/24hrs. Heavy rains and flooding are a concern as the cholera outbreak continues to spread. As of 15 March, the cumulative number of cholera cases stood at 8,877 cases and 54 deaths across 33 districts. Vanduzi district in Manica province is the latest having been affected by cholera. This is an increase of 901 cases since a week ago.

According to latest data from the National Institute for Disaster Risk Management (INGD), Cyclone Freddy affected a total of 253,466 people across Zambezia (211,784 affected and 53 deaths reported), Sofala (33,435) Tete (6,834) Manica (1,182) and Niassa (231) provinces. In terms of damage, some 48,134 houses were partially or totally destroyed while some 191,562 hectares were damaged and an additional 38,000 hectares have been lost. Some 52 health units and 1,561classrooms were also damaged. As of 15 March, some 49,159 people have been displaced and 139 accommodations centers have been established.

The figures of people affected are likely to increase further as rains and floods continue and more assessments are undertaken. Authorities report that an increase in the volume of water discharges is expected in the hydrographic basins of

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Mozambique humanitarian needs and response plan 2024 (december 2023) [en/pt], mozambique - complex emergency and tropical cyclone fact sheet #4 fiscal year (fy) 2023, mozambique response: cyclone freddy, floods and cholera (as 31 of august 2023).

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Tropical Cyclone Freddy hammers Mozambique for second time

Record-breaking Cyclone Freddy made its second landfall in the Mozambique city of Quelimane, the capital of low-lying Zambezia province.

Trees are strewn across a street in Quelimane, Mozambique, Saturday, March 11, 2023. Record breaking Cyclone Freddy, will make its second landfall in Mozambique on Sunday morning as an “intense tropical cyclone”. (AP Photo)

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MOMBASA, Kenya (AP) — Record-breaking Cyclone Freddy made its second landfall in Mozambique on Saturday night, pounding the southern African nation with heavy rains and disrupting transport and telecommunications services.

French weather agency Météo-France warned of “destructive and devastating” winds and “dangerous seas and heavy rains” that could lead to landslides. It said Freddy will go further inland through the weekend, generating heavy rains in Mozambique and southern Malawi, with rain also likely in Zimbabwe and Zambia.

Its the second time Freddy has hit the country, with the cyclone originally making landfall late last month .

Météo-France also raised concerns that Freddy is unlikely to weaken over land in the coming week and has a high probability of exiting back into the sea. Freddy made landfall with maximum wind speeds at sea measuring 155 kilometers (around 100 miles) an hour and sea gusts averaging 220 kilometers (around 140 miles) an hour, the agency said.

Freddy was initially on course to make landfall in the country Friday night but stalled over the Mozambique channel. The cyclone then intensified on Saturday and regained strength as it barreled toward land, Mozambique’s National Institute of Meteorology said.

The cyclone’s second punch was showering a low-lying, vast land teeming with rivers and “almost all of them have no dam” to ease flooding, said Salomao Bandeira, a scientist at Mozambique’s Universidade Eduardo Mondlane. Flooding in the country earlier this year slammed regions where major rivers are controlled by dams, allowing some degree of control, Bandeira said, raising fears this hit could lead to more destruction.

The projected deluge is already worrying health and disaster agencies in both Mozambique and Malawi, who have recently been battling cholera cases and other water-borne ailments. The U.N. and EU-led disaster alert system has already issued a red alert projecting that some 2.3 million people will be impacted. Mozambique’s disaster institute has moved thousands of people to storm shelters in anticipation.

“More lives are being saved in Mozambique today” due to early preparedness, Bandeira said.

In a statement released Saturday, Malawi Red Cross said it had activated its early response teams in southern Malawi to prepare for the cyclone.

Earlier in the week, Freddy’s longevity and baffling trajectories caused the U.N. weather agency to set up a committee to determine whether it has broken the record as the longest-lasting tropical cyclone in recorded history after traversing more than 8,000 kilometres (5,000 miles) in the southern Indian Ocean.

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Freddy has already catapulted into the record books for the second-ever highest accumulated cyclone energy, or ACE, a measurement of a cyclone’s energy over time.

Freddy is also the third storm on record to last more than 22 days, said NOAA’s Carl Schreck. Hurricane John in 1994 and an unnamed Atlantic hurricane in 1899 are the other two. The natural weather event La Nina and a negative Indian Ocean Dipole, or a change of temperatures over the ocean, “may have produced ocean temperatures and atmospheric circulations that made an event like this more likely,” Schreck added.

Any storm that can remain at such a “strong intensity for so long and make two landfalls is important in terms of human impacts and in terms of science,” said Kristen Corbosiero, professor of atmospheric and environmental sciences at the University of Albany.

“Intense storms generally go through a series of eyewall replacement cycles and intensity fluctuations,” where the cyclone begins to develop a a new eye, Corbosiero said. “But Freddy didn’t have these cycles for most of its life cycle. Trying to understand why, will be a good research topic.”

Associated Press science writer Seth Borenstein contributed to this report from Washington, D.C. ___

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